The Statz NFL game simulator plays the Buffalo Bills at the New York Jets 10,000 times: Week 10 of the 2026 season, Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium. The Bills win 74% of the games and the projected score is Bills 26, Jets 18, a total of 43.8 points.
The likeliest pairing of scores is the Bills 21-27 and the Jets 14-20, 8.1% of games on its own. The Bills win by 7 or more 56% of the time and the Jets 13%; 40% of games are decided by one score and 2.4% go to overtime.
At the market's BUF −8 the Bills cover in 51% of simulations; at its total of 50.5 the game goes over 31% of the time.
Score bands: Bills points down the side, Jets points across| BUF / NYJ | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35+ |
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| 0–6 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
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| 7–13 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
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| 14–20 | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
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| 21–27 | 3.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
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| 28–34 | 3.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
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| 35+ | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
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Winning margin| Margin | Bills | Jets |
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| 1–6 | 17.7% | 13.1% |
| 7–12 | 17.6% | 7.3% |
| 13–18 | 15.4% | 3.7% |
| 19–24 | 11.2% | 1.6% |
| 25–30 | 6.6% | 0.5% |
| 31+ | 5.2% | 0.2% |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bills vs Jets?
The Statz NFL game simulator makes the Buffalo Bills 74% favourites: they win 74 of every 100 simulations of this game, the New York Jets 26.
What is the predicted score for Bills vs Jets?
The projected score is Buffalo Bills 26, New York Jets 18, a total of 43.8 points. The likeliest score range is the Bills 21-27 and the Jets 14-20.
Will the Bills cover the spread against the Jets?
At BUF −8, the Bills cover in 51% of simulations and the Jets in 49%.
Will Bills vs Jets go over 50.5 points?
The simulator has the game over 50.5 points in 31% of games and under in 69%, around a projected total of 43.8.
How many points will the Bills score against the Jets?
The Buffalo Bills are projected to score 26 points, and they score 20 or more in 76% of simulations.
How many points will the Jets score against the Bills?
The New York Jets are projected to score 18 points, and they score 20 or more in 42% of simulations.
Will Bills vs Jets go to overtime?
2.4% of the simulations are level after 60 minutes and go to overtime.
Will Bills vs Jets be a close game?
40% of the simulations are decided by one score (8 points or fewer), and 17% by a field goal or less.
How does the Statz NFL game simulator work?
It plays the game 10,000 times from the Statz projection model's spread and total for it, and counts the results: the winner, the score, the margin and every line. Each run is drawn fresh, and the model's figures are what the runs settle on.
Is the NFL game simulator free?
Yes. Every game of the week can be simulated free, with no account needed.