Viktoria Plzeň host Levski Sofia at the Doosan Aréna on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, in the Europa League league stage. Plzeň are 31st of 36 with no points from two games. Levski are 25th with one. Neither side can afford to lose ground, and the bookmakers make the home side clear favourites at 1.80 with Ladbrokes.
Plzeň's league stage so far has been a pair of defeats: 0-3 at home to Union SG and then 2-1 at Ferencvárosi last Thursday. That leaves them with one goal scored and five conceded, and sitting 31st in the Europa League table. They have lost three of their last four. The one real high in that run was a 5-1 win over Crvena Zvezda in August, which came a week after a 3-0 defeat in Belgrade.
What Plzeň do create is shots. They average 7.25 shots on target and score 1.5 goals a game, and both of their league stage games have gone over 2.5 goals. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet.
Levski Sofia come in 25th after a 1-1 draw at NEC Nijmegen, having lost 0-1 at home to Salzburg on the opening night. Their qualifying run before that was a 1-0 win at Kairat, a 0-0 draw with AEK Athens and a 4-0 defeat in Athens. They concede one a game and score 0.5, and they average just one shot on target a game.
Viktoria Plzeň possible starting lineup:
Ťapaj; Sojka, Doski, Hrosovsky, Panos; Kabongo, Gabriel, Pirgić; Dweh, Prebsl, Memic
Levski Sofia possible starting lineup:
Maicon, Makoun, Reinaldo, Grujić; Everton Bala, Moubarik, Aldair; Kusso, Serginho, Dimitrov, Vutsov
Everton Bala is the shooter in the Levski side. He has had two or more shots in four of his last five games, and he is 1.33 at bet365 to have 2+ shots here.
Kristian Dimitrov is another Levski name to note. He is 2.20 for a shot and 5.00 for a shot on target, and our model ranks him among the likeliest in the match for both.
Marko Grujić has committed at least one foul in four of his last five. He averages one a game and is 1.30 with Midnite to commit one again.
Adam Gabriel has committed a foul in each of his last five matches, and is 1.30 with Midnite to make it six in a row.
The bookmakers have Plzeň as favourites at 1.80, with the draw at 3.80 and Levski at 4.50. Goals look likely given Plzeň's record: over 2.5 goals is 1.73 and both teams to score is 1.67 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Plzeň to win | 1.80 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | - |
| Levski Sofia to win | 4.50 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | - |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | - |
Neither side has won in the league stage: Plzeň's goal difference is minus four and Levski's is minus one, and the game kicks off at 8pm UK at the Doosan Aréna. We expect Plzeň to win at home, with Levski yet to win in the league stage: they shoot far more than Levski, who average one shot on target a game, and they badly need points.