The Statz NFL game simulator plays the Kansas City Chiefs at the Atlanta Falcons 10,000 times: Week 10 of the 2026 season, Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Chiefs win 58% of the games and the projected score is Chiefs 25, Falcons 23, a total of 47.9 points.
The likeliest pairing of scores is the Chiefs 21-27 and the Falcons 21-27, 8.2% of games on its own. The Chiefs win by 7 or more 39% of the time and the Falcons 25%; 46% of games are decided by one score and 2.9% go to overtime.
At the market's KC −3.5 the Chiefs cover in 48% of simulations; at its total of 47.5 the game goes over 51% of the time.
Score bands: Chiefs points down the side, Falcons points across| KC / ATL | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35+ |
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| 0–6 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
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| 7–13 | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
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| 14–20 | 0.9% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
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| 21–27 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
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| 28–34 | 1.1% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
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| 35+ | 0.8% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
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Winning margin| Margin | Chiefs | Falcons |
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| 1–6 | 19.0% | 17.3% |
| 7–12 | 15.6% | 11.7% |
| 13–18 | 11.4% | 7.1% |
| 19–24 | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| 25–30 | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| 31+ | 2.0% | 0.7% |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chiefs vs Falcons?
The Statz NFL game simulator makes the Kansas City Chiefs 58% favourites: they win 58 of every 100 simulations of this game, the Atlanta Falcons 42.
What is the predicted score for Chiefs vs Falcons?
The projected score is Kansas City Chiefs 25, Atlanta Falcons 23, a total of 47.9 points. The likeliest score range is the Chiefs 21-27 and the Falcons 21-27.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread against the Falcons?
At KC −3.5, the Chiefs cover in 48% of simulations and the Falcons in 52%.
Will Chiefs vs Falcons go over 47.5 points?
The simulator has the game over 47.5 points in 51% of games and under in 49%, around a projected total of 47.9.
How many points will the Chiefs score against the Falcons?
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to score 25 points, and they score 20 or more in 73% of simulations.
How many points will the Falcons score against the Chiefs?
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to score 23 points, and they score 20 or more in 63% of simulations.
Will Chiefs vs Falcons go to overtime?
2.9% of the simulations are level after 60 minutes and go to overtime.
Will Chiefs vs Falcons be a close game?
46% of the simulations are decided by one score (8 points or fewer), and 20% by a field goal or less.
How does the Statz NFL game simulator work?
It plays the game 10,000 times from the Statz projection model's spread and total for it, and counts the results: the winner, the score, the margin and every line. Each run is drawn fresh, and the model's figures are what the runs settle on.
Is the NFL game simulator free?
Yes. Every game of the week can be simulated free, with no account needed.