Aston Villa host Brentford at Villa Park on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm, and the table has them well apart. Villa sit 16th with 4 points from 5 games, while Brentford are 4th on 9 points and unbeaten. The surprise is that our model has little to separate them.
Villa come into the weekend on the back of a 3-2 win at Spurs, and the Premier League table says that result was badly needed. Brentford beat Chelsea 3-0 on 18 September and have not lost in the league. Our model gives Villa a 38% chance of winning, Brentford 37% and the draw 25%, so the visitors' league position counts for less here than it might.
Villa's league record reads 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. That is a lean return in front of goal: they average 0.8 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the division, and 2.4 shots on target, the fewest of all 20 sides. The defence has leaked 1.8 a game, the 7th most. The league form is poor, yet the last week has been far better. Villa won 3-2 at Spurs and 3-1 at Coventry in the Carabao Cup, after a 3-2 win at Club Brugge in the Champions League. They lost 2-1 at home to Forest in between, and drew 0-0 at Hull before that.
Brentford have 2 wins and 3 draws from 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. They average 2 goals a game, the 3rd most, and concede 0.8, the 3rd fewest. Their last five league and cup games: a 3-0 home win over Chelsea, a 2-1 win at Reading in the cup, and draws at Bournemouth (2-2), at home to Sunderland (1-1) and at Leeds (1-1).
Brentford are also physical: 14.4 fouls a game is the 2nd most in the league. Villa's own shots on target numbers show where their problem lies, and the xG tables are the place to check whether it is bad finishing or a lack of chances.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Mings, Ruggeri; Kamara, Gomes; McGinn, BuendÃa, Manzambi; Jackson
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Kelleher; Kayode, Ajer, Schuster, Lewis-Potter; Janelt, Sangaré, Yarmolyuk; Anthony, Schade, Thiago
Vitaly Janelt has made three or more tackles in five straight games, averaging 3.4, the longest run of its kind in the Premier League, and he is 2.10 at bet365 to keep it going. Brentford's midfield is built around that work, and Janelt gets through plenty of it.
Keane Lewis-Potter has had a shot in each of the last five games (1.8 a game) and has also committed a foul and made a tackle in all five. The shot is 1.30 with Ladbrokes.
Boubacar Kamara is Villa's steadiest source of numbers, with a foul and a tackle in each of five straight games. He is 1.40 with Ladbrokes to foul again.
Tyrone Mings has made a tackle in each of his last four, averaging exactly 1 a game, and is 1.50 at bet365 to extend it.
Igor Thiago leads the Brentford attack and has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2.6.
The model has no clear favourite, with Villa fractionally ahead at 38% to Brentford's 37%, and the draw at 25%. The prices are just as level: Villa are 2.63 at bet365, Brentford 2.60 at bet365 and the draw 3.60 with Coral. The interest is in the player markets.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Villa win | 2.63 (bet365) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Coral) | 25% |
| Brentford win | 2.60 (bet365) | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 62% |
Both teams scoring is the call we like. We give it a 64% chance, and the model expects 1.6 goals for Villa and 1.58 for Brentford. Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games for each side this season, and both rank the 4th highest in the league on that measure.
Our prediction is Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford. That is the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Villa slightly more likely to win, and a draw is in play. A bet builder of Lewis-Potter to have a shot, Mings and Janelt to make tackles and Kamara to commit a foul comes to 3.18 combined, and each of the four has hit in all of his last five games. Referee Craig Pawson has taken charge of two games this season, averaging 4 yellow cards a game.