Chelsea vs Hull City Predictions and Betting Tips - Premier League

Chelsea host Hull City at Stamford Bridge on Saturday 12 September, kick-off 3pm UK, in the Premier League. It is the most lopsided projection on the whole of Saturday's league card: the Statz model gives Chelsea a 78.7% chance of winning, a higher figure than any other team in any Premier League fixture this weekend. The question the numbers pose is whether Hull City's unbeaten defensive record survives contact with the division's most productive attack so far.

Everything below is drawn from the Statz model and the live match centre for this fixture, which keeps refreshing through to kick-off. Three league games in, every rate stat here carries a small-sample caveat.

How the teams arrive

Chelsea's last five, newest first, reads W-L-W-W-W: a 6-3 Carabao Cup win over Leeds United on Wednesday, a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal, a 4-3 home win over Brighton & Hove Albion, a 2-0 cup win against Luton Town and a 3-2 win at Fulham. In the Premier League they have scored 2.67 goals per game, rank 1 of 20, and conceded 2.33, rank 17 of 20. Both teams have scored in all three of their league matches and all three have gone past 2.5 goals, both rank 1 of 20.

Hull City are the mirror image. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W newest first: a 1-0 Carabao Cup defeat at Sunderland, a 0-0 home draw with Aston Villa, a 1-0 win at Coventry City, a 1-1 cup draw at Stoke City and a 2-0 home win over Manchester United on the opening weekend. In three Premier League games they have conceded nothing at all, rank 1 of 20, with a 100% clean sheet rate, also rank 1. They have scored 1.00 goal per game, rank 14 of 20.

The model is alive to one caveat on that record. Hull City have kept those three clean sheets while facing 4.68 expected goals, and their opening-day win over Manchester United came with the visitors creating 2.19 xG to Hull City's 0.99. Chelsea, at the other end, have scored eight league goals from 5.78 xG. Both runs sit some way from the chances behind them.

The expected line-ups put Chelsea in a 3-4-2-1 with Emiliano Martínez in goal, Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix and Wesley Fofana across the back, and Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers behind João Pedro. Hull City are expected in a 5-4-1, Konstantinos Tzolakis behind a back five of Ryan Giles, Lewie Coyle, Nobel Mendy, John Egan and Semi Ajayi, with Oliver McBurnie alone up front. These are expected line-ups rather than confirmed team sheets, so check team news before kick-off.

Both clubs' current shape is ranked against the rest of the division on the Premier League power rankings.

What the model says

Statz projects a Chelsea win at 78.7%. bet365's 1.22 implies 77.0% once the margin is stripped out, so the model sits 1.7 points above the price: agreement rather than a disagreement worth acting on. Hull City at 11.0 imply 8.5% against a 7.6% projection, so the model is marginally against the away side as well. On the match result, the market has this one about right.

The goals markets are where the model leans. Over 2.5 goals projects at 70.6% against an implied 68.2% at 1.40, a gap of 2.4 points, and both teams to score sits at 52.5% against 50.0% implied at 1.91, a gap of 2.5. Neither is a large disagreement, but both point the same way.

The projections underneath are stark: 2.84 goals for Chelsea against 0.81 for Hull City, from 24.04 shots to 8.59 and 7.22 shots on target to 2.97. That shape is a home side camped in the final third and an away side projected for 15.83 tackles to Chelsea's 13.88. The model still expects Hull City to get something on the board more often than their clean-sheet run implies.

Team Projections

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Betting angles

The player-prop feed is live for this fixture and the value clusters in the contact markets rather than the goal markets. João Pedro to be fouled 2+ times was 1.83 at the time of writing against a 59.4% model projection, with 2.0 fouls drawn per game projected and returns of 6, 4, 1, 2 and 1 in his last five, assuming he starts. Chelsea's centre-forward running at a five-man defence is a sensible shape for that line.

On the Hull City side, John Egan to make 1+ tackle was 1.57 against a 69.9% projection, cleared in four of his last five, assuming he starts. Oliver McBurnie to register 1+ shot on target was 2.10 against a 52.8% projection, hit in three of five, assuming he starts. He is the only central attacking outlet in the expected Hull City XI, and the away side is projected for just 2.97 shots on target in total, so his line carries most of that load.

Referee Farai Hallam has taken three games this season, averaging 20.33 fouls and 2.67 yellow cards, which is a middling whistle rather than a card-heavy one and takes some of the shine off the booking angles. Our player fouls and cards hub has more on those markets, the full fixture numbers live on the head-to-head page, and the best of Saturday's slate lands in the daily acca.

Season numbers for every player named here are on the Premier League player stats page.

Prediction

The model's shape is a comfortable home win with Hull City still finding the net. Chelsea 3-1 Hull City fits a 2.84 to 0.81 goals projection with both teams to score edging above evens and Over 2.5 goals at 70.6%. That is the model's call rather than a promise: Hull City's shutout run has to end at some point, but three matches is a thin base for any read, in either direction.

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