A player who has cleared a prop in every game sounds like a free win. Why line size and price matter more, using the Week 9 NFL prop board as the example.
What a hit rate does and does not tell you
A hit rate is how often a bet would have won in the past: a player who cleared 60.5 rushing yards in eight of his last ten games has an 80% hit rate at that line. It is measured against this week's line, and it describes history, not a forecast. The NFL prop hit rates for Week 9 rank every priced player prop that way, and a big number on that board is only as useful as the line behind it.
A hit is measured against this week's line
A hit is a game in which the player finished on the side shown: over the line for an over, under it for an under. That is why the same player has a different hit rate at every line the book posts. A running back who clears 9.5 receiving yards in every game of a run has told you very little, because 9.5 yards is a handful of snaps; the same run at 60.5 would tell you a lot.
History, not a forecast
A high hit rate shows how often a player has cleared the line lately. It does not say what he will do on Sunday. The price, the matchup and the player's role this week all sit outside it, which is why the checklist at the end of this article starts with the size of the line.
The Week 9 board: where the lines are smallest
| Player | Matchup | Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II | DET @ MIA | Receiving yards | 9.5 | -116 | -116 |
| Tank Dell | HOU @ LAC | Receiving yards | 13.5 | -116 | -116 |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU @ LAC | Receiving yards | 14.5 | -116 | -116 |
| Bucky Irving | TB @ CHI | Receiving yards | 16.5 | -116 | -116 |
| Drew Lock | ARI @ SEA | Rushing yards | 5.5 | -111 | -120 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN @ CAR | Receptions | 1.5 | 145 | -185 |
| Gardner Minshew II | ARI @ SEA | Rush attempts | 2.5 | 120 | -152 |
| Daniel Jones | DAL @ IND | Passing touchdowns | 1.5 | 135 | -172 |
Every one of these is a small line, and the ranked by last ten and last five games board is full of them. A run of clears at 9.5 receiving yards is easy to produce and easy to misread. Note also that our injury table lists Tank Dell on injured reserve, so a line on the board is not a promise that a player is available.
Five lines at 16.5 or lower
Five of the lines above are yardage lines of 16.5 or lower: Gordon II at 9.5, Dell at 13.5, Boutte at 14.5, Irving at 16.5 and Drew Lock's rushing at 5.5. See Bucky Irving's receiving yards for what a 16.5 line looks like game by game.
Lines at 1.5 and 2.5 are a different kind of bet
A line of 1.5 receptions or 2.5 rush attempts is not really a yardage question at all: it asks whether a player gets the ball once or twice more than a handful of times. The outcomes are a few whole numbers, so a hit rate on them moves in big steps and rounds toward 100% or 0% very quickly.
Reading the price: when the odds say the line is soft
Symmetric -116/-116 versus lopsided prices
Most of the lines above are priced -116 on both sides: Gordon II, Dell, Boutte and Irving, and Trey McBride's 6.5 receptions as well. A symmetric price means the book sees the line as a coin flip. The lopsided ones are different. Aaron Jones Sr.'s 7.5 rush attempts are -141 on the over and +110 on the under, and Rachaad White's 11.5 rush attempts are +105 over and -135 under. Daniel Jones's 1.5 passing touchdowns are +135 over and -172 under, and Troy Franklin's receptions line of 1.5 is +145 over and -185 under.
What a -185 under is telling you
When the book charges -185 for the under on Franklin's 1.5 receptions and pays +145 for the over, it has already leaned one way. Whatever the hit rate says, you are being asked to pay more for the side the book also likes. The same goes for Daniel Jones's passing touchdowns at -172 under. A hit rate and a price are two separate pieces of evidence, and the best spots are where they disagree.
Last five versus last ten: which window to trust
L5 and L10 explained
L5 and L10 are a player's last five and last ten games. The five-game window is the one closest to how he is playing now, which makes it more responsive and more fragile, while the ten-game window smooths out one big or small game. When the two disagree, that gap is the interesting part. It means something has changed recently.
Why unders belong on the same board
The board shows unders as well as overs, because a line a player keeps falling short of is as useful as one he keeps clearing. A player with a 20% hit rate on the over has an 80% hit rate on the under, and the every over and under on the board view ranks both. A player needs at least five games to be ranked at all: fewer than five is too small a sample. Trey McBride's reception line of 6.5 is an example of a line that is posted at an even price, so his hit rate is the main thing to look at.
A checklist before you lean on any hit rate
- The size of the line. A clear at 9.5 yards is not the same as a clear at 60.5.
- The price on both sides. A symmetric -116/-116 and a +145/-185 are different statements from the book.
- The L5 and L10 gap. If the recent window is far from the longer one, find out why.
- The sample. At least five games, and more is better.
- The matchup on the card. Every line shows the game, such as ARI @ SEA or HOU @ LAC.
The lines are from Bet365 and refreshed through the week as lines and prices move. Every line's hit rates, over the last ten and the last five, and its game-by-game run are free; Pro adds our chance and our projection on every line.
Frequently asked questions
Is a 100% prop hit rate worth betting?
A 100% prop hit rate is worth checking, not worth betting on its own: it means a player cleared the line in every game measured, but on a small line such as Ollie Gordon II's 9.5 receiving yards that tells you little about this week.
What is a good hit rate for NFL player props?
A good hit rate for NFL player props is one measured against a meaningful line over at least five games, such as 8 of 10 games over 60.5 rushing yards, which is an 80% hit rate, and still checked against the price.
Should I use last 5 or last 10 for prop hit rates?
Use both: last 5 games shows how a player is playing now and last 10 smooths out one big game, so when the two disagree, as they can on any Week 9 line, the gap between them is the signal.
Why do some NFL props have lopsided odds?
Some NFL props have lopsided odds because the book has already leaned one way: Troy Franklin's 1.5 receptions are +145 over and -185 under in Week 9, while most yardage lines sit at an even -116 on both sides.
Ready to look at the board? See who is beating their line this week on the NFL hit rates page.