Champions League Goal Glut: The Shots Say It's Real, and Our Model Missed It
Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal. Napoli 4-3 Bodø/Glimt. LASK Linz 3-6 Liverpool six days earlier. Manchester City 2-4 PSG. Three matchdays into the new league phase, the Champions League feels like it's scoring more than it used to, so we went and checked.
The 54 matches so far have produced 221 goals, 4.09 a game. The same three matchdays last season gave 3.70, and the whole of last season's league phase 3.38. Goals are up, and the reason looks real, because shots are up too. How long it lasts is another question. Last year's early surge faded, and three matchdays isn't much to go on.
How we tested it
We took every completed league-phase match this season, matchdays 1 to 3 and 54 games, and set it against two baselines from our own database: the same three matchdays of 2025/26 (54 games) and all eight of last season's matchdays (144). For each we counted goals, shots, shots on target, both teams scoring and the over 2.5 and 3.5 lines, then ran a Poisson test on the goals and shots and a two-proportion test on the rates. The match data sits behind the Champions League xG table and the league phase standings.
The fair comparison is the first baseline. Last season's opening three matchdays averaged 3.70 goals and the next five 3.19, so measuring against the whole of last season flatters this year's rise.
Champions League league phase: 2026/27 against last season
Per match. Matchdays 1 to 3 against the same rounds last year, and against all eight
| Measure | 2026/27 MD1-3 | 2025/26 MD1-3 | 2025/26 all 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 54 | 54 | 144 |
| Goals a game | 4.09 | 3.70 | 3.38 |
| Shots a game | 29.7 | 27.2 | 27.1 |
| On target a game | 11.3 | 10.3 | 10.2 |
| Goals per shot on target | 36.3% | 35.8% | 33.3% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 72% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% | 57% | 45% |
| Draws | 11% | 20% | 17% |
Shots are the story
Goals are up, but it isn't proven yet. 4.09 against 3.70 is 0.39 more goals a game, and the test puts it at z=1.02 (p=0.31), well within what chance produces. Against all of last season it clears the bar (z=2.26, p=0.024), but that's the generous comparison.
Shots are the number that holds up. 29.7 a game against 27.2 in the same rounds last season is a rise of 9% (z=2.40, p=0.016), and shots are higher than last year on all three matchdays (29.0, 30.1 and 30.1 against 28.1, 24.9 and 28.7). Shots on target are up by the same proportion, 11.3 against 10.3, though that on its own is inside the noise (z=1.46, p=0.14).
Finishing hasn't changed. Teams are scoring from 36.3% of their shots on target against 35.8% last year (z=0.18). The extra goals are coming from extra chances, and nobody's on a hot finishing run. One caveat: expected goals only exist for the first matchday so far (18 of the 54 matches), and on those goals ran 0.6 a game above xG, against 0.3 over last season's first three matchdays. That's too few matches to lean on.
More home goals, fewer draws. Home sides are scoring 2.50 a game against 1.93 across last season, and only 6 of 54 matches (11%) have been drawn, against 20% in the same rounds last year (z=-1.32, p=0.19). Both teams have scored in 67% of games and over 3.5 goals has landed in 63%, against 55% and 45% across all of last season (the over 3.5 gap is z=2.23), but neither stands out against the same rounds.
Where the goals came from
Thirteen of the 54 matches have had six or more goals, against ten in the same rounds last year. Liverpool have been in two of the six games with seven or more, and PSG, Inter, Real Madrid and Napoli in one each.
The biggest scorelines
Every match with seven or more goals so far
| Match | Score | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| LASK Linz v Liverpool | 3-6 | 9 |
| PSG v Slovan Bratislava | 6-1 | 7 |
| Inter v Club Brugge | 3-4 | 7 |
| Roma v Real Madrid | 3-4 | 7 |
| Liverpool v Villarreal | 4-3 | 7 |
| Napoli v Bodø/Glimt | 4-3 | 7 |
Barcelona 5-1 Feyenoord, Viking 3-3 Bayern, Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe and Manchester City 2-4 PSG make up the rest of the top ten, and the league-wide numbers are on the Champions League player stats page.
Has the market noticed?
We've tracked bet365's match-level over 2.5 price since the start of this season, so there's no last-season price to compare against, but we can set the closing price against what happened. Across the 52 matches with a price, the average was 1.45, an implied 70.3% before the bookmaker's margin. Over 2.5 landed in 39 of them, 75.0%, with a standard error of about 6 points, so the gap is inside the noise.
By matchday it's 70.7%, 68.2% and 71.8% implied against 70.6%, 76.5% and 77.8% actual. The average price was 1.45 on matchday one, 1.50 on matchday two and 1.41 on matchday three. That's movement, but not in step with the scoring: matchday two had the most goals and the longest price. The market hasn't ignored the trend and it isn't obviously behind it either. Today's prices are on the acca sheet and football predictions today.
Our model missed it
We checked our own projections against the same matches. For the 28 with a projection stored before kick-off, the model expected 3.46 goals a game and the matches produced 4.71 (z=3.56). It put over 2.5 at 66.2% when 82.1% landed, and the bookmaker, on those same 28, implied 70.5%. So the model sat below the market and further from the results than either.
The cause isn't clear yet. One possibility is that it leans on last season's lower scoring. Until the gap closes, treat our Champions League over 2.5 numbers as conservative.
What to watch
Watch the shots rather than the goals. If matchdays 4 to 8 keep producing around 30 a match, there's something real here. If they drift back towards last season's 27, the early rounds were noise, which is what happened to last year's scoring (3.70 across the first three matchdays, 3.19 across the next five). Overs at around 1.45 already imply 70% and the 75% observed so far is within noise of that, so we wouldn't assume they're underpriced.
We'll run this again after matchday five, by which time expected goals should be in for every match. Until then our Champions League guide, the Daily Acca, our earlier Champions League acca, the best bets for Tuesday and Wednesday, and the look at whether goals are up across Europe have the rest.
Champions League tickets
Champions League tickets up for grabs: bet365 - a Statz partner - has launched its Big Ticket Giveaway ballot for the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, with matchday tickets to be won. Enter the ballot here. 18+. New and eligible customers; registration required; entry details and full terms on the ballot page. T&Cs apply | begambleaware.org
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Data from our own match database, correct to 22 October 2026. Odds correct at time of writing.