Jagiellonia Białystok host Anderlecht at the Stadion Miejski on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, with a Europa League league-stage point at stake for two sides who have started slowly. Jagiellonia sit 17th of 36 on 3 points, while Anderlecht are 28th and still looking for their first, having lost both of their opening games.
Bookmakers make the visitors favourites despite that start, which gives the night an edge: the Belgian side have the stronger league record behind them, but the Polish side have the points on the board and the home crowd.
Jagiellonia have taken 3 points from two games in the Europa League table, and they scored plenty to get them. Last Thursday's 3-1 win over Ararat followed a 2-1 defeat at Olympiacos, and four goals in two games leaves them averaging 2.17 a game. They are also leaky: they keep a clean sheet in only 17% of games, and both teams have scored in 83% of their matches.
In the league the picture has been rougher. They lost 1-3 to Górnik Zabrze and 1-3 to Legia Warszawa in the weeks before the Ararat win, and on Sunday they went down 1-0 at Zagłębie Lubin. Only one of their last five has been a win. They also commit 16.5 fouls a game.
Anderlecht have lost both European games so far, 1-2 against Lyon and 1-0 at Dinamo Zagreb, so they have scored just once in two games. In Belgium they look much better: 3-0 against Zulte-Waregem and wins at Club Brugge and Mechelen in their other recent league games, with six wins in their last ten overall.
The Belgian side are the tighter outfit, conceding 0.88 a game with a clean sheet in 38% of games. They manage 5.5 shots on target a game against 5.17 for Jagiellonia, so the gap on the pitch is smaller than the 11 places in the table suggest.
Jagiellonia Białystok possible starting lineup:
Abramowicz; Conceição, Vital, Kobayashi, Wdowik; Romanczuk, Jozwiak; Szmyt, Klynge, Imaz; Sow
Anderlecht possible starting lineup:
Coosemans; Barry, Omobamidele, Pétrot, Reabciuk; Stroeykens, Aasgaard; Winkler, Ambros, Degreef; Cvetkovic
Bernardo Vital has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, with an average of 2.4, and the 1.29 at Midnite is on offer for a foul on Thursday.
Kajetan Szmyt has had a shot in four of his last five games and is 1.25 at bet365 to have one against Anderlecht.
Marten Winkler has had at least two shots in four of his last five games, averaging two a game, and is 1.44 at bet365 to do it again.
Bookmakers make Anderlecht the favourites at 2.25 with bet365, with Jagiellonia 3.1 and the draw 3.6. With both sides leaking goals, both teams to score is 1.62 and over 2.5 goals is 1.73 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia win | 3.10 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 3.60 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Anderlecht win | 2.25 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | - |
Our view is a tight match that could go either way. Jagiellonia's home games have been high-scoring and Anderlecht are strong at the back, so the visitors have the edge on quality, but the hosts score freely enough to stay in it. Both teams to score is 1.62 and over 2.5 goals is 1.73. A bet builder of Vital for a foul, Szmyt for a shot, Winkler for two shots and Léo Pétrot for a foul comes to 2.93.