Two 5-3 teams, a market at New England by 3.5 and a model at just over two. The Packers' price, the 48.3 total and the props for Packers at Patriots on Sunday afternoon.
Two 5-3 teams and a 3.5-point line
New England host Green Bay on Sunday at 9:25pm UK time, 4:25pm Eastern, at Gillette Stadium, open air, on Fieldturf. Both sides are 5-3 and 4-2 over their last six. The Patriots are second in the AFC East and beat Miami 24-19 last week, after a 30-24 loss to Chicago. The Packers are fourth in the NFC North and beat Carolina 27-19 last week, after a 20-17 loss to Detroit. The market has New England by 3.5 at a total of 45.5. The full picture is on the game page.
The series is 1-1 in the two meetings on the sheet. The Patriots won 31-17 at home in 2018 and the Packers won 27-24 in Week 4 of 2022 as ten-point home favourites, which left New England 2-0 against the spread. One went over and one under, with an average total of 49.5. This season Green Bay score 21.4 points a game, 24th, and allow 20.5, tenth; New England score 23.0, 16th, and allow 20.3, ninth. The turnover margins split them: the Packers are plus four, seventh, and the Patriots minus seven, 30th. The numbers are on the Packers stats and Patriots stats pages.
A passing offence with no running game
The grid's headline is a split inside the Packers. Their passing offence against New England's pass defence is a 64% Packers edge, and they throw for 280.8 yards a game, third. On the ground it flips: Green Bay gain 60.6 rushing yards a game, the fewest in the league, and their rushing offence against the Patriots' run defence is a 96% Patriots edge, with New England allowing 92.6, sixth. New England's passing against Green Bay is a 52% Packers edge, and New England's rushing against Green Bay a 54% Patriots edge. See the Packers passing and Patriots rushing pages.
The model has Jordan Love at 238.5 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions, Drake Maye at 224.4 and 1.7 with 27.9 rushing yards, Josh Jacobs at 9.5 carries for 37.3 yards and Matthew Golden at 8.7 targets for 71.3 yards. The report is long on both sides. For New England, A.J. Brown (ankle), Hunter Henry (foot) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) are questionable, along with tackle Morgan Moses (foot), cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck), defensive tackle Christian Barmore (illness) and safety Kevin Byard (chest). For Green Bay, Christian Watson (rib), tight end Josh Whyle (concussion) and cornerback Keisean Nixon (groin) are questionable, and Micah Parsons is listed PUP-R with a knee. The projection has Brown, Henderson and Watson all playing. The injury table and the Patriots depth chart are live until kick-off.
The model's number
The model has New England 25.3, Green Bay 23.0, a 48.3 total and the Patriots winning 56.6 times in 100. The market has New England by 3.5, so the model is 1.3 points closer: the Packers at +3.5 for 1.89 on BetMGM is a 53.3% call against 50.8%, one star, and not a bet. The Packers on the moneyline at 2.60 on Polymarket is a 41.0% call against 38.5%, three stars, a quarter of a point. It is a small edge on a near coin-flip, and the model's own pick is still New England.
The total is the other gap. The model is 2.8 points over the 45.5 line, and the over at 1.96 on Kalshi is a 53.0% call against 51.0%, two stars: a lean that does not earn a card. The case for the market is that both defences are top ten by points allowed, and the two meetings split one over and one under. The Love under further down pulls against the over, so the over stays a lean. The Packers ATS and Patriots ATS pages carry each side's record against the number.
- Packers to win — Moneyline, GB @ NE, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 2.60 — A 41% shot at 2.60. The model still makes New England the favourite. Game preview
Scorers and props
The scorer board has one real price. Efton Chism III at 3.40 is a 34.7% call against 29.4% implied, 5.3 points, a quarter of a point at most. Christian Watson at 2.65 is 1.9 points up and has the rib injury, and Tucker Kraft at 3.10 is level. The short prices are the wrong way round: Josh Jacobs at 1.76 is a 40.4% call against 56.8%, Rhamondre Stevenson at 1.74 is 40.1% against 57.5%, and A.J. Brown at 2.45 is 28.8% against 40.8%.
The props say Green Bay's offence is narrower than its passing rank suggests. Jordan Love under 273.5 passing yards at 1.86 on bet365 is projected at 238.5, 35 yards under the line, a 62.1% call against 50.0%, five stars, even though the Packers' 280.8 a game is third in the league. Josh Jacobs under 43.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 37.3 on 9.5 carries, 60.4%, five stars, and his under 13.5 carries at 1.83 is the same view. MarShawn Lloyd over 3.5 receiving yards is projected at 9.1, a 61.9% call at 1.86, a small number but a real gap. Both prop edges are wider than eight points, which can mean the line knows something the model does not, so check the team news before kick-off. A Love under sits awkwardly beside a 48.3 model total, so the over is a script and the Love under is a line.
- Jordan Love under 273.5 passing yards — QB, GB — at 1.86 — Projected 238.5 yards, 35 under the line. Game preview
- Josh Jacobs under 43.5 rushing yards — RB, GB — at 1.86 — Projected 37.3 yards on 9.5 carries. Game preview
The verdict
The model makes this closer than the market and still picks the home side by two. That leaves little on the side beyond the Green Bay price at 2.60, a quarter of a point, and the over at 45.5 as a lean without a stake. The position is Green Bay's two unders, half a point each. The news to watch is the questionable tags: Brown, Henderson and Watson are all in the projection, and Whyle's concussion is the other one to check.
Our Best Bets: the Pro page
Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.
Put it to work
- Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
- Packers at Patriots The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
- Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Sunday afternoon.
- Injuries Brown, Henderson and Watson are the names to check before kick-off.