Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Predictions and Betting Tips

Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest at Villa Park on Saturday 12 September, 15:00 UK. It is 18th against 16th, one point against two, and between them the two sides have scored two Premier League goals in six games this season.

The model makes it close, and it makes it quiet. Full numbers are on our match centre.

How the teams arrive

Aston Villa have taken one point from three league games: 4-0 down at Brighton & Hove Albion, 0-1 at home to Arsenal, 0-0 at Hull City. They did win 3-2 at Club Brugge in the Champions League in midweek, the only time they have scored in our last-five window. The league numbers are stark: no goals for, 0.33 shots on target per game which is last of 20, and 2.67 corners per game which is 18th.

There is a version of the Aston Villa story that says the underlying numbers are running well ahead of the table, and it is worth checking rather than repeating. Our Premier League xG table has Aston Villa on 2.1 expected goals and 5.1 expected against from three games. That is an expected-goal difference of minus 3.1, third-worst in the division, and 0.69 expected goals per game, the lowest of all 20 clubs. Their 2.6 expected points against one actual point does say they have been a shade unlucky, but only a shade. The creation problem is real.

Nottingham Forest have two points from three: 0-1 at home to Leeds United, 2-2 at Liverpool, 0-0 at home to Tottenham Hotspur, plus a 0-2 Carabao Cup defeat to Leeds United. Two goals scored, one conceded per game which is sixth-best, and a clean sheet in a third of games. Their 4.0 expected points against two actual is a wider shortfall than Aston Villa's. Check team news before kick-off.

What the model says

The model makes Aston Villa 42.7% at 2.25, against an implied 42.3%. Nottingham Forest at 3.20 is 29.6% against an implied 29.7%. The draw takes 27.7%. On the result, model and market have almost nothing to argue about, and that is unusual.

The goals line is where they part. Under 2.5 goals is projected at 53.3% against a price implying 50.0%, a 3.3-point edge and the only meaningful disagreement on the fixture. Both teams to score No follows the same direction at 48.8% against an implied 46.7%. The projections read Aston Villa 1.41 goals from 14.04 shots and 4.55 on target, Nottingham Forest 1.13 from 10.97 shots and 3.93 on target. A combined 2.54 is why the model sits under the line.

Team Projections

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Betting angles

From the props feed this morning, built on predicted line-ups, so confirm the team sheet first.

Tyrone Mings 1+ shot is 2.20 with the model at 61.3%. That is the widest model-versus-price gap across the three fixtures we have covered today, and he has managed a shot in three of his last five, assuming he starts. Matty Cash 2+ tackles is 1.62 against a 63.1% projection, with a 2.14-tackle projection behind it, assuming he starts. For the visitors, Jair Cunha to be fouled at least once is 1.67 with the model at 63.2%, a line he has hit in four of his last five, assuming he starts.

This is a fouls fixture more than a goals one. Nottingham Forest average 15 fouls per game, second-most in the Premier League, and the projection has them at 12.08 here with 2.15 yellows. Referee Andy Madley carries one game in our season sample, averaging three yellows and 18 fouls. The fouls board holds the rest of the day's lines. Prices are the model's at the time of writing.

Statz Bet Builder

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Prediction

Aston Villa at 42.7%, 1.41 projected goals against 1.13, and the model's lean to under 2.5 gives Aston Villa 1-0 Nottingham Forest. A first Premier League goal of the season for the hosts, and not a great deal more than that. It is the model's read, not a promise.

The rest of Saturday's card is on the daily acca, and the running table behind the xG lines above is on the Premier League hub.

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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at the time of writing.