Our model makes the Seahawks 70% favourites and projects a 26-19 win over the Raiders, with Seattle -6.5 on the market spread. The Seahawks bring the league's top-ranked yardage defence to Allegiant Stadium on Sunday 15 November.
The Seattle Seahawks (5-4, 2nd in the NFC West) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (4-5, 3rd in the AFC West) on Sunday 15 November at 4:05 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium. Our model makes the Seahawks the favourite with a 70% win chance and a projected score of Seahawks 26, Raiders 19. The market has Seattle at -6.5 on the spread.
How the teams arrive
The Seahawks are 2-3 in the last five. They beat the Cardinals 17-3 at home on 8 November, after a 17-34 home loss to the Bears. Before that came a 20-3 win over the Chiefs, a 14-17 loss at the Broncos and a 29-32 home loss to the 49ers. Seattle scores 22.4 points a game (18th of 32) and gains 342.9 yards a game (17th of 32). The defence is the strength: 18 points allowed a game ranks 4th of 32, and 257.9 yards allowed a game ranks 1st of 32. The turnover margin sits at -1 (18th of 32).
The Raiders are 1-4 in the last five. They lost 17-38 at the 49ers on 8 November, a week after a 38-33 win at the Jets. Home losses to the Rams (21-35) and Bills (30-33) and a 17-45 defeat at the Patriots complete the run. Las Vegas scores 26.4 points a game (8th of 32), with 266.8 passing yards a game (6th of 32) and a 43.8% third-down rate (6th of 32). The run game lags at 71.3 yards a game (31st of 32). The defence ranks 32nd of 32 in both points allowed (29.8 a game) and yards allowed (399.9 a game). The turnover margin is +1 (15th of 32).
Injuries and starters
Seattle is without quarterback Sam Darnold, who is Out with a ribs injury and heads the depth chart. Drew Lock is Questionable with an elbow injury. Running back Jacardia Wright (foot) and cornerback Terrion Arnold are Out. Tackle Charles Cross (ankle) and guard Quenton Nelson (knee) are Doubtful.
For Las Vegas, running back Roman Hemby is Out. Center Trey Zuhn III (concussion), defensive tackle Thomas Booker IV (ankle), linebacker Buddy Johnson and defensive tackle Adam Butler are Questionable.
The Raiders' projected starters are Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, Ashton Jeanty at running back, Tre Tucker at WR1, Brock Bowers at tight end, DJ Glaze at tackle and Malcolm Koonce at EDGE. Seattle's projected starters are Zach Charbonnet at running back, Cooper Kupp at WR1, AJ Barner at tight end, Charles Cross at tackle and Boye Mafe at EDGE.
Where the game is won
All four unit matchups favour Seattle. The Seahawks' pass offence (232.1 a game, 19th of 32) meets a Raiders pass defence that allows 248.7 a game (24th of 32). Seattle's rush offence (110.8 a game, 18th of 32) faces the league's weakest run defence, which gives up 151.2 a game (32nd of 32).
On the other side, the Las Vegas pass offence (266.8 a game, 6th of 32) runs into the best pass defence in the league, at 168.8 a game allowed (1st of 32). The Raiders' rush offence (71.3 a game, 31st of 32) meets a Seattle rush defence that allows 89.1 a game (4th of 32).
Over the last 9 games, the Raiders have given up the most rush yards to running backs, at 132.1 yards a game. They allow the 2nd most pass touchdowns to quarterbacks (2.2 a game) and the 3rd most receiving touchdowns to tight ends (0.9 a game). The Seahawks give up the 9th most receptions to running backs, at 4.8 a game, on 5.9 targets a game.
Players to watch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 1036 receiving yards in 9 games, or 115.1 a game. He has 14 games in a row with 5+ receptions. His receptions line is 7.5, at 2 for the over and 1.76 for the under at bet365.
Zach Charbonnet is the projected starter at running back against a defence that gives up the most rush yards to backs. His rushing yards line is 60.5, at 1.86 either way.
Emanuel Wilson has 403 rushing yards in 7 games, 57.6 a game. Jadarian Price adds 172 yards in 5 games, and his rushing yards line is 42.5 at 1.86.
Brock Bowers has 658 receiving yards in 7 games, or 94 a game. He has 7 games in a row with 60+ receiving yards. He faces a Seattle pass defence ranked 1st of 32.
Fernando Mendoza has a passing yards line of 181.5, at 1.86 for the over and the under. Kirk Cousins has 2340 passing yards in 9 games for Las Vegas this season, 260 a game.
Ashton Jeanty has 362 rushing yards in 9 games, 40.2 a game. His rushing yards line is 33.5 at 1.86. Tre Tucker has 529 receiving yards in 9 games, 58.8 a game.
Seahawks vs Raiders odds
- Moneyline: Seahawks 1.38, Raiders 3.64 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Seahawks -6.5 at 1.9, Raiders +6.5 at 1.9 (bet365)
- Total: 40.5, over 1.9, under 1.9 (bet365)
Seahawks vs Raiders prediction
Our model projects Seahawks 26, Raiders 19, with a 70% win chance for Seattle and 30% for Las Vegas. Our line is Seahawks -7.1 against the market's -6.5, and our total is 44.4 against a market total of 40.5. The Statz model gives SEA -6.5 a 52% chance to cover and makes the over 40.5 its total lean, at 62%. It puts a one-score game at 42% and a Seattle win by 14+ at 32%.
The last 2 meetings are split 1-1. Las Vegas won the most recent, 40-34 on 27 November 2022.
Statz prediction: Seahawks 26-19
Lines can move before kickoff, so check the latest prices before the game.