The model has Seattle by 4.9 against a market of 8.5, with Sam Darnold out and Drew Lock questionable. The Cardinals' number, the receiving props and the scorers for Cardinals at Seahawks on Sunday afternoon.
Seattle without Sam Darnold
Seattle host Arizona on Sunday at 9:25pm UK time, 4:25pm Eastern, at Lumen Field, open air, on Fieldturf. The Seahawks are 4-4, third in the NFC West and 2-4 over their last six, and they lost 34-17 to Chicago last week. Three of their last six were lost by two or three points: 33-31 to Washington, 32-29 to San Francisco and 17-14 to Denver. The Cardinals are 3-5, fourth in the division and also 2-4 over their last six, after a 33-30 win over Dallas. Sam Darnold is out with a glute injury and Drew Lock is questionable with an elbow. The market has Seattle by 8.5 at a total of 39.5. The full picture is on the game page.
Seattle are 6-0 in the series and 5-1 against the spread, with four of the six under and an average total of 43. They won 31-7 in Arizona in Week 2 this season, 44-22 at home in Week 10 of 2025, a 66-point game on a line of 44.5, and 23-20 in Arizona in Week 4 of 2025. The Seahawks score 23.1 points a game, 14th, and allow 19.9, sixth, with 263.1 yards allowed a game, the fewest in the league. The Cardinals score 21.9, 21st, and allow 29.8, the most in the league. The Seahawks stats and Cardinals stats pages have the rest.
Where the game is won
The grid is a Seattle one. Arizona's passing offence against the Seahawks' pass defence is a 68% Seattle edge, because Seattle allow 169.1 passing yards a game, the fewest in the league. Arizona's rushing against Seattle is a 67% Seattle edge, with Seattle allowing 94.0, seventh. Seattle's own passing against Arizona is a 52% edge and its rushing an even 50%. Arizona average 5.0 yards a play, 29th. That is the case for the market's 8.5; the model takes a different view of the margin. The Seahawks passing and Cardinals receiving pages show the tension.
Where the model parts from the grid is Arizona's target tree. It has Gardner Minshew II at 224.3 passing yards on 37.9 attempts, Trey McBride at 14.6 targets for 11.1 catches and 99.4 yards, and Michael Wilson at 13.7 targets for 8.2 catches and 89.4 yards, so two players take 28.3 of the 37.9. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, as are tight end Kenny Yeboah, linebacker Cameron Robertson and cornerback Garrett Williams, and Wilson is listed questionable for a rest day rather than an injury. For Seattle, Darnold is out and Lock is questionable, and the model's 210.9 passing yards and 1.1 touchdowns for Lock assume he plays. Rashid Shaheed (knee), tackle Charles Cross (ankle), guards Quenton Nelson and Anthony Bradford (both knee) and defensive tackle Leonard Williams (Achilles) are also questionable; the injury table and the Seahawks depth chart update until kick-off. If Lock cannot go, the Seattle numbers here need replacing.
The model's number
The model has Seattle 22.8, Arizona 17.9, a 40.8 total and the Seahawks winning 64.1 times in 100. That is a margin of 4.9 against a market of 8.5, and it makes Arizona the side: the Cardinals at +9.5 for 1.93 on Kalshi, a point longer than the market line, is a 57.6% call against 51.9%, five stars, a half-point bet. The Seahawks at -8.5 for 2.00 on Polymarket is a 44.7% call against 50.0%, and no bet. The Cardinals on the moneyline at 4.65 on Kalshi is a 28.7% call against 21.5%, three stars, a quarter of a point.
The caveat is the quarterback. The model's Seattle score is built around Lock, so the Arizona side is the pick most exposed to news. A 5.7-point edge is not large enough to be a flag by itself; the missing news here is already on the sheet. The total is close: the model is 1.3 above the 39.5 line, and the over at 38.5 for 1.87 on Kalshi is a 54.4% call against 53.5%, one star, not a bet. Against the number, the Seahawks ATS and Cardinals ATS pages carry the season record.
- Cardinals +9.5 v the Seahawks — Spread, ARI @ SEA, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 1.93 — The model has Seattle by 4.9. Lock's elbow is the news to watch. Game preview
- Cardinals to win — Moneyline, ARI @ SEA, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 4.65 — A 29% shot at better than 7/2. Game preview
Scorers and props
The scorer board leans to Arizona. Trey McBride at 2.90 is a 53.0% call against 34.5% implied and Michael Wilson at 3.45 a 48.4% call against 29.0%, gaps of 18.5 and 19.4 points, and Tyler Allgeier at 2.50 is 46.5% against 40.0%. Gaps that wide mean the model is leaning on a heavy target load, with Wilson's rest-day tag behind it, so none of them is more than a quarter of a point. On Seattle's side Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 1.74 is 47.4% against 57.5%, a price too short. Emanuel Wilson at 12.00 is a 28.2% call against 8.3%, the widest gap on the board at 19.9 points and a long shot, so a quarter of a point at the most.
The receiving overs are the headline. Trey McBride over 6.5 receptions at 1.86 on bet365 is projected at 11.1, a 64.4% call against 50.0%, five stars, and he has hit it in 100% of his last ten. His over 58.5 receiving yards, projected at 99.4, is the same read. Michael Wilson over 50.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 89.4, 64.4%, and his over 4.5 receptions at 1.95 is projected at 8.2. Both edges are wider than eight points, which can mean the line knows something the model does not, so check the team news before kick-off. Tyler Allgeier over 12.5 receiving yards is projected at 26.0, a lean the model does not rate as a prop. The tension is the Seahawks' pass defence at 169.1 yards a game: the volume has to come from Arizona trailing and throwing, which fits Cardinals plus the points but not a team being shut down. Wilson's card is the smaller because of the rest-day tag.
- Trey McBride over 6.5 receptions — TE, ARI — at 1.86 — Projected 11.1 catches on 14.6 targets. Game preview
- Michael Wilson over 50.5 receiving yards — WR, ARI — at 1.86 — Projected 89.4 yards. He is listed questionable as a rest day. Game preview
The verdict
Arizona allow the most points in the league, 29.8 a game, and lost 31-7 to these Seahawks in Week 2, which is what the market is pricing; the model sees a low-scoring game where 8.5 is too many. The case against Arizona is real: they have allowed 30 or more in five of their last six. Half a point on the Cardinals at +9.5, a quarter on the moneyline at 4.65, half a point on McBride's catches and a quarter on Wilson's yards. The news to watch is Lock's elbow, because the model's whole Seattle side is built around it, and then Wilson's rest-day tag.
Our Best Bets: the Pro page
Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.
Put it to work
- Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
- Cardinals at Seahawks The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
- Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Sunday afternoon.
- Injuries Drew Lock and Michael Wilson are the names to check before kick-off.