How much xG Real Madrid create and concede, and who gets the best chances.
Updated 7 November 2026, after the last game
Real Madrid create 2.18 expected goals per game in La Liga in 2026/2027, the 2nd most of the 20 clubs and above the league average of 1.46, across 12 league games, while FC Barcelona create the most with 3.10.
Kylian Mbappé has created the most expected goals for Real Madrid in 2026/2027, 13.00 in 16 appearances, 0.81 a game, ahead of Arda Güler with 5.00 and Vinicius Junior with 3.00, across all competitions.
Real Madrid create more expected goals at home, 2.33 a game in their last 10 home games against 2.19 in their last 10 away.
Real Madrid created 3.62 expected goals at home to Inter on 8 September, their most in a game in 2026/2027, against an average of 2.41 across their 16 games, and their fewest was 0.33 away at Atlético on 20 September.
| Player | Apps | Expected Goals | Per game | Games with 0+ | Games with 0+ | Games with 1+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 16 | 13 | 0.81 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Arda Güler | 14 | 5 | 0.36 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Vinicius Junior | 12 | 3 | 0.25 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Carlos Espí | 11 | 2 | 0.18 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Endrick | 7 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brahim Díaz | 9 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bernardo Silva | 13 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ibrahima Konaté | 13 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jude Bellingham | 16 | 1 | 0.06 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Thiago Pitarch | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andriy Lunin | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Éder Militão | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 8 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Álvaro Carreras | 9 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 10 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Dumfries | 11 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Huijsen | 12 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eduardo Camavinga | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Federico Valverde | 15 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thibaut Courtois | 15 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yan Diomande | 16 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Cucurella | 16 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Date | Opponent | Competition | Score | Real Madrid | Opponent | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Valencia (A) | La Liga | 0-3 | 2.32 | 0.30 | 2.62 |
| 4 Nov 2026 | AEK Athens (A) | Champions League | 2-3 | 3.59 | 1.16 | 4.75 |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Racing (A) | La Liga | 0-3 | 2.61 | 1.43 | 4.04 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Barcelona (A) | La Liga | 1-2 | 1.55 | 1.47 | 3.02 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | RB Leipzig (H) | Champions League | 4-1 | 3.26 | 1.16 | 4.42 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Sevilla (H) | La Liga | 4-1 | 1.73 | 1.39 | 3.12 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Roma (A) | Champions League | 3-4 | 1.97 | 1.35 | 3.32 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Villarreal (H) | La Liga | 1-0 | 1.09 | 0.79 | 1.88 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Atlético (A) | La Liga | 2-1 | 0.33 | 2.41 | 2.74 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Elche (A) | La Liga | 2-3 | 2.90 | 1.49 | 4.39 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Rayo (H) | La Liga | 4-1 | 2.96 | 1.35 | 4.31 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Inter (H) | Champions League | 2-1 | 3.62 | 2.03 | 5.65 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Betis (A) | La Liga | 1-0 | 2.91 | 0.77 | 3.68 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Málaga (H) | La Liga | 4-0 | 2.86 | 0.83 | 3.69 |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Sociedad (H) | La Liga | 4-1 | 2.55 | 0.63 | 3.18 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Espanyol (A) | La Liga | 1-2 | 2.36 | 0.93 | 3.29 |
| Line | Games over | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid expected goals | Over 1.50 | 8 of 10 | 80% |
| Real Madrid expected goals | Over 2.00 | 5 of 10 | 50% |
| Real Madrid expected goals | Over 2.50 | 4 of 10 | 40% |
| Real Madrid expected goals | Over 3.00 | 2 of 10 | 20% |
| Real Madrid expected goals | Over 3.50 | 1 of 10 | 10% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 1.50 | 1 of 10 | 10% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 2.00 | 1 of 10 | 10% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 2.50 | 0 of 10 | 0% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 3.00 | 0 of 10 | 0% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 3.50 | 0 of 10 | 0% |
| Total expected goals | Over 3.00 | 7 of 10 | 70% |
| Total expected goals | Over 3.50 | 4 of 10 | 40% |
| Total expected goals | Over 4.00 | 4 of 10 | 40% |
| Total expected goals | Over 4.50 | 1 of 10 | 10% |
| Total expected goals | Over 5.00 | 0 of 10 | 0% |