Our model makes the Chiefs 58% favourites over the Falcons, with a projected score of 25-23. The market has Kansas City at -3.5 with a total of 47.
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 2nd in the AFC West) visit the Atlanta Falcons (3-6, 4th in the NFC South) on Sunday 15 November at 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our model makes the Chiefs the favourites, with a 58% win chance and a projected score of Chiefs 25, Falcons 23. The market has Chiefs -3.5, priced at 2.00 at bet365.
How the teams arrive
The Chiefs are 3-2 in the last five and won 35-12 in the Jets game on 8 November. That followed road losses of 24-28 to the Broncos and 3-20 to the Seahawks. Before those, Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6 at home and the Raiders 30-27 on the road. The offence scores 25.3 points a game (10th of 32) and gains 392.4 yards a game (4th of 32), with 137.8 rushing yards a game ranking 5th of 32. The Chiefs convert 41.7% on third down (9th of 32) and hold a turnover margin of +4 (9th of 32). The defence is the strength: 17.9 points allowed a game ranks 3rd of 32, and 318 yards allowed a game ranks 7th of 32.
The Falcons are 1-4 in the last five. They lost 17-34 at home in the Bengals game on 8 November, a week after a 0-16 loss at the Buccaneers. The one win in that run was 29-20 over the 49ers on 25 October, between home losses of 23-31 to the Bears and 23-30 to the Ravens. Atlanta score 20.9 points a game (23rd of 32) and gain 333.4 yards a game (23rd of 32). The run game is the bright spot at 137.2 yards a game, 6th of 32, while the passing game sits at 196.2 yards a game (25th of 32). Third-down conversion is 34.9% (27th of 32), and the turnover margin of -8 ranks 30th of 32. The defence allows 24.8 points a game (20th of 32) and 360 yards a game (21st of 32).
Injuries and starters
Atlanta have quarterback Cooper Rush out, along with Anterio Thompson, Malik Heath and Troy Andersen. Quarterback Trevor Siemian and Cameron Thomas (groin) are questionable.
Kansas City have Ethan Driskell and Tyreke Smith out. Xavier Worthy, Jaydn Ott (hamstring), Peter Woods (neck) and Jaylon Moore (ankle) are questionable.
Patrick Mahomes and Michael Penix Jr. are the projected starting quarterbacks. The Chiefs' depth chart has Kenneth Walker III at running back, Worthy at WR1, Travis Kelce at tight end, Kahlil Benson at tackle and George Karlaftis on the edge. The Falcons have Bijan Robinson at running back, Jahan Dotson at WR1, Kyle Pitts Sr. at tight end, Jake Matthews at tackle and Thomas on the edge.
Where the game is won
Three of the four unit matchups favour Kansas City. The Chiefs' pass offence, at 254.6 yards a game and 11th of 32, meets an Atlanta pass defence allowing 241.2 a game, 20th of 32. Their run game gains 137.8 a game (5th of 32) against a Falcons rush defence allowing 118.8 (17th of 32). On the other side, Atlanta's passing game at 196.2 a game (25th of 32) faces a Chiefs pass defence allowing 220.5, 7th of 32.
Atlanta's edge is on the ground. The Falcons run for 137.2 yards a game (6th of 32), and the Chiefs' rush defence allows 97.5 a game, 10th of 32, with the matchup favouring Atlanta.
Over the last 8 games the Chiefs have allowed the 3rd most targets to tight ends, 9.5 a game, and are tied 3rd for most receptions allowed to tight ends, 6.6 a game. They have also given up the 3rd most field goals, 2.4 a game. The Falcons have allowed the 4th most targets to running backs, 7.1 a game, are tied 4th for most receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs at 0.3 a game, and are tied 5th for most receptions allowed to the position at 5.1 a game.
Players to watch
Patrick Mahomes averages 254.6 passing yards a game across 8 games for the Chiefs.
Kenneth Walker III runs for 109 yards a game over 8 games, and he meets a Falcons defence that allows the 4th most targets to running backs.
Travis Kelce has 60.3 receiving yards a game. His receiving yards line is 47.5, at 1.86 on both sides at bet365. Rashee Rice adds 58.4 receiving yards a game across 5 games, with a receiving yards line of 55.5 at 1.86 either way.
Bijan Robinson runs for 97.8 yards a game across 9 games, and he has 9 games in a row with 60+ rush yards.
Drake London has 76.9 receiving yards a game across 9 games. His receiving yards line is 71.5, at 1.86 on both sides at bet365.
Kyle Pitts Sr. faces a defence that allows the 3rd most targets to tight ends. His receiving yards line is 40.5, at 1.86 either way at bet365.
Chiefs vs Falcons odds
- Moneyline: Chiefs 1.60, Falcons 2.74 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5 at 2.00, Falcons +3.5 at 1.83 (bet365)
- Total: 47, over 1.80, under 1.86 (bet365)
Chiefs vs Falcons prediction
Our model projects Chiefs 25, Falcons 23. It gives Kansas City a 58% win chance and Atlanta 42%. Our line is Chiefs -2.8 against the market's Chiefs -3.5, and our total is 47.9 against a market total of 47.
The Statz model gives KC -3.5 a 48% chance to cover and the Over 47 a 53% chance. It puts a one-score game at 46% and a Chiefs win by 14+ at 21%. Kansas City have won the last 2 meetings, 22-17 in 2024 and 17-14 in 2020.
Statz prediction: Chiefs 25-23
Lines can move before kickoff.