Our model makes the Bengals 60% favourites against the Steelers, with a projected score of 25-22. The market has Bengals -3.5 and a total of 49.5.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 1st in the AFC North) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 2nd in the AFC North) on Sunday Night Football, with kickoff at 8:20 PM ET on Sunday 15 November at Paycor Stadium. Our model makes the Bengals the favourite, 60% to win, with a projected score of 25-22. The market has the Bengals -3.5.
How the teams arrive
The Steelers are 4-1 in their last five, and they have won four in a row since a 24-27 defeat at the Browns on 2 October, most recently beating the Browns 27-6 on 1 November. Their defence ranks high: 18 points allowed a game ranks 5th of 32, 325.9 yards allowed ranks 8th, and their turnover margin of +5 is 5th of 32. The attack sits in the middle of the league, 22.5 points a game and 17th of 32, with 351.8 yards a game, 15th. They run for 117.9 yards a game, 11th of 32, and convert 37.9% of third downs, 16th.
The Bengals are also 4-1 in their last five, with wins at the Falcons 34-17 on 8 November and over the Titans 43-36 the week before. Their offence is among the best in the league: 30 points a game, 2nd of 32, 383.9 yards a game, 6th, and 298.3 passing yards a game, 1st of 32. They convert 53.6% of third downs, 1st in the league. The run game is 30th of 32 at 85.6 yards a game, and the defence allows 21.9 points a game, 14th, and 375.3 yards a game, 27th of 32.
Injuries and starters
The Steelers have four players Out: cornerback Donte Kent, running back Max Hurleman, wide receiver Ben Skowronek and defensive tackle Kevin Jobity Jr. Running back Rico Dowdle and cornerback Cory Trice Jr. are Questionable. The Bengals have quarterback Josh Johnson and tight end Josh Kattus Out, with safety Kyle Dugger (quadricep), defensive tackle McKinnley Jackson and defensive ends Shemar Stewart and Cedric Johnson Questionable.
Aaron Rodgers starts at quarterback for the Steelers, with Jaylen Warren at running back, DK Metcalf at WR1, Darnell Washington at tight end, Max Iheanachor at tackle and Yahya Black on the edge. Joe Burrow starts for the Bengals, with Chase Brown at running back, Ja'Marr Chase at WR1, Mike Gesicki at tight end, Amarius Mims at tackle and Boye Mafe on the edge.
Where the game is won
The headline matchup is the Bengals' passing game against the Steelers' secondary. The Bengals throw for 298.3 yards a game, 1st of 32, and the Steelers allow 242 passing yards a game, 22nd of 32. Over their last 8 games the Steelers have also given up the most receiving yards to running backs, 46.9 a game, and are tied for the 2nd most receptions to the position, 5.8 a game.
The Steelers hold the edge in the other three matchups. Their passing game, 233.9 yards a game and 17th of 32, meets a Bengals pass defence at 248.6 a game, 23rd. Their run game, 117.9 yards a game and 11th, faces a Bengals run defence allowing 126.6 a game, 25th of 32. And the Bengals' run game, 85.6 yards a game and 30th of 32, runs into a Steelers run defence that gives up 83.9 a game, 3rd of 32.
Over their last 8 games the Bengals have allowed the 2nd most receiving yards to tight ends, 80.6 a game, and the most rushing yards to quarterbacks, 30.8 a game.
Players to watch
Joe Burrow averages 298.3 passing yards a game and has thrown 2 or more touchdown passes in four games in a row. His rushing line at bet365 is 5.5, at 1.86 either way.
Tee Higgins has 758 receiving yards in 8 games, 94.8 a game, and 5 or more catches in three games in a row. His receiving line is 73.5, at 1.86 both ways. Ja'Marr Chase adds 80.9 receiving yards a game and has 5 or more catches in four straight games.
Aaron Rodgers averages 233.9 passing yards a game, and his passing line is 242.5 at 1.86 on both sides.
Jaylen Warren has 88 rushing yards a game and adds 36.8 receiving yards a game. His receptions line is 3.5, 2.35 over and 1.58 under.
Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth both have receiving lines of 25.5 at 1.86, against a Bengals defence that has given up the 2nd most receiving yards to tight ends.
Steelers vs Bengals odds
The prices for Steelers vs Bengals, in decimal odds:
- Moneyline: Steelers 2.74 (Polymarket), Bengals 1.6 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Steelers +3.5 at 1.87, Bengals -3.5 at 1.94 (bet365)
- Total: 49.5 points, over 1.93, under 1.88 (bet365)
Steelers vs Bengals prediction
Our model projects a 25-22 Bengals win and gives the Bengals a 60% chance, against 40% for the Steelers. Our line is Bengals -3.3 against the market's Bengals -3.5, and our total of 47.3 sits under the market's 49.5. The model has the Bengals covering -3.5 49% of the time and the game going over 49.5 43% of the time, and its lean on the total is Under 50.5. It puts a one-score game at 46% and a Bengals win by 14 or more at 22%.
The Steelers lead the recent series 4-2 and won the first meeting this season 30-27 on 27 September 2026. Four of the last six meetings landed inside a score, and they have averaged 55 points.
Statz prediction: Bengals 25-22
Lines move before kickoff, and these prices can change by Sunday night.