Yes, Hamburg have taken 25 points over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 6.27 more than the 18.73 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Hamburg create 1.24 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 24.81 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 1.19 more than that xG would expect.
Hamburg allow 2.17 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 43.39 in all, and have conceded 40 goals from those chances, 3.39 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Ransford Königsdörffer has the most expected goals (xG) for Hamburg over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 3.19 xG in 14 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Fábio Vieira is next with 2.77 xG.
Hamburg have taken 6.3 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +1.2 goals against their xG, and +3.4 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 24.81 | 26 | +1.19 | 43.39 | 40 | +3.39 | 18.73 | 25 | +6.27 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.99 | 13 | +1.01 | 17.58 | 24 | -6.42 | 10.54 | 13 | +2.46 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.78 | 5 | +0.22 | 9.69 | 15 | -5.31 | 3.99 | 6 | +2.01 |
| Home | 9 | 11.50 | 12 | +0.50 | 17.60 | 17 | +0.60 | 9.37 | 11 | +1.63 |
| Away | 11 | 13.31 | 14 | +0.69 | 25.79 | 23 | +2.79 | 9.36 | 14 | +4.64 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (A) | 2-3 | 1.41 | 1.77 | 1.15 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | Bundesliga | Koln (H) | 2-1 | 1.44 | 1.66 | 1.24 | 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig (A) | 5-0 | 0.82 | 2.09 | 0.60 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Bundesliga | Mainz (H) | 0-5 | 0.27 | 2.52 | 0.19 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Bundesliga | Dortmund (A) | 2-0 | 0.84 | 1.65 | 0.81 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Leverkusen (A) | 1-1 | 2.63 | 3.14 | 1.17 | 1 | L |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | Freiburg (H) | 3-2 | 1.61 | 0.46 | 2.21 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Bundesliga | Frankfurt (A) | 1-2 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 3 | D |
| 25 Apr | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (H) | 1-2 | 1.64 | 1.90 | 1.23 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | Bundesliga | Bremen (A) | 3-1 | 0.64 | 1.68 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Bundesliga | Stuttgart (A) | 4-0 | 0.64 | 3.36 | 0.20 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | Bundesliga | Augsburg (H) | 1-1 | 2.54 | 2.83 | 1.26 | 1 | L |
| 21 Mar | Bundesliga | Dortmund (A) | 3-2 | 1.15 | 5.70 | 0.09 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Bundesliga | Koln (H) | 1-1 | 0.33 | 1.13 | 0.65 | 1 | L |
| 7 Mar | Bundesliga | Wolfsburg (A) | 1-2 | 1.92 | 2.18 | 1.25 | 3 | L |
| 4 Mar | Bundesliga | Leverkusen (H) | 0-1 | 1.41 | 1.87 | 1.10 | 0 | L |
| 1 Mar | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig (H) | 1-2 | 0.54 | 3.39 | 0.17 | 0 | L |
| 20 Feb | Bundesliga | Mainz (A) | 1-1 | 0.73 | 1.88 | 0.63 | 1 | L |
| 14 Feb | Bundesliga | U Berlin (H) | 3-2 | 1.72 | 1.84 | 1.32 | 3 | L |
| 7 Feb | Bundesliga | Heidenheim (A) | 0-2 | 1.84 | 1.63 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Vieira | midfielder | 19 | 1476 | 2.77 | 5 | +2.23 | 0.17 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw | defender | 3 | 270 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Yussuf Poulsen | attacker | 11 | 276 | 1.09 | 2 | +0.91 | 0.36 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer | attacker | 14 | 1115 | 3.19 | 4 | +0.81 | 0.26 |
| Miro Muheim | defender | 11 | 843 | 0.20 | 1 | +0.80 | 0.02 |
| Bakery Jatta | attacker | 11 | 577 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 0.06 |
| Fabio Baldé | attacker | 5 | 144 | 0.54 | 1 | +0.46 | 0.34 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga | midfielder | 15 | 1036 | 0.67 | 1 | +0.33 | 0.06 |
| Albert Grønbæk | midfielder | 11 | 832 | 0.73 | 1 | +0.27 | 0.08 |
| Terem Moffi | attacker | 5 | 191 | 0.77 | 1 | +0.23 | 0.36 |
| Robert Glatzel | attacker | 7 | 456 | 1.84 | 2 | +0.16 | 0.36 |
| Nicolás Capaldo | midfielder | 14 | 1108 | 1.85 | 2 | +0.15 | 0.15 |
| Jean-Luc Dompé | attacker | 6 | 157 | 0.99 | 1 | +0.01 | 0.56 |
| Rayan Philippe | attacker | 11 | 300 | 1.32 | 1 | -0.32 | 0.40 |
| Luka Vuskovic | defender | 11 | 912 | 2.34 | 2 | -0.34 | 0.23 |
| Philip Otele | attacker | 9 | 477 | 1.63 | 1 | -0.63 | 0.31 |
| Patson Daka | attacker | 4 | 207 | 0.94 | 0 | -0.94 | 0.41 |
| Otto Stange | attacker | 13 | 365 | 1.15 | 0 | -1.15 | 0.28 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | 14.3 | 8 | 4.5 | 8 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 8.9 | 11 | 4.6 | 4 | 9.8 | 13 | +3.2 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 5.9 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 10.4 | 14 | 4.4 | 4 | 10.4 | 13 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Elversberg | 5 | 6.5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | 9.7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | +2 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 6.1 | 4 | 10.4 | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 12 | 14 | 6.3 | 8 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | 9.7 | 10 | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 9.7 | 8 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 5 | 5.1 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 13 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 14 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 15.1 | 16 | 4.2 | 4 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin | 5 | 6.6 | 5 | 10.2 | 17 | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 11.9 | 13 | 8.3 | 10 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 8.6 | 7 | 14.2 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 18 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 9.2 | 9 | 8.1 | 13 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |