Dallas are 5.5-point favourites at a 2-6 Indianapolis side the model rates by 0.7 the other way. The Colts' number, the quiet-role unders and the scorers for Cowboys at Colts on Sunday.
Dallas by 5.5, and the model goes the other way
Sunday's game at Lucas Oil Stadium kicks off at 6:00pm UK time, 1:00pm Eastern, on FieldTurf. Dallas are 3-5, second in the NFC East, 2-4 in their last six, and lost 33-30 to Arizona last week. Indianapolis are 2-6, third in the AFC South, also 2-4 in their last six, and were beaten 42-7 by Jacksonville. The market has the Cowboys by 5.5 at a total of 51.5; the model has the Colts by 0.7 at 51.6. The game page has the full picture.
The series is level at 1-1 in the last two meetings. Dallas won 54-19 in Week 13 of 2022 as 11-point home favourites, and Indianapolis won 23-0 in Week 15 of 2018, so one over and one under at an average total of 48. This season the Cowboys score 27.4 points a game, seventh, but allow 26.6, 27th, and 396.9 yards, 31st. Their rushing defence gives up 152.8 yards a game, the most in the league. The Colts score 20.1, 26th, allow 27.8, 30th, and have the worst turnover margin in the league at minus 11. The Cowboys stats and Colts rushing pages carry the detail.
Where the game is won
The matchup grid is lopsided in one place. Indianapolis running against the Dallas rush defence is a 94% Colts edge, the biggest number on the grid. Dallas passing against Indianapolis is a 52% Cowboys edge, Dallas running a 57% edge, and the Colts passing against the Dallas pass defence a 65% Cowboys edge. So the model's Colts lead runs through Jonathan Taylor, projected at 74.0 rushing yards on 15.6 carries and 0.7 touchdowns, with Daniel Jones at 220.2 passing yards. Dallas answer with Dak Prescott at 257.9 yards and 1.7 touchdowns, Javonte Williams at 18.8 carries for 78.8 yards, and CeeDee Lamb at 11.5 targets and 93.0 yards.
The injury report is heaviest in the Dallas secondary. Cornerbacks Josh Butler and Caelen Carson are out, Shavon Revel Jr. and Zion Childress are questionable, and safeties Caleb Downs and P.J. Locke are both questionable with concussions. George Pickens (hamstring), KaVontae Turpin (ribs), Jake Ferguson (ankle) and Luke Schoonmaker (groin) carry questionable tags on offence. For Indianapolis, Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel, Anthony Gould (concussion) and Ashton Dulin are questionable at wide receiver, and tight ends Drew Ogletree (knee) and Sean McKeon are questionable. The 65% Cowboys edge on the Colts' passing game is worth rechecking if the secondary is thinner on Sunday than this table suggests. Both depth charts are live and the injury table updates until kick-off.
The model's number
The model has Indianapolis 26.2, Dallas 25.5, a 51.6 total, and the Colts winning 52.1 times in 100. The total sits on the market's 51.5, so the whole gap is the side, a 6.2-point swing. The Colts plus 6.0 at 1.91 on BetRivers is a 60.7% call against 49.8% implied, five stars, and a half-point bet. Dallas minus 5.5 is 8.8 points the wrong way and not a bet. An edge of nearly eleven points is a flag as well as a price: the model may be missing news, so the stake stays at half a point and no more. The Colts on the moneyline at 3.28 on Polymarket is a 41.3% call against 30.5%, three stars, a quarter of a point; that card carries a lower model figure than the headline 52.1%, so read it as the cautious version.
The case for Dallas is plain. They are seventh in points, the Colts defence is 30th, and Indianapolis were beaten 42-7 last week. That is why the stake stays at half a point. Records against the number are on the Cowboys ATS and Colts ATS pages.
- Colts +6.0 v the Cowboys — Spread, DAL @ IND, Sun 6:00pm UK / 1:00pm ET — at 1.91 — The model has Indianapolis by 0.7. An edge near eleven points is a flag as well as a price. Game preview
- Colts to win — Moneyline, DAL @ IND, Sun 6:00pm UK / 1:00pm ET — at 3.28 — A 41% shot at better than 11/5. Same flag as the spread. Game preview
Scorers, props and the slips
The prop board is unders on quiet roles. [Keenan Allen] under 4.5 receptions at 1.95 is projected at 3.6, a 60.5% call against 48.0%, five stars, and the under has landed in four of his last five and six of his last ten; his under 50.5 receiving yards at 1.86, projected at 39.5, is the same view. [Tyler Warren] under 46.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 35.1, 63.1% against 50.0%, but the under has hit in two of his last five and two of ten, so it is a model view more than a trend. [Tyler Goodson] under 21.5 rushing yards at 1.86 is projected at 15.8 on 4.1 carries, behind Williams at 18.8, a 63.3% call, though it has hit in one of his last five and two of ten. On the other side, CeeDee Lamb over 6.5 receptions at 2.00 is a 59.1% call on a projection of 7.5, a lean with no star rating on the sheet, and a 12.3-point edge is a flag for missing news rather than a bet.
The scorers give nothing. Javonte Williams at 1.45 is a 56.7% call against 69.0% implied, Jonathan Taylor at 1.64 is 52.5% against 61.0%, Lamb at 1.74 is 42.4% against 57.5%, and Pickens at 2.30 is 28.6% against 43.5%. Williams and Taylor are the likeliest scorers in the model's eyes, and none of the four is a bet. The Single Game Parlays page lists two slips. Throwing Festival, at 107.63, is Josh Downs over 32.5 receiving yards, Prescott over 299.5 and Jones over 249.5 passing yards, and Ryan Flournoy to score and over 37.5 receiving yards: the model at 2.9% against 0.9% implied, a tenth of a point. Second Receiver Ceiling, at 33.91, is Pickens over 69.5 receiving yards with Prescott over 299.5 and Jones over 274.5: 5.48% against 2.95%, 0.15 of a point, with Pickens questionable. Both need Jones to throw far beyond his 220.2 projection, which cuts across the Allen and Warren unders. The slips are a script and the singles are a line.
- Keenan Allen under 4.5 receptions — WR, IND — at 1.95 — Projected 3.6. The under has hit in four of his last five. Game preview
- Tyler Warren under 46.5 receiving yards — TE, IND — at 1.86 — Projected 35.1 yards. Recent hit rate is two in five, so the stake stays small. Game preview
- Tyler Goodson under 21.5 rushing yards — RB, DAL — at 1.86 — Projected 15.8 yards on 4.1 carries. The same bet as his under 5.5 carries. Game preview
The verdict
The model has Indianapolis by 0.7 and the market has Dallas by 5.5, and the case for the Colts is a ground game that the grid rates at 94% against the league's most generous rushing defence. The case against is a team with the worst turnover margin in the league that lost 42-7 last week. Half a point on the Colts plus six, a quarter on the moneyline, and the unders on the quiet roles. The news to watch is the Dallas secondary, Pickens' hamstring and Gould's concussion.
Our Best Bets: the Pro page
Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 77-58, 15.05 points up at a 9.7% return. The Sunday card goes out on Friday morning.
Put it to work
- Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 77-58, +15.05 points, 9.7% ROI.
- Cowboys at Colts The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
- Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Sunday.
- Injuries The Dallas secondary, Pickens and Gould are the names to check before kick-off.