FC Augsburg host FC Bayern München at the WWK Arena on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 14:30 UK. Between them the two sides have scored 25 goals in four league games each, and Bayern have conceded only 2 of the 31 goals shared between the teams.
Augsburg sit 4th on 7 points from four games and have scored 11 times. Bayern are 2nd on 10 points, unbeaten, having scored 14 and conceded just 2. Augsburg's own games have been loud: every one has gone over 2.5 goals, which is the highest rate in the division.
Augsburg have won two, drawn one and lost one in the league, and their best work has come on the road. They won 4-1 at Frankfurt on 6 September (Frankfurt 1-4 Augsburg) and beat Schalke 3-0 at home on the opening weekend (Augsburg 3-0 Schalke). The 2-2 draw with Leverkusen (Augsburg 2-2 Leverkusen) kept the run going, but they lost 3-2 at Bremen last time out (Bremen 3-2 Augsburg).
They are scoring freely: 2.75 goals per game is the 3rd most in the league and they average 7.25 shots on target, the 2nd most. Both teams have scored in 75% of their games, the 5th highest rate. They are also the cleanest side in the division, averaging 7 fouls a game, the fewest of all 18 teams.
Bayern have not lost this season. They beat Stuttgart 5-1, drew 0-0 at Schalke, won 2-1 at Elversberg and thrashed Union Berlin 7-0 last time out (Bayern 7-0 U Berlin). In between came a 5-0 Champions League win over Bodø / Glimt (Bayern 5-0 Bodø / Glimt). They score 3.5 goals a game, the most in the league, and concede 0.5, the fewest, having kept a clean sheet in half their league games.
The shot numbers explain the scoring. Bayern lead the division with 8.75 shots on target per game and 9.5 corners, also the most. Their 10 points have them 2nd in the Bundesliga table, one place and three points above Augsburg's neighbours in the chasing pack.
FC Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Dahmen; Brackelmann, Gouweleeuw, Matsima, Wolf; Massengo, Rieder, Behrens; Fellhauer, Claude-Maurice; Gregoritsch
FC Bayern München possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Saibari, Díaz; Kane
Michael Gregoritsch has had a shot on target in each of Augsburg's four league games, averaging two a game, and is 1.73 at bet365 to make it five. He has also had a shot in all four, averaging 2.3.
Michael Olise has had a shot on target in four straight games and averages 4.3 shots overall. Luis Díaz matches him on the on-target run, averaging 1.3 a game, and is 1.30 at bet365 for another. He has also been fouled-or-fouling in four straight, with at least one foul committed in each and 1.8 a game, priced 1.57 at Ladbrokes.
Calvin Brackelmann has made at least two tackles in all four Augsburg games, averaging three, and is 1.22 at bet365 to do it again. Fabian Rieder has made at least one tackle in each game too, at 2.5 per game, and has committed at least one foul in each of his last five.
We back Bayern to win, and Ladbrokes make them 1.20. Our model puts the chance at 74%, with the draw at 14% and an Augsburg win at 12%. Augsburg are 11 at bet365 and the draw is 8.5.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Augsburg win | 11.00 (bet365) | 12% |
| Draw | 8.50 (bet365) | 14% |
| Bayern win | 1.20 (Ladbrokes) | 74% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Coral) | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 83% |
We predict a 3-1 Bayern win. Our model expects Bayern to score 3.2 goals and Augsburg 1.3, and a goal at each end is more likely than not given the way Augsburg have been scoring. Bayern kept a clean sheet in half their league games, but Augsburg's attack gives them a fair chance of getting on the scoresheet.
The player markets carry the interest. If you want a Bayern leg, Olise and Díaz both have four-game runs of shots on target. Jonathan Tah has made a tackle in each of his last five and is 1.44. On the Augsburg side, Brackelmann's tackle run and Gregoritsch's shot-on-target streak lead the way. Both clubs have players on four-game runs across several stats, which is why the shots and tackles markets stand out here.