Our model makes the Ravens 69% favourites against the Chargers, with a projected score of 24-18. The market has Ravens -4.5 and a total of 38.5.
The Los Angeles Chargers (0-8, 4th in the AFC West) visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-5, 4th in the AFC North) on Monday Night Football, with kickoff at 8:15 PM ET on Monday 16 November at M&T Bank Stadium. Our model makes the Ravens the favourite, 69% to win, with a projected score of 24-18. The market has the Ravens -4.5.
How the teams arrive
The Chargers are 0-5 in their last five and have not won this season. The latest defeat was 22-44 at home to the Texans on 8 November, after losses at the Rams and the Chiefs. They score 15.1 points a game, 32nd of 32, and gain 316.4 yards a game, 26th. They convert 34.2% of third downs, 28th of 32, and their turnover margin of -7 ranks 29th. The defence allows 27.4 points a game, 28th of 32, and 352.6 yards a game, 18th.
The Ravens are 1-4 in their last five. Their win came 30-23 at the Falcons on 12 October, and they have lost four in a row since, most recently at home to the Jaguars on 6 November. The run game is their strength on paper, 137.8 yards a game and 4th of 32, but the passing game sits 23rd at 204.7 yards a game. They score 21 points a game, 22nd of 32, convert 37.8% of third downs, 17th, and have a turnover margin of -2, 22nd. They allow 26.2 points a game, 25th of 32, and 341.8 yards a game, 14th.
Injuries and starters
The Ravens are without three quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson (thumb), Tyler Huntley (toe) and Skylar Thompson are all on injured reserve. Tackle Gerad Lichtenhan and defensive tackle John Jenkins are Out, and wide receiver Rashod Bateman is Questionable with a shoulder injury.
The Chargers have wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. Out and backup quarterback Trey Lance on injured reserve (groin). Four more are Questionable: wide receivers Ladd McConkey (concussion), Tre' Harris (hamstring) and Brenen Thompson (quadricep), and running back Keaton Mitchell (ankle).
Justin Herbert starts at quarterback for the Chargers, with Omarion Hampton at running back, Quentin Johnston at WR1, Charlie Kolar at tight end, Joe Alt at tackle and Garmon Randolph on the edge. The Ravens line up with Derrick Henry at running back, Zay Flowers at WR1, Mark Andrews at tight end, Roger Rosengarten at tackle and Calais Campbell on the edge.
Where the game is won
The Ravens' run game is the clearest edge on the field. The Ravens run for 137.8 yards a game, 4th of 32, and the Chargers allow 122 rushing yards a game, 21st of 32. Over their last 8 games the Chargers have faced the 4th most rush attempts by running backs, 25.1 a game, and are tied for the 4th most rushing touchdowns allowed to the position, 1 a game.
The Ravens also hold the edge when the Chargers have the ball. The Chargers' passing game, 201.9 yards a game and 24th of 32, meets a Ravens pass defence at 241.9 a game, 21st, and their run game, 114.5 yards a game and 16th, faces a Ravens run defence allowing 99.9 a game, 11th of 32. The Chargers' one edge is against the Ravens' passing game: 204.7 yards a game, 23rd of 32, into a Chargers pass defence allowing 230.6 a game, 12th.
Over their last 8 games the Ravens have allowed the 6th most receiving yards to wide receivers, 172.4 a game, and the Chargers are tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, 1.4 a game.
Players to watch
Derrick Henry has 689 rushing yards in 9 games, 76.6 a game, and his rushing line at bet365 is 75.5, at 1.86 either way. Justice Hill adds 26.7 rushing yards a game, with a line of 13.5 at 1.9 over and 1.83 under.
Zay Flowers has 614 receiving yards in 8 games, 76.8 a game. His receptions line is 5.5, 1.74 over and 2.05 under. Jacoby Brissett has a passing yards line of 211.5, at 1.86 on both sides.
Justin Herbert averages 198.9 passing yards a game and adds 23.8 rushing yards a game. His passing line is 191.5, at 1.86 either way.
Ladd McConkey, Questionable with a concussion, has 286 receiving yards in 6 games, 47.7 a game. Omarion Hampton has 369 rushing yards in 8 games, 46.1 a game.
Chargers vs Ravens odds
The prices for Chargers vs Ravens, in decimal odds:
- Moneyline: Chargers 2.99 (Polymarket), Ravens 1.5 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Chargers +4.5 at 1.88, Ravens -4.5 at 1.93 (bet365)
- Total: 38.5 points, over 1.9, under 1.91 (bet365)
Chargers vs Ravens prediction
Our model projects a 24-18 Ravens win and gives the Ravens a 69% chance, against 31% for the Chargers. Our line is Ravens -6.7 against the market's Ravens -4.5, and our total of 41.7 sits above the market's 38.5. The model has the Ravens covering -4.5 56% of the time and the game going over 38.5 60% of the time. Its lean on the spread is Ravens -4.0, and on the total Over 38.5. It puts a one-score game at 42% and a Ravens win by 14 or more at 31%.
The Ravens have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, most recently 30-23 on 26 November 2024, and those meetings have averaged 39 points.
Statz prediction: Ravens 24-18
Lines move before kickoff, and these prices can change by Monday night.