Lillestrøm host Real Sociedad at Åråsen Stadion on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game between two sides who have each taken one point from their first two matches. Both have a draw, a defeat and a goal difference of minus one, and the Norwegians sit 23rd in the table with Sociedad one place above them in 22nd. The gap between them is in the bookmakers' prices and in what has happened since: Sociedad arrive off a 5-2 win away at Málaga.
Lillestrøm are 23rd of 36 in the Europa League table with a 1-2 home defeat to Torreense and a 1-1 draw at Sparta Praha behind them. They have scored twice and conceded three. The draw in Prague was the second in a run of three unbeaten games, and it came after they drew 2-2 at home to Molde and before they won 2-0 at Sandefjord on Sunday.
Their defending at home has been leaky enough to keep this interesting. Lillestrøm have kept a clean sheet in only 25% of their games in the competition and both teams have scored in 75% of them. They average 3.75 shots on target a game.
Real Sociedad are 22nd, level on a point after a 1-2 home loss to Bournemouth and a 1-1 draw at Union SG. Domestically they have been scoring freely, winning 5-2 at Málaga, 3-2 against Deportivo and 3-2 at Valencia in their last five. They have not kept a clean sheet in the Europa League this season and both teams have scored in every one of their games. Their shots on target average is 3 a game.
Lillestrøm possible starting lineup:
Dahlberg; Ranger, Gabrielsen, Kristiansen, Paintsil; Ibrahimaj, Ottosson, Nyheim; Bassi, Gulbrandsen, Vá
Real Sociedad possible starting lineup:
Marrero; Sarr, Zubeldia, Martín, Gómez; Turrientes, Gorrotxategi, Ochieng; Sucic, Oyarzabal, Guedes
Gonçalo Guedes has had a shot on target in four of his last five games and is 1.36 at bet365 to do it again.
Jon Martín has had six shots in his last five games and at least one in four of them, and he is 1.80 at bet365 for a shot.
Lars Ranger is 4.33 for two or more shots, which our model ranks the likeliest in the match.
Fredrik Gulbrandsen has committed a foul in four of his last five games, once four in a single match, and Ruben Gabrielsen has done the same, with 1.70 on offer for him to do it again.
We back Real Sociedad to win at 1.50 with bet365. Lillestrøm are 6.00 and the draw is 4.60. Over 2.5 goals is 1.62 and both teams to score is 1.75, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lillestrøm win | 6.00 (bet365) | 19% |
| Draw | 4.60 (Ladbrokes) | 22% |
| Real Sociedad win | 1.50 (bet365) | 59% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 62% |
Our model has Sociedad scoring 2.09 goals to Lillestrøm's 1.12, and it expects goals at both ends: Sociedad keep a clean sheet only about a third of the time and Lillestrøm just 12%. 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline, so a draw is in play, though we make Sociedad clear favourites to win. Our prediction is Lillestrøm 1-1 Real Sociedad, with 1-2 almost level on probability.