The model has the 49ers by 10.4 against a market of ten, so the side is a pass, but its 48.2 total sits more than four points under the 52.5 line. The numbers, props and scorers for Raiders at 49ers on Sunday afternoon.
A ten-point line and a 52.5 total
San Francisco host Las Vegas on Sunday at 9:25pm UK time, 4:25pm Eastern, at Levi's Stadium, open air, on grass. The 49ers are 6-1 and lead the NFC West, 5-1 over their last six, and the one defeat came last week, 29-20 against Atlanta. The Raiders are 4-4, third in the AFC West and 2-4 over their last six; they beat the Jets 38-33 last week after losing four of the five games before it. The market has San Francisco by ten at a total of 52.5. The full picture is on the game page.
The 49ers have won both meetings, 37-34 in Las Vegas in Week 17 of 2022, a game that finished on 71 points against a line of 41.5, and 34-3 at home in 2018. One went over and one under, and the two averaged a total of 54. This season the Raiders score 27.6 points a game, sixth, and allow 28.8, 31st, with 397.1 yards allowed a game, the most in the league. The 49ers score 28.1, fourth, and allow 19.9, seventh. Both sides are on the Raiders stats and 49ers stats pages.
Where the game is won
The matchup grid is close to a clean sweep for San Francisco on the ground. The 49ers' rushing offence against the Raiders' run defence is a 93% 49ers edge, and so is Las Vegas running against San Francisco. The Raiders allow 146.4 rushing yards a game, 31st, and gain 77.3, also 31st; the 49ers allow 89.0, fifth, and gain 127.4, eighth. The one place Las Vegas lead is the air: their passing against the 49ers' pass defence is a 56% Raiders edge, on 273.1 passing yards a game, fifth, against 223.9 allowed by San Francisco, 11th. The 49ers' passing against the Raiders is a 71% 49ers edge. The 49ers rushing and Raiders passing pages show who carries each side.
The model has Kirk Cousins at 248.9 passing yards, 1.8 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions, Brock Purdy at 236.6 and 1.6, and Christian McCaffrey at 13.6 carries for 63.1 yards and 0.9 touchdowns. That assumes a 49ers skill group with a long report. Brandon Aiyuk is out. McCaffrey (hamstring), Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring), Mike Evans (ribs), Christian Kirk (knee) and Nick Bosa (knee) are all questionable, and the projection has the first four playing. For the Raiders, Roman Hemby is out, tight end Ian Thomas (ankle) and Tyler Scott (undisclosed) are questionable, and defensive tackles Folorunso Fatukasi (shoulder) and Thomas Booker IV (ankle) are on the list. The injury table and the 49ers depth chart update until kick-off.
The model's number
The model has San Francisco 29.3, Las Vegas 18.9, a 48.2 total and the 49ers winning 77.9 times in 100. A margin of 10.4 against a market of ten means the side is a pass: the 49ers at -9.5 for 1.94 on Kalshi is a 52.1% call against 51.5%, one star. The Raiders on the moneyline at 5.13 on Kalshi is a 20.8% call against 19.5%, three stars, a quarter of a point. That is a small price, not a view that Las Vegas will win.
The total is where the model and the market part. The model is more than four points under the 52.5 line, and the under 53 at 1.91 on Fanatics is a 55.6% call against 50.0%, four stars, a half-point bet. The over at 52.5 is a 47.6% call against 51.5%, and not a bet. The case against the under is real: the Raiders have allowed 30 or more in five of their last six, and the 49ers scored 36 and 32 in two of their last five wins. It is a lean, not a lock. How each side has done against the number is on the 49ers ATS and Raiders ATS pages.
- Under 53 points — Total, LV @ SF, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 1.91 — Model total 48.2 against a line of 52.5. Game preview
- Raiders to win — Moneyline, LV @ SF, Sun 9:25pm UK / 4:25pm ET — at 5.13 — About a one-in-five shot at better than 4/1. Game preview
Scorers and props
There is no scorer to back. The model rates Christian McCaffrey at 60.7% to score, but 1.36 implies 73.5%, a gap of 12.8 points the wrong way, and he has hit in each of his last five, which the price already knows. George Kittle at 1.86 is a 35.3% call and Mike Evans at 1.95 a 31.9% call, both more than 18 points short of their prices. On the Raiders side Brock Bowers at 2.10 is 46.2%, 1.4 short, and Ashton Jeanty at 2.40 is 37.8%, 3.9 short.
The props lean on the Raiders' backfield and the 49ers' tight end. Mike Washington Jr. under 40.5 rushing yards at 1.83 on bet365 is projected at 28.8 on 7.5 carries, a 64.8% call, five stars, and his under 10.5 carries (1.95) and under 0.5 receptions (2.10) are the same view of a small role, even with Hemby out. George Kittle under 68.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 51.4, 63.9%, five stars. Ashton Jeanty over 8.5 carries at 2.05 is projected at 10.6, 56.0% against 45.9%, and has cleared it in 80% of his last ten, but it wants a game that stays close, which a ten-point line does not promise, so it is a quarter of a point. Brock Bowers is projected at 66.8 receiving yards against a line of 75.5, a lean to the under that the model does not rate as a prop. All three prop edges are wider than eight points, which can mean the line knows something the model does not, such as news on a role, so check the team news before kick-off. If Evans, Samuel and Kirk sit, the Kittle under is the card most exposed.
- Mike Washington Jr. under 40.5 rushing yards — RB, LV — at 1.83 — Projected 28.8 yards on 7.5 carries. Game preview
- George Kittle under 68.5 receiving yards — TE, SF — at 1.86 — Projected 51.4 yards. Check the receivers' status first. Game preview
- Ashton Jeanty over 8.5 carries — RB, LV — at 2.05 — Projected 10.6 carries. It needs a game that stays close. Game preview
The verdict
The model and the market agree on the winner, so the position is on the points. San Francisco are a ten-point favourite the model rates at 10.4, which leaves nothing to bet on the side, and the total is the disagreement. Half a point on the under 53, a quarter on the Raiders at 5.13, and half a point each on the Washington and Kittle unders, with a quarter on Jeanty's carries. The news to watch is the 49ers' skill group: McCaffrey, Samuel, Evans and Kirk are all projected and all questionable, and the player projections carry all four.
Our Best Bets: the Pro page
Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.
Put it to work
- Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
- Raiders at 49ers The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
- Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Sunday afternoon.
- Injuries McCaffrey, Samuel, Evans and Kirk are the names to check before kick-off.