The Statz NFL game simulator plays the Los Angeles Chargers at the Baltimore Ravens 10,000 times: Week 10 of the 2026 season, Monday, November 16 at 8:15 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens win 69% of the games and the projected score is Chargers 18, Ravens 24, a total of 41.7 points.
The likeliest pairing of scores is the Chargers 14-20 and the Ravens 21-27, 8.4% of games on its own. The Ravens win by 7 or more 51% of the time and the Chargers 16%; 42% of games are decided by one score and 2.6% go to overtime.
At the market's BAL −4.5 the Ravens cover in 56% of simulations; at its total of 38.5 the game goes over 60% of the time.
Score bands: Chargers points down the side, Ravens points across| LAC / BAL | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35+ |
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| 0–6 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
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| 7–13 | 0.6% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
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| 14–20 | 0.9% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
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| 21–27 | 0.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
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| 28–34 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
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| 35+ | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
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Winning margin| Margin | Chargers | Ravens |
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| 1–6 | 14.6% | 18.4% |
| 7–12 | 8.7% | 17.2% |
| 13–18 | 4.7% | 14.3% |
| 19–24 | 2.1% | 9.7% |
| 25–30 | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| 31+ | 0.3% | 3.9% |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chargers vs Ravens?
The Statz NFL game simulator makes the Baltimore Ravens 69% favourites: they win 69 of every 100 simulations of this game, the Los Angeles Chargers 31.
What is the predicted score for Chargers vs Ravens?
The projected score is Los Angeles Chargers 18, Baltimore Ravens 24, a total of 41.7 points. The likeliest score range is the Chargers 14-20 and the Ravens 21-27.
Will the Ravens cover the spread against the Chargers?
At BAL −4.5, the Ravens cover in 56% of simulations and the Chargers in 44%.
Will Chargers vs Ravens go over 38.5 points?
The simulator has the game over 38.5 points in 60% of games and under in 40%, around a projected total of 41.7.
How many points will the Chargers score against the Ravens?
The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to score 18 points, and they score 20 or more in 42% of simulations.
How many points will the Ravens score against the Chargers?
The Baltimore Ravens are projected to score 24 points, and they score 20 or more in 69% of simulations.
Will Chargers vs Ravens go to overtime?
2.6% of the simulations are level after 60 minutes and go to overtime.
Will Chargers vs Ravens be a close game?
42% of the simulations are decided by one score (8 points or fewer), and 18% by a field goal or less.
How does the Statz NFL game simulator work?
It plays the game 10,000 times from the Statz projection model's spread and total for it, and counts the results: the winner, the score, the margin and every line. Each run is drawn fresh, and the model's figures are what the runs settle on.
Is the NFL game simulator free?
Yes. Every game of the week can be simulated free, with no account needed.