Football Predictions Today

Free football predictions for Sunday 15 November 2026 from the Statz model: a win probability for every priced match, the strongest calls first and the value long shots where our projection beats the price.

The model's strongest calls

Value long shots

How the Statz model makes its predictions

Every projection on this page comes from the Statz model, which prices match outcomes from the underlying performance data: expected goals for and against, shot volumes and quality, home and away splits, squad availability and schedule effects. The model produces a win probability for each side of every covered fixture, and those probabilities are recalculated as new data lands rather than set once and left to age.

The strongest calls block is the model at its most confident: the sides with the highest projected win probability on the day's card, one per match. A 78% projection does not mean a certainty - roughly one in five of those still goes wrong, and that is exactly what the number says it should do.

What "value" means in the long shots block

Every price implies a probability, but the raw conversion (100 divided by the decimal odds) includes the bookmaker's margin. We strip that margin out across the full market to get the fair implied probability, then compare it with our projection. When the model rates a side meaningfully higher than the fair price does - and the price is a genuine long shot - it appears here with the gap shown in percentage points.

Value picks lose more often than favourites, by definition. The claim is not that they win today; it is that the price is bigger than the chance, which is the only bet worth making at long odds. Judge the block over months, not afternoons.

How to use these predictions

Treat the probabilities as the starting point, not the finish line. Check team news before kick-off - a projection made on expected line-ups moves when a key player drops out. The Full match stats links carry the head-to-head record, form breakdowns and the market prices for every fixture.

If you want the model's picks combined into a slip, The Daily Acca publishes one accountable card a day with its full record, and the Acca Builder prices any combination you build yourself. This page deliberately publishes singles: the probabilities are per match, and multiplying them is a choice you should make knowingly.

Football predictions FAQs

Are these football predictions free?

Yes. The predictions on this page are free and refresh through the day as prices and projections move. Statz Pro unlocks the deeper projection tools behind them, but this page never hides its picks.

How are the win probabilities calculated?

The Statz model builds them from underlying match data - expected goals, shot quality, venue splits, availability and schedule - rather than league position or gut feel. Probabilities update as new information arrives.

What does the "vs price" number mean?

It is the gap, in percentage points, between our projected probability and the margin-free probability implied by the bookmaker's price. A positive number means the model rates the outcome as more likely than the price says.

Do you guarantee winners?

No, and no honest predictions site can. A 60% projection loses four times in ten. We publish the probabilities and the reasoning; the record of our published tips lives on The Daily Acca page and the tips track record.

What is the difference between this page and your AI football predictions page?

This page is today's card: the model's strongest calls and value picks for the next 24 hours. The AI football predictions page explains how the models work across every market and links to each tool.

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Projections are probabilities, not promises. Nothing here is advice to bet.