Our model makes the Houston Texans the favourite at 63%, projecting a 23-19 win at the Cleveland Browns. The market spread is Texans -4.5, with the total at 40.5.
The Houston Texans (3-5, 2nd in the AFC South) visit the Cleveland Browns (5-4, 3rd in the AFC North) on Sunday 15 November, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET at Huntington Bank Field. Our model makes the Texans the favourite, giving them a 63% win chance and projecting a 23-19 Houston win. The market spread has the Texans at -4.5 at 1.9, with the Browns +4.5 at 1.91.
How the teams arrive
The Texans are 3-2 in the last five. They come in off a 44-22 win at the Chargers on 8 November, after a 21-27 home loss to the Giants on 25 October. Before that they won 34-31 at the Jaguars and 26-3 at the Titans, and lost 30-34 at home to the Cowboys. Houston score 26.1 points a game, 9th of 32, and gain 369.4 yards a game, 10th of 32. They pass for 282.3 yards a game, 3rd of 32, and run for 87.1, 29th of 32. They convert 39.8% on third down, 13th of 32, and their turnover margin is +4, 8th of 32. The defence allows 24 points a game, 18th of 32, and 360 yards a game, 22nd of 32.
The Browns are 2-3 in the last five. They lost 22-23 at the Saints on 8 November and 6-27 at the Steelers on 1 November. Earlier they won 27-24 at the Titans and 13-10 at home to the Ravens, and lost 12-17 at the Jets. Cleveland score 17.9 points a game, 29th of 32, and gain 331.2 yards a game, 24th of 32. They pass for 233.9 yards a game, 18th of 32, and run for 97.3, 25th of 32. Third-down conversion is 34.2%, 29th of 32, with a turnover margin of +1, 14th of 32. The defence is the stronger unit: 21.8 points allowed a game, 12th of 32, and 350.8 yards allowed, 17th of 32.
Injuries and starters
Houston list several players as questionable. Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is questionable for a non-injury rest reason. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is questionable with a hamstring injury. Running backs Woody Marks (knee) and David Montgomery (groin) are both questionable, as is tight end Brevin Jordan with a finger injury. Wide receiver Jaylin Noel is on injured reserve.
For Cleveland, linebacker Nathaniel Watson is out with a knee injury and tight end Joe Royer is out. Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. (groin), wide receiver Denzel Boston (toe), linebacker Carson Schwesinger (wrist) and cornerback Denzel Ward (quadricep) are questionable.
The projected quarterbacks are C.J. Stroud for Houston and Deshaun Watson for Cleveland. The Texans project Marks at running back, Tank Dell as the top receiver, Dalton Schultz at tight end, Trent Brown at tackle and Anderson on the edge. The Browns project Quinshon Judkins at running back, Gage Larvadain as the top receiver, Fannin at tight end, Spencer Fano at tackle and Jared Verse on the edge.
Where the game is won
The Texans throw for 282.3 yards a game, 3rd of 32, and the Browns allow 220.2 passing yards a game, 6th of 32. The edge goes to Houston. On the ground the picture flips: the Texans run for 87.1 yards a game, 29th of 32, against a Cleveland run defence allowing 130.6 a game, 27th of 32, and the edge goes to the Browns.
When Cleveland have the ball, their pass offence at 233.9 yards a game, 18th of 32, faces a Houston pass defence giving up 257 a game, 29th of 32. That edge is with the Browns. Their run game at 97.3 yards a game, 25th of 32, meets a Houston run defence allowing 103 a game, 12th of 32, where the edge is with the Texans.
Over the last 8 games the Texans have given up the 2nd most receiving yards to wide receivers, 187.5 yards a game, and the 2nd most targets to wide receivers, 21.6 a game. They are also tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks at 0.4 a game. The Browns have given up the 2nd most rushing yards to running backs over the same span, 115.1 yards a game.
Players to watch
C.J. Stroud has 2251 passing yards in 8 games, 281.4 a game. He has thrown 2+ passing touchdowns in 3 games in a row. His rush attempts line is 3.5 at bet365, with the over at 2.05 and the under at 1.74.
Nico Collins has 384 receiving yards in 6 games, 64 a game. His receiving yards line is 60.5 at bet365, 1.86 either side.
Woody Marks leads the Houston backs with 341 rushing yards in 8 games, 42.6 a game, and is listed questionable. His rushing yards line is 60.5 at bet365, 1.86 either side.
Deshaun Watson has 1806 passing yards in 8 games, 225.8 a game, and adds 217 rushing yards, 27.1 a game.
Quinshon Judkins has 385 rushing yards in 8 games, 48.1 a game. His rush attempts line is 12.5 at bet365, 1.86 either side.
Denzel Boston leads Cleveland with 507 receiving yards in 9 games, 56.3 a game, and is listed questionable.
Texans vs Browns odds
- Moneyline: Texans 1.48 (Kalshi), Browns 3.17 (Polymarket)
- Spread: Texans -4.5 at 1.9, Browns +4.5 at 1.91 (bet365)
- Total: 40.5, over 1.94, under 1.87 (bet365)
Texans vs Browns prediction
Our model projects a 23-19 Texans win, with Houston at 63% to win and Cleveland at 37%. The Statz line is Texans -4.5, level with the market spread of -4.5, and our model gives Houston -4.5 a 50% chance to cover. Our total is 42.3 against a market total of 40.5, and the lean is the Over 40.5, which our model gives a 55% chance. It rates a one-score game at 45% and a Houston win by 14+ at 25%.
The series is CLE 4-2 over the last 6 meetings, and the Browns are unbeaten at home in it.
Statz prediction: Texans 23-19
Lines can move before kickoff.