Detroit lead the league in yards and rank 32nd in passing yards allowed, and the market makes them seven-point favourites at 1-6 Miami. The model says 3.4. The numbers, props and slips for Lions at Dolphins.
Seven points, and the league's leakiest pass defence
The Lions travel to Miami on Sunday, kick-off 6pm UK time, 1pm Eastern, at Hard Rock Stadium, open air, on grass. Detroit are 5-2, third in the NFC North, and arrive on three straight wins: 45-21 over Arizona, 20-17 over Green Bay and 19-15 over Minnesota last week. The Dolphins are 1-6, fourth in the AFC East, with one win in their last six, 28-25 over the Jets, and lost 24-19 to New England last week. The market has Detroit by seven at a total of 50.5. Everything else is on the game page.
The series is split 1-1, with Miami 0-1 at home and an average total of 55.5, over both times. In 2022 the Dolphins won 31-27 in Detroit as 3.5-point road favourites, 58 points against a line of 52. In 2018 the Lions won 32-21 in Miami, favoured by three, 53 points against 47. The season tape is lopsided in one direction: Detroit score 29.0 a game, third, and lead the league in total yards at 412 a game and in first downs at 24.6; Miami score 16.7, 31st, and throw for 181.1 yards a game, 31st. The other half is Detroit's problem. They allow 298.7 passing yards a game, 32nd, and 395.3 yards in all, 29th. The Lions stats and Dolphins stats pages carry the rest.
Where the game is won
The grid is Detroit's on three of four lines. Detroit passing against Miami's pass defence and Detroit rushing against Miami's run defence are each a 60% Lions edge, and Miami rushing into Detroit's run defence is 52% the same way. The exception is Miami's passing against Detroit's pass defence, a 67% Dolphins edge and the largest number on the grid. It comes with a catch: that offence is 31st in passing yards, and the model has Malik Willis at 237 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns against 264.8 and 1.7 for Jared Goff. Detroit have 24 sacks, third; Miami have nine, 30th. The Lions passing page shows where the yards come from.
The injury report is long on both sides. For Detroit, Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury, Penei Sewell is questionable, Brian Branch is questionable with a concussion, Jack Campbell is doubtful with a neck injury and Kerby Joseph is on PUP-R with a knee. For Miami, Jaylen Waddle is questionable, De'Von Achane is on injured reserve with a knee and so is Tyreek Hill. Jaylen Wright and Kaytron Allen are both questionable with a quadricep, and Kadyn Proctor is questionable with a concussion. The model's receivers for the Dolphins are Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, none above 6.3 targets, and it has Ollie Gordon II carrying 14.6 times for 49.6 yards, so the backfield news matters most. Both depth charts will move before kick-off.
The model's number
The model has Detroit 26.6, Miami 23.2, a 49.8 total, and the Lions winning 60 times in 100. The market has them by seven, so the model still takes the Lions but by 3.4. Miami plus seven at 1.926 on BetRivers is a 56.2% call against 49.5% implied, four stars, a half-point bet. The gap is 6.8 points, just short of the eight where we treat a number as a flag, so the stake does not go higher. The moneyline card is more cautious than the headline win rate: Miami at 3.92 on Kalshi is a 32.8% call against 25.5%, three stars, a quarter of a point. Detroit minus 6.5 at 1.901 on Kalshi is 46.8% against 52.6%, no stars, and not a bet.
The total is no bet either. The model's 49.8 is under the 50.5 line, and the under at 1.952 on DraftKings is 51.5% against 48.9%, one star. Both meetings cleared their lines by six points, which is history and not a price. Both teams' records against the number are on the Lions ATS and Dolphins ATS pages.
- Dolphins +7 v the Lions — Spread, DET @ MIA, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 1.926 — The model has Detroit by 3.4, the market by seven. A 6.8-point edge, so the stake stays at half. Game preview
- Dolphins to win — Moneyline, DET @ MIA, Sun 6pm UK / 1pm ET — at 3.92 — A one-in-three shot at nearly 3/1. Game preview
Scorers, props and the slips
The scorer board has no value on it. Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.23 is a 76.2% call, 5.1 points short of the price. Amon-Ra St. Brown at 1.83 is 41.8%, 12.8 short, and he is questionable with a rib. Ollie Gordon II at 2.00 is 49.3%, 0.7 short, and Jameson Williams at 2.50 is 40.1%, level. Sam LaPorta at 2.75 is 32.0%, 4.4 short. Nothing there is a bet.
The props are where the model has a view, and most of them are unders. Gordon is projected at 49.6 rushing yards against a line of 70.5, 4.5 receiving yards against 9.5 and 1.2 receptions against 1.5. Willis is at 27.5 rushing yards against 34.5. On the Detroit side Goff is projected at one carry against a line of 1.5, and Sione Vaki at 3.6 carries and 14.5 rushing yards against lines of 5.5 and 21.5, with his receiving yards projected at 6.3 against a line of 1.5. All are five-star calls at bet365, and the gaps to the market are well past the eight points where we treat a number as a flag, so a line may be reflecting news the model has not seen. The caveat is the Miami backfield: Wright and Allen are both questionable, so check Gordon's news before you take his lines.
Three slips are listed, each a tenth of a point. One Passing Game at 83.92 has St. Brown over 79.5 receiving yards, LaPorta over 49.5 yards and over 5.5 receptions, and Goff over 324.5 passing yards, the model at 7.0% against 1.2% implied. Second Receiver Ceiling at 60.42 pairs Williams over 69.5 yards and over 5.5 catches with the same Goff leg, 6.8% against 1.7%. Throwing Festival at 148.12 adds LaPorta to score, Greg Dulcich over 39.5 yards and Willis over 249.5 passing yards, 3.6% against 0.7%. Every one needs Goff to throw for 324.5, about 60 above his 264.8, and the LaPorta touchdown is a leg the model prices below the market. The slips are scripts. The unders above are lines.
- Ollie Gordon II under 70.5 rushing yards — RB, MIA — at 1.86 — Projected 49.6 yards. Wright and Allen are both questionable. Game preview
- Malik Willis under 34.5 rushing yards — QB, MIA — at 1.86 — Projected 27.5 yards. Game preview
- Jared Goff under 1.5 carries — QB, DET — at 2.15 — Projected one carry, at plus money. Game preview
The verdict
The model has Detroit by 3.4 and the market by seven, and the question is whether a team that is 1-6 and scores 16.7 a game stays within a score of the league's top offence by yards. The case for the Lions is the whole season tape and three wins in a row. The case for the Dolphins is the number and the one mismatch on the grid, a pass attack against the pass defence that ranks 32nd in yards allowed. Half a point on Miami plus seven, a quarter on the moneyline, and the five-star unders as small positions. The news to watch is St. Brown's rib, Waddle's status, Sewell, and the quadricep injuries to Wright and Allen.
Our Best Bets: the Pro page
Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.
Put it to work
- Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
- Lions at Dolphins The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
- Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Sunday.
- Injuries St. Brown and Waddle are the names to check before kick-off.