Our model makes the Bills 74% favourites to beat the Jets, with a projected score of 26-18. The market has Bills -7.5 and a total of 51.
The Buffalo Bills (7-1, 1st in the AFC East) visit the New York Jets (2-7, 3rd in the AFC East) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday 15 November, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. Our model makes the Bills the favourite, 74% to win, with a projected score of 26-18. The market has the Bills -7.5.
How the teams arrive
The Bills are 4-1 in their last five. They beat the Vikings 23-6 on 10 November and the Ravens 36-10 before that, and their one defeat in the run came at home to the Patriots on 4 October. The Bills lead the league in scoring at 32 points a game and in offence at 400 yards a game. The ground game is 2nd of 32 at 146.6 rushing yards a game, and they convert 43.2% of third downs, 8th of 32. The defence sits in the middle of the league: 23.4 points allowed a game ranks 16th of 32, and 344.4 yards allowed ranks 15th.
The Jets are 1-4 in their last five. Their win was 17-12 over the Browns on 11 October, and they have lost four in a row since, most recently at the Chiefs on 8 November. The Jets score 20.2 points a game, 25th of 32, and gain 336.1 yards a game, 21st. They convert 35.4% of third downs, 26th of 32. They have the better turnover margin, +3 and 11th of 32 against the Bills at 0 and 16th. They allow 24.8 points a game, 22nd of 32, and 340.1 yards a game, 12th.
Injuries and starters
The Jets have Irv Charles Out at wide receiver and a long list of questionable players: Garrett Wilson (concussion), Omar Cooper Jr. (ankle), defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (ankle), cornerback Nahshon Wright (back) and defensive end Joseph Ossai (ankle). The Bills list six players as Questionable: tight end Dalton Kincaid (ankle), tackle Alec Anderson (ankle), wide receiver Keon Coleman, safety Sam Franklin Jr. (shoulder), tackle Dion Dawkins (rib) and cornerback Christian Benford (wrist).
Josh Allen starts at quarterback for the Bills, with James Cook III at running back, Keon Coleman at WR1, Dalton Kincaid at tight end, Alec Anderson at tackle and Joey Bosa on the edge. Geno Smith starts at quarterback for the Jets, with Kene Nwangwu at running back, Garrett Wilson at WR1, Mason Taylor at tight end, Armand Membou at tackle and Quinton Bell on the edge.
Where the game is won
The Bills' run game meets the weakest part of the Jets' defence. The Bills run for 146.6 yards a game, 2nd of 32, and the Jets give up 128 rushing yards a game, 26th of 32. Over their last 8 games the Jets have allowed the 2nd most rush attempts to running backs, 26.4 a game, and the 7th most rushing yards to the position, 110.3 a game.
Through the air the edge goes the other way. The Jets' pass defence allows 212.1 yards a game, 5th of 32, against a Bills passing game at 253.4 yards a game, 12th of 32. The Jets' own passing game, 230.9 yards a game and 21st of 32, meets a Bills pass defence that gives up 252.8 a game, 27th of 32. On the ground the Bills hold the edge again: the Jets run for 105.2 yards a game, 20th of 32, into a Bills run defence that allows 91.6 a game, 7th of 32.
Over their last 8 games the Bills have given up the most targets to running backs, 8.3 a game, and are tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, 1.4 a game.
Players to watch
James Cook III has 814 rushing yards in 8 games, 101.8 a game, and has run for 60 or more yards in seven games in a row. His rushing line at bet365 is 91.5, at 1.86 either way.
Josh Allen averages 253.4 passing yards a game and adds 35.6 rushing yards a game. His passing line is 238.5, at 1.86 on both sides.
Dalton Kincaid, Questionable with an ankle injury, has 429 receiving yards, 53.6 a game, with Khalil Shakir close behind at 412, 51.5 a game.
Garrett Wilson, Questionable with a concussion, has 527 receiving yards in 8 games, 65.9 a game. Omar Cooper Jr., Questionable with an ankle injury, has 76.5 a game across 4 games, and his receiving line is 37.5 at 1.86.
Geno Smith averages 230.9 passing yards a game, with his line at 222.5 and 1.86 both ways. Breece Hall has 56 rushing yards a game in 4 games, and his rushing line is 54.5, 1.83 over and 1.9 under.
Bills vs Jets odds
The prices for Bills vs Jets, in decimal odds:
- Moneyline: Bills 1.26, Jets 4.88 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Bills -7.5 at 1.9, Jets +7.5 at 1.9 (bet365)
- Total: 51 points, over 1.86, under 1.8 (bet365)
Bills vs Jets prediction
Our model projects a 26-18 Bills win and gives the Bills a 74% chance, against 26% for the Jets. Our line is Bills -8.5 against the market's Bills -7.5, and our total of 43.8 sits well under the market's 51. The model has the Bills covering -7.5 53% of the time and the game going over 51 29% of the time, so its lean on the total is Under 51.0. It puts a one-score game at 40% and a Bills win by 14 or more at 36%.
The Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, including a 35-8 win on 4 January 2026, and those meetings have averaged 42.7 points.
Statz prediction: Bills 26-18
Lines move before kickoff, and these prices can change by Sunday.