No, Fleetwood have taken 11 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, within 0.13 of the 11.13 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Fleetwood create 1.20 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 11.99 in all, and have scored 10 goals from those chances, 1.99 fewer than that xG would expect.
Fleetwood allow 1.68 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 16.83 in all, and have conceded 11 goals from those chances, 5.83 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Ronan Coughlan has the most expected goals (xG) for Fleetwood over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 2.46 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Ched Evans is next with 1.70 xG.
Fleetwood's results and their chances agree, within 0.1 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 11.99 | 10 | -1.99 | 16.83 | 11 | +5.83 | 11.13 | 11 | -0.13 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.16 | 4 | -2.16 | 9.42 | 8 | +1.42 | 5.06 | 2 | -3.06 |
| Home | 5 | 5.89 | 5 | -0.89 | 5.00 | 4 | +1.00 | 7.46 | 6 | -1.46 |
| Away | 5 | 6.10 | 5 | -1.10 | 11.83 | 7 | +4.83 | 3.67 | 5 | +1.33 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Walsall (H) | 1-1 | 1.44 | 0.92 | 1.74 | 1 | W |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Salford (A) | 1-0 | 0.63 | 1.55 | 0.70 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Rochdale (H) | 1-2 | 1.32 | 1.55 | 1.22 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Barnet (A) | 3-1 | 1.55 | 2.79 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Newport (A) | 1-1 | 1.22 | 2.61 | 0.64 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Shrewsbury (H) | 2-0 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 1.42 | 3 | D |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Oldham (H) | 1-1 | 1.04 | 0.72 | 1.60 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Grimsby (A) | 2-2 | 1.18 | 2.40 | 0.70 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Gillingham (H) | 0-0 | 1.26 | 1.10 | 1.48 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Chesterfield (A) | 0-1 | 1.52 | 2.48 | 0.87 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Loupalo-Bi | attacker | 9 | 283 | 0.80 | 2 | +1.20 | 0.25 |
| Finley Potter | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.22 | 1 | +0.78 | 0.02 |
| Ronan Coughlan | attacker | 8 | 369 | 2.46 | 3 | +0.54 | 0.60 |
| Will Davies | attacker | 9 | 458 | 1.55 | 2 | +0.45 | 0.30 |
| Mark Helm | midfielder | 10 | 858 | 1.04 | 1 | -0.04 | 0.11 |
| Ched Evans | attacker | 10 | 710 | 1.70 | 1 | -0.70 | 0.22 |
| Shaun Rooney | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.80 | 0 | -0.80 | 0.08 |
| Lewis McCann | attacker | 10 | 900 | 1.05 | 0 | -1.05 | 0.10 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |