Celje are yet to score in this season's Europa League. They host Salzburg at Stadion Z'dežele on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a league-stage game that finds the Slovenian side at the foot of the table. Two games, two defeats, five goals conceded and none scored: a first goal, never mind a first point, is the target in Celje.
Salzburg are 21st on three points, with a win at Levski Sofia and a 4-0 loss to AC Milan behind them. They have a long way to go in the Europa League table too, but the bookmakers still make them clear favourites in Slovenia.
Celje sit 35th of 36 with 0 points from 2 games. They lost 2-0 at Leverkusen and then 3-0 at home to Omonia last Thursday, and they have scored in neither. They have conceded 2.5 a game and average just 2.5 shots on target.
The wider run is grim as well. Celje have lost their last three, and the last time they won was a 2-0 home win over Ararat in Champions League qualifying. They went out of the qualifiers after a 2-1 home loss to Slovan in August.
Salzburg are 21st on 3 points from 2 games, with one goal scored and four conceded. After a 1-0 win at Levski Sofia came a 4-0 defeat by AC Milan, but they bounced back on Sunday with a 3-0 win over Altach in the Austrian Bundesliga. They have won seven of their last ten overall, including a 3-0 win over Sturm Graz in September, and drew 0-0 at Grazer AK on 10 October.
Their defensive numbers are good. Salzburg concede 1.17 a game in Europe, qualifying included, and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of those matches. They also average 5.5 shots on target and 1.5 goals a game.
Celje possible starting lineup:
Leban; Bejger, Zuzek, Tutyškinas; Zabukovnik, Tičić, Dukuly, Daniel; Avdyli, Seslar, Kramer
Salzburg possible starting lineup:
Zawieschitzky; Morgalla, Boma, Zabransky, Schmid; Mazurek, Barry, Kitano; Lindstrøm, Baidoo, Tabakovic
Zan Zuzek has committed at least one foul in all five of his recent games, with 6 in total, and midnite make 1+ fouls 1.40. His team-mate Artemijus Tutyškinas has also committed at least one foul in each of his last five, with 9 in total, and 1+ fouls is 1.30 at midnite. Put the two together and the bet builder pays 1.82. Zuzek is also 1.57 for a shot, which our model ranks second likeliest in the match.
We side with Salzburg, who are 1.67 with midnite to win in 90 minutes. Celje are 5.5 with bet365 and the draw is 4.2 with ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.67 at bet365, though Celje have not scored in the competition and Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games. Over 2.5 goals is also 1.67 at bet365, with over 1.5 at 1.20.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Celje to win | 5.50 (bet365) | n/a |
| Draw | 4.20 (ladbrokes) | n/a |
| Salzburg to win | 1.67 (midnite) | n/a |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | n/a |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | n/a |
We expect Salzburg to win, and Celje are still looking for a first goal of the league stage.