The league's best rushing offence against a Bears side the market makes six-point favourites, with the model at three and the total at 43.5 against 47.5. The numbers, props and scorers for Buccaneers at Bears on Sunday night.
A six-point line and a run-first underdog
Sunday Night Football at Soldier Field kicks off at 1:20am UK time on Monday morning, 8:20pm Eastern on Sunday, open air, on grass. Chicago are 6-2, second in the NFC North and 5-1 over their last six. They have won three in a row, the latest 34-17 over Seattle, and the one defeat in that stretch was 31-7 to Green Bay. Tampa Bay are 3-5, third in the NFC South and 3-3 over their last six, with back-to-back wins of 43-13 over Carolina and 16-0 over Atlanta behind them. The market has the Bears by six at a total of 47.5. The full picture is on the game page.
The series is level at 2-2, with an average total of 45.5 and the over 2-2. The last meeting, in Week 2 of 2023, was a 27-17 Tampa Bay win as 2.5-point favourites, and the Bucs won 38-3 in 2021 as 12.5-point favourites. The most recent Chicago win, in Week 5 of 2020, was 20-19 as 3.5-point underdogs. This season the Bears score 26.8 points a game, eighth, and gain 404.6 yards, third. The Bucs score 22.3, 20th, but allow 18.9, fifth, and 300.1 yards, third. The Buccaneers stats and Bears stats pages carry the rest.
Where the game is won
The matchup grid has one big number and three coin flips. Tampa Bay passing against the Bears' pass defence is a 95% Chicago edge, and the Bucs average 147.5 passing yards a game, 32nd. The other three are close: Tampa Bay running against Chicago is a 52% Bucs edge, Chicago passing against Tampa Bay a 52% Bucs edge, and Chicago running against the Tampa Bay defence a 50% Chicago edge. The Bucs lead the league on the ground at 168.6 yards a game, the Bears are second at 150.8, and each run defence is in the top four, Tampa Bay at 80.0 allowed, second, Chicago at 86.8, fourth. The model's total sits four points under the market. The Buccaneers rushing page shows who carries the load.
The model has Baker Mayfield at 197.4 passing yards and 1.3 touchdowns, Bucky Irving at 16.9 carries for 80.1 yards, Caleb Williams at 227.2 yards and 1.4 touchdowns, and D'Andre Swift at 13 carries for 52.1. The injury list matters for who gets those touches. Tampa Bay have Emeka Egbuka questionable with a foot, Kenny Gainwell questionable with a hip, Sean Tucker questionable, and Tykee Smith questionable with an ankle; Yaya Diaby (knee), Chase Lucas and Haggai Ndubuisi are out. Chicago have Kyle Monangai questionable with a thumb, Luther Burden III and Malik Muhammad II (toe) questionable, Zah Frazier out, and Cole Kmet on injured reserve with a knee. Burden has the biggest target number in this game's projections, 7.3, so his status matters for the Bears passing game. The injury table updates until kick-off.
The model's number
The model has Chicago 23.3, Tampa Bay 20.2, a 43.5 total, and the Bears winning 58.8 times in 100 (the game model's headline win rate; the moneyline card below uses the edge table's own read, 34.6% for the Bucs and 65.2% for the Bears, so the two do not match). The market has them by six at 47.5, so the model is three points tighter on the side and four points lower on the total. Buccaneers plus 6.5 at 2.00 on Polymarket is a 55.1% model call against 50.0%, five stars, a half-point bet, and a five-point edge, short of the eight where we would suspect missing news. The Bears at minus six is the other side of it: 47.0% against 50.3%, no stars, not a bet. Under 48.5 at 1.93 on Polymarket is 55.4% against 51.9%, four stars, a half-point bet; the over at 47.5 is a no-star. Tampa Bay on the moneyline at 3.57 on Kalshi is 34.6% against 28.1%, three stars, a quarter of a point.
The three bets are one view: a closer, lower-scoring game than the market expects. The risk is the 95% Chicago edge against the Bucs' passing game, which hurts the points and the moneyline but would not hurt the under. Both teams' records against the line are on the Bucs ATS and Bears ATS pages.
- Buccaneers +6.5 v the Bears — Spread, TB @ CHI, Mon 1:20am UK / Sun 8:20pm ET — at 2.00 — The model has Chicago by three. A five-point edge, short of the eight-point flag. Game preview
- Under 48.5 points — Total, TB @ CHI, Mon 1:20am UK / Sun 8:20pm ET — at 1.93 — Model total 43.5 against a close of 47.5. Game preview
- Buccaneers to win — Moneyline, TB @ CHI, Mon 1:20am UK / Sun 8:20pm ET — at 3.57 — A one-in-three shot at better than 5/2. Game preview
Scorers, props and the slips
The scorers are a pass. D'Andre Swift at 1.54 is a 48.2% model call, 16.7 points short of the price, even though he has scored in four of his last five. Bucky Irving at 2.05 is a 45.0% call, 3.8 short, and Colston Loveland at 2.40 is 29.5%, 12.2 short. None of the three is a bet at these prices.
The props lean under on both offences. Every prop edge here is above eight points, the size where missing news is the first suspect, so check the team news before kick-off. Swift is projected at 13 carries and 52.1 yards, and under 66.5 rushing yards at 1.86 on bet365 is a 63.1% call, five stars; his under 17.5 carries is 64.4% and is the same bet, so one stake covers both. On the Tampa Bay side the model sits under the pass-catcher lines: Cade Otton is projected at 2.0 catches and 20.7 yards against a line of 26.5, and under 26.5 receiving yards is a 62.0% call at 1.86. Irving's under 2.5 receptions (projected 1.9) and under 16.5 receiving yards (13.4) are both five stars at 1.86, and Egbuka's under 52.5 yards (projected 42.3) is the same story with the foot to check. The one over is Kalif Raymond at 16.5 receiving yards, projected at 36.7 for a 63.7% call at 1.86. A twenty-yard gap to the line is a flag for missing news, so the stake stays at a quarter.
- D'Andre Swift under 66.5 rushing yards — RB, CHI — at 1.86 — Projected 52.1 yards. The same bet as his under 17.5 carries. Game preview
- Cade Otton under 26.5 receiving yards — TE, TB — at 1.86 — Projected 20.7 yards on 2.0 catches. Game preview
- Kalif Raymond over 16.5 receiving yards — WR, CHI — at 1.86 — Projected 36.7 yards. A gap this big is a flag; check the team news. Game preview
The verdict
The model has Chicago by three and the market by six, and the question is whether the Bears can pass on a Tampa Bay defence that is fifth in points allowed. The case for the Bucs is the league's top rushing attack and a number that gives them 6.5; the case against is a 95% Chicago edge on the one side of the ball where Tampa Bay are last in the league in passing yards a game. Half a point on the Bucs and half on the under, a quarter on the moneyline. The news to watch is Egbuka's foot, Gainwell's hip, and whether Burden and Monangai play for the Bears.
Our Best Bets: the Pro page
Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return.
Put it to work
- Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
- Buccaneers at Bears The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
- Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Sunday night.
- Injuries Egbuka, Burden and Monangai are the names to check before kick-off.