TSG Hoffenheim host Olympique Lyonnais at the PreZero Arena on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, in a Europa League league-stage game that pairs a side still searching for its first point with one that has started with two wins. Hoffenheim sit 30th of 36 on zero points, while Lyon are 8th on six.
The bookmakers and our model both lean towards the home side, which makes for an unusual set-up: the team with the worse record is the favourite. Goals look likely at both ends.
Hoffenheim have lost both of their league-stage games, scoring two and conceding five. They went down 2-0 at OFI on the opening night, then lost 2-3 at home to Beşiktaş last week They do arrive with a lift: a 2-1 win at Gladbach on Sunday ended a run of four straight defeats in all competitions. Before that came a 2-3 home loss to Hamburg.
In Europe they concede 2.5 a game, commit 20.5 fouls and collect 4 cards a game, and win 7.5 corners.
Lyon sit 8th in the table after a 2-1 win at Anderlecht and a 3-2 home win over Palace. In the league they followed that with a 2-1 win over Nice on Sunday, having lost 2-1 at Lens the week before. Lyon have won six of their last ten matches.
Both of Lyon's European games have been goal-filled. They score 2.5 a game and average 7 shots on target, and both games have been over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring. They commit 8 fouls a game.
Neither side has kept a clean sheet in Europe this season, and the gap between 30th and 8th is six points.
TSG Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Coufal, Kabak, Machida, Bernardo; Burger, Avdullahu; Daghim, Kramaric, Hlozek; Asllani
Olympique Lyonnais possible starting lineup:
Greif; Athekame, Bacher, Kluivert, Abner; Morton, Nartey; Nuamah, Tolisso, Nakamura; Merah
Wouter Burger has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, with 2, 2, 5, 2 and 1 across them, and he is 1.30 at bet365 to do it again.
Koki Machida has committed a foul in each of his last five, averaging 2.6, and is 1.22 at midnite for one more here. Ozan Kabak has done the same, with five fouls in one of those games, and is 1.30 at midnite.
Khalis Merah has made at least one tackle in each of his last five for Lyon, averaging 2.6, and is 1.30 at bet365.
Adam Hlozek is 3.25 for two or more fouls, which our model ranks among the likeliest in the match.
We back Hoffenheim to win at 2.10 with Midnite: our model gives them 43%, with 24% for the draw and 33% for a Lyon win. Hoffenheim are projected 1.71 goals to Lyon's 1.46, and both teams to score is 63% in our numbers.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 2.10 (midnite) | 43% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Lyon win | 3.40 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (ladbrokes) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 61% |
1-1 is the likeliest score at 11%, and a draw is in play, though we make Hoffenheim more likely to win. 2-1 and 1-2 come next. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw.