Fulham host Crystal Palace at Craven Cottage in the Carabao Cup fourth round (the last 16) on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 19:45 UK. Fulham won 1-0 at Coventry on Saturday, while Palace have lost three of their last four, most recently 2-0 at home to Newcastle on Sunday. The clubs met at Craven Cottage on 5 September, when Palace won 3-2 in the league.
Both clubs are likely to rotate. Our model makes Fulham 47% to win in 90 minutes, Palace 27% and the draw 26%, with 1.65 goals projected for Fulham and 1.20 for Palace. Those figures come from season-long numbers and assume each club's usual side, so a rotated tie is likelier to be closer and looser than they show. Last round's XIs are set out below.
Fulham have won their last two league games, a 1-0 win at Coventry on 24 October and a 1-0 home win over Hull a week earlier, after a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich on 10 October. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Manchester United on 20 September, and over their last ten games in all competitions Fulham have won four, drawn two and lost four.
Crystal Palace have lost three of their last four. They lost 2-0 at home to Newcastle on Sunday, drew 2-2 at Beşiktaş in the Europa League on 22 October, lost 5-0 at Brighton on 18 October and 3-2 at Lyon in the Europa League on 15 October. Their last win was a 3-1 home victory over Forest on 11 October, and over their last ten in all competitions Palace have won four, drawn two and lost four.
Our projection, which assumes the usual sides, has Fulham on 15.93 shots, 5.24 of them on target, to Palace's 11.12 and 3.87, with 10.15 fouls for Fulham and 10.46 for Palace.
Fulham's previous Carabao Cup tie is the guide to their side. On 15 September they won 3-2 at West Ham United in the third round with Benjamin Lecomte in goal and an XI of Timothy Castagne, Joachim Andersen, Jorge Cuenca, Antonee Robinson, Harrison Reed, Hugo Larsson, Kevin, César Palacios, Emile Smith Rowe and Rodrigo Muniz. That was nine changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 0-0 draw at Liverpool on 12 September; only Castagne and Robinson kept their place.
Three of that West Ham XI, Larsson, Castagne and Robinson, started Saturday's 1-0 win at Coventry City, so a rotated side on Wednesday is likely to mix regulars with players from the wider squad. Fulham's next two games after this are Aston Villa away in the Premier League at 8pm on Saturday 31 October and Newcastle United at home on Saturday 7 November.
Crystal Palace's previous cup tie was a 3-0 home win over Middlesbrough in the third round on 8 September, with Walter Benítez in goal and an XI of Axel Disasi, Honest Ahanor, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben Chilwell, Óscar Mingueza, Will Hughes, Quinten Timber, Darío Osorio, Yéremy Pino and Jørgen Strand Larsen. That was eight changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 3-2 win at Fulham on 5 September; Pino, Disasi and Timber kept their place.
Three of that Middlesbrough XI, Pino, Disasi and Benítez, started Sunday's defeat to Newcastle, so Palace's cup side is likely to differ from their league side again. Their next two games after this are Tottenham Hotspur away in the Premier League at 5.30pm on Saturday 31 October and TSG Hoffenheim at home in the Europa League on Thursday 5 November.
The possible starting lineups further down already lean on last round's players: Fulham's is the same eleven that started at West Ham United, and eight of Crystal Palace's started against Middlesbrough.
Fulham possible starting lineup:
Lecomte; Castagne, Andersen, Cuenca, Robinson; Reed, Larsson; Kevin, Palacios, Smith Rowe; Muniz
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
Benítez; Mingueza, Richards, Disasi, Ahanor; Chilwell, Wharton; Osorio, Hughes, Pino; Mateta
Bookmakers have Fulham at 1.80 with Ladbrokes to win, Palace at 4.33 with bet365 and the draw at 3.90 with Ladbrokes. Our model also has Fulham ahead, with the caveat above: its numbers are built on both clubs' seasons, not the rotated sides we expect.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 1.80 (Ladbrokes) | 47% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Ladbrokes) | 26% |
| Crystal Palace win | 4.33 (bet365) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (Midnite) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 54% |
We predict 1-1 on the model's numbers. That is the likeliest single score at 12.0%, though we make Fulham 47% to win in 90 minutes, with 2-1 and 1-0 to Fulham the next likeliest scores. Fulham keep a clean sheet in 30% of our simulations and Palace in 19%. A tie level after 90 minutes goes to a penalty shoot-out, and with both clubs likely to rotate the real game could be looser than those figures suggest.