Our model makes the Colts 59% favourites and projects a 25-22 win over the Dolphins, with the market spread at Colts -3.5. The Dolphins are 1-4 in the last five and the Colts are 0-5.
The Miami Dolphins (1-7, 4th in the AFC East) visit the Indianapolis Colts (2-7, 3rd in the AFC South) on Sunday 15 November at 1:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. Our model makes the Colts the favourite with a 59% win chance and projects a 25-22 Indianapolis win. The market spread is Colts -3.5.
How the teams arrive
The Dolphins are 1-4 in the last five. Their win came 28-25 at the Jets on 25 October. Since then they have lost at home to the Patriots 19-24 and to the Lions 9-19 in the Lions game on 8 November. Miami score 15.8 points a game, 31st of 32, and gain 297.8 yards a game, 28th of 32. They pass for 180.3 yards a game, 30th of 32. They run for 117.5 yards a game, 12th of 32, and convert 41.6% on third down, 10th of 32. On defence they allow 25 points a game, 24th of 32, but only 336.4 yards a game, 11th of 32. Their turnover margin sits at -3, 24th of 32.
The Colts are 0-5 in the last five. They lost 7-42 at the Jaguars on 1 November and 23-27 at home to the Cowboys in the Cowboys game. Indianapolis score 20.4 points a game, 24th of 32, and gain 307.4 yards a game, 27th of 32. They throw for 192.2 yards a game, 27th of 32, and run for 115.2, 15th of 32. Third downs are a problem at 36.9%, 22nd of 32. The defence gives up 27.7 points a game, 30th of 32, and 375.3 yards a game, 26th of 32. Their turnover margin of -11 is 32nd of 32.
Injuries and starters
Miami are without their starting quarterback. Malik Willis heads the depth chart at QB but is on injured reserve with a groin injury. Running back De'Von Achane is also on injured reserve with a knee injury, and offensive tackle Liam Eichenberg is Out. Wide receivers Jared Wayne (quadricep) and Chris Bell (knee), and tight end Will Kacmarek (quadricep) are Questionable.
For the Colts, offensive tackle Jalen Travis is Doubtful with a knee injury. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox (groin), defensive tackle Jerry Tillery (calf), linebackers Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee) and Jaylon Carlies (neck), and long snapper Luke Rhodes (hamstring) are all Questionable.
The Dolphins project to start Ollie Gordon II at running back, Malik Washington at WR1, Ben Sims at tight end, Patrick Paul at tackle and Clelin Ferrell on the edge. The Colts project Daniel Jones at quarterback, Seth McGowan at running back, Keenan Allen at WR1, Tyler Warren at tight end, Luke Tenuta at tackle and Jaylahn Tuimoloau on the edge.
Where the game is won
The clearest edge for Miami is on the ground. The Dolphins rush for 117.5 yards a game, 12th of 32, against a Colts run defence that allows 137 a game, 30th of 32. The Colts also give up the 5th most rush yards to running backs, at 111.7 yards a game over the last 8 games.
The Colts hold the edge against the Miami passing game, which meets a pass defence allowing 238.3 yards a game, 17th of 32.
When the Colts have the ball, the Dolphins hold the pass matchup. Indianapolis throw for 192.2 yards a game, 27th of 32, against a Miami pass defence allowing 224.6, 10th of 32. The run matchup leans to the Colts: their 115.2 rushing yards a game, 15th of 32, meet a Dolphins run defence allowing 111.8, 16th of 32.
Tight ends are a target on both sides. Over the last 8 games the Dolphins allow the 6th most receiving TDs to tight ends at 0.8 a game, and the Colts are t-4th most at the same 0.8 a game. Miami also give up the most receiving TDs to running backs, 0.6 a game, and the 4th most pass TDs to quarterbacks, 2 a game.
Players to watch
Ollie Gordon II leads the Miami ground game with 463 rushing yards in 7 games, 66.1 a game. His rushing yards line is 72.5 at bet365, with 1.86 on both the over and the under.
Malik Washington has 350 receiving yards in 8 games, 43.8 a game. His receptions line is 3.5, priced 1.95 over and 1.8 under at bet365. Caleb Douglas adds 59.2 receiving yards a game across 5 games, and Tyreek Hill has 3 games in a row with 5+ receptions.
Daniel Jones has 1722 passing yards in 9 games, 191.3 a game. His passing yards line is 185.5 at bet365, at 1.86 either way.
Jonathan Taylor leads Indianapolis with 656 rushing yards in 9 games, 72.9 a game. His rushing yards line is 67.5, at 1.86 on both sides at bet365. Seth McGowan has 208 rushing yards at 23.1 a game, with a line of 24.5 at 1.86 either way.
Tyler Warren has a receiving yards line of 50.5 at bet365, at 1.86 on both sides. Keenan Allen has 351 receiving yards in 8 games, 43.9 a game.
Dolphins vs Colts odds
- Moneyline: Dolphins 2.99 (Kalshi), Colts 1.53 (Polymarket)
- Spread: Dolphins +3.5 at 1.94, Colts -3.5 at 1.87 (bet365)
- Total: 38.5, over 1.95, under 1.86 (bet365)
Dolphins vs Colts prediction
Our model projects a 25-22 Colts win, with win chances of 59% for Indianapolis and 41% for Miami. The Statz line is Colts -3.0 against the market's Colts -3.5, and our total of 46.8 is above the market's 38.5.
The Statz model has the Colts -3.5 covering 49% of the time, and puts the over 38.5 at 74%. It sees a one-score game 46% of the time and an Indianapolis win by 14+ at 22%. Our spread lean is Dolphins +4.5 and our total lean is Over 37.5.
The Colts have taken 4 of the last 5 meetings, and 3 of those 5 landed inside a score, with an average total of 38. The last meeting was a 33-8 Colts win in Week 1 2025.
Statz prediction: Colts 25-22
Lines can move before kickoff.