Olympiacos F.C. host Sparta Praha at the Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game between two unbeaten sides. Olympiacos have won both of their matches and sit 10th. Sparta are 11th, with a win and a draw, and have scored five goals in those two games.
The home side keep things tight and the visitors do not, which is where this game comes from. Olympiacos have conceded once in two league-stage games, while Sparta have scored in both of theirs.
Olympiacos are on six points from two, which puts them 10th of 36 in the Europa League table. They won 2-1 at home to Jagiellonia, then went to Marseille and won 1-0 in their most recent game. They have kept a clean sheet in one of their two league-stage games.
Before that, Olympiacos' Champions League qualifying ended with a 2-1 loss at NEC Nijmegen, after a goalless draw in the home leg. Their shots on target average is 5 per game.
Sparta Praha are on four points. They won 4-1 away at Ararat, then drew 1-1 at home to Lillestrøm in their latest outing. Both of their league-stage games have seen both teams score.
The numbers behind that are big. Sparta average 2.5 goals, 8 shots on target and 9.5 corners a game. At the other end they have no clean sheets, concede a goal a game and commit 15.5 fouls a game.
Olympiacos F.C. possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Saliakas, Pirola, Retsos, Onyemaechi; Puerta, Hezze; Chiquinho, Jota Silva, Gelson Martins; González
Sparta Praha possible starting lineup:
Surovcik; Suchomel, Zelený, Sevinsky, Guddal; Sochurek, Mannsverk; Singhateh, Irving, Jurasek; Braut Brunes
Armando González has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, seven in total. The 1+ shots on target line is 1.10 at bet365.
Gelson Martins has committed a foul in four of his last five and is 1.30 at Midnite for one or more. Bruno Onyemaechi has done the same in four of five, nine fouls in total, and is 1.20 at Midnite.
For Sparta, Adam Sevinsky is our model's second likeliest player in the match to have a shot, at 2.75. Andrew Irving is rated fifth most likely for a shot and is 1.80 for one or more. Martin Suchomel is 4.33 for a shot on target, the model's fourth most likely player for it.
The bookmakers have Olympiacos at 1.53 with bet365. A draw is 4.33 at Ladbrokes and Sparta are 6.25 at bet365. Goals look likely too, with both teams to score at 1.91, over 1.5 goals at 1.25 and over 2.5 goals at 1.80, all at bet365. Olympiacos have scored three and conceded one in the league stage, and Sparta five and two.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos win | 1.53 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 4.33 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Sparta Praha win | 6.25 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | - |
We expect Olympiacos to edge it, though Sparta have scored in both of their league-stage games. The bet builder pairs González to have a shot on target with Gelson Martins and Onyemaechi to commit a foul each, at a combined 1.87.