Our model makes the Packers 64% favourites over the Vikings, with a projected score of 23-18. The market has Green Bay at -2.5 with a total of 42.5.
The Minnesota Vikings (6-2, 3rd in the NFC North) visit the Green Bay Packers (6-3, 4th in the NFC North) on Sunday 15 November at 1:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field. Our model makes the Packers the favourites, with a 64% win chance and a projected score of Packers 23, Vikings 18. The market has Packers -2.5, priced at 1.83 at bet365.
How the teams arrive
The Vikings are 3-2 in the last five. They fell 6-23 at home in the Bills game on 10 November, after a 15-19 loss at the Lions. Before that came wins of 16-10 over the Colts, 23-13 at the Saints and 15-10 over the Dolphins. The defence carries Minnesota: 14.5 points allowed a game ranks 1st of 32, and 305.8 yards allowed a game ranks 4th of 32. The offence scores 18.3 points a game (27th of 32) and gains 285.6 yards a game (29th of 32), with the passing game at 179.6 yards a game, 31st of 32. Third down sits at 33.3% (31st of 32), while a turnover margin of +5 ranks 6th of 32.
The Packers are 4-1 in the last five and won 45-27 in the Patriots game on 8 November. Before that they beat the Panthers 27-19 at home, lost 17-20 at the Lions, and beat the Cowboys 23-13 and the Bears 31-7 at home. Green Bay throw for 290.9 yards a game, 2nd of 32, but run for 68.2 a game, 32nd of 32. They score 24 points a game (12th of 32), gain 359.1 yards a game (13th of 32) and hold a turnover margin of +8, 2nd of 32. The defence allows 21.2 points a game (11th of 32) and 340.9 yards a game (13th of 32).
Injuries and starters
Minnesota have quarterback J.J. McCarthy out, and quarterback Kyler Murray is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Quarterback Carson Wentz (ankle), T.J. Hockenson (wrist), Jauan Jennings (calf) and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (ankle) are questionable.
Green Bay have running back Josh Jacobs out with a finger injury, along with Brant Banks and Anthony Campbell. Zaire Franklin is doubtful with a shin injury, and Savion Williams (groin) and Lukas Van Ness (back) are questionable.
Kirk Cousins and Jordan Love are the projected starting quarterbacks. The Vikings' depth chart has Jordan Mason at running back, Jordan Addison at WR1, Hockenson at tight end, Christian Darrisaw at tackle and Ingram-Dawkins on the edge. The Packers are without Jacobs, who heads their depth chart at running back. They have Matthew Golden at WR1, Tucker Kraft at tight end, Anthony Belton at tackle and Van Ness on the edge.
Where the game is won
The headline matchup is strength on strength. Green Bay's pass offence gains 290.9 yards a game, 2nd of 32, and Minnesota's pass defence allows 186.9 a game, also 2nd of 32. The edge in that matchup goes to the Packers.
Green Bay also hold the edge when Minnesota have the ball. The Vikings' passing game, at 179.6 a game and 31st of 32, faces a Packers pass defence allowing 231.9 a game (14th of 32). Their run game gains 106 a game (19th of 32) against a Green Bay rush defence allowing 109, 15th of 32.
Minnesota's edge is against the Packers' ground game. Green Bay run for 68.2 yards a game, 32nd of 32, while the Vikings' rush defence allows 118.9 a game, 18th of 32.
Over the last 8 games the Packers have allowed the most targets to wide receivers, 21.7 a game, and the 2nd most receptions to the position, 13.8 a game. They have also given up the 3rd most rushing touchdowns to running backs, 1.2 a game. The Vikings are tied 9th for most rush attempts allowed to running backs, at 24 a game.
Players to watch
Justin Jefferson has 56.1 receiving yards a game across 7 games and faces a defence that allows the most targets to wide receivers. His receiving yards line is 77.5, at 1.86 on both sides at bet365.
Kirk Cousins has a passing yards line of 235.5, at 1.86 either way at bet365.
Aaron Jones Sr. runs for 59.3 yards a game across 8 games, against a defence that allows the 3rd most rushing touchdowns to running backs. His rushing yards line is 30.5, at 1.86 on both sides at bet365.
Jordan Love averages 290.9 passing yards a game across 9 games and has 5 games in a row with 250+ passing yards. His passing yards line is 257.5, at 1.86 either way at bet365.
Christian Watson averages 97.7 receiving yards a game across 9 games and has 3 games in a row with 5+ receptions.
Matthew Golden adds 87 receiving yards a game and has 5 games in a row with 5+ receptions.
Vikings vs Packers odds
- Moneyline: Vikings 2.47 (Polymarket), Packers 1.68 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Vikings +2.5 at 2.00, Packers -2.5 at 1.83 (bet365)
- Total: 42.5, over 1.95, under 1.86 (bet365)
Vikings vs Packers prediction
Our model projects Packers 23, Vikings 18. It gives Green Bay a 64% win chance and Minnesota 36%. Our line is Packers -4.7 against the market's Packers -2.5, and our total is 40.6 against a market total of 42.5.
The Statz model gives GB -2.5 a 56% chance to cover and leans Packers -2.5 on the spread. It gives the Over 42.5 a 44% chance, puts a one-score game at 45% and a Packers win by 14+ at 26%. Minnesota have taken 4 of the last 6 meetings, including a 39-22 win on 13 September 2026.
Statz prediction: Packers 23-18
Lines can move before kickoff.