Parma host Udinese at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 17:30 UK. Both sit on 4 points from 8 games, with one win, one draw and six defeats apiece. Parma are 19th and Udinese 17th in a bottom-four meeting.
Parma's problem is at one end and Udinese's at the other. Parma have scored 5 goals all season, the fewest in Serie A, while Udinese have shipped 18, the 4th most in the division.
Parma have lost four of their last five league games. The one win in that run was a 2-1 home victory over Genoa on 20 September, and since then they have lost 3-0 at Inter, 3-0 at home to Torino and, most recently, 2-1 at Lazio on Saturday. They average 0.63 goals a game, the fewest in the league, and 3.5 shots on target, the 2nd fewest. At the back they concede 1.88 a game, the 7th most.
Udinese have lost their last five league games, and the latest was a 2-0 home loss to AC Milan on Sunday, after a 3-0 home defeat to Lecce the week before. They have scored 9 goals to Parma's 5, 1.13 a game.
Neither side has kept a clean sheet this season. Our projection is 1.06 goals for Parma and 1.12 for Udinese. Udinese's games have gone over 2.5 goals 63% of the time, the same figure as Parma's, which is the 9th highest in the league for each.
Udinese commit 11 fouls a game, the 10th most, and Parma's 10.25 is the 10th fewest. Udinese's card count of 1.75 a game is the 9th most in the division.
Parma possible starting lineup:
Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Diego Carlos, Valeri; Keita, Sierro, Bernabé; Britschgi, Touré, Romero
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Palma, Kabasele, Abankwah; Kamara, Miller, Karlström, Vojvoda; Zaniolo, Ekkelenkamp; Davis
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp has had at least one shot in all eight of Udinese's league games, averaging 2.6 a game, and is 1.14 at bet365 to make it nine.
Lennon Miller has committed a foul in six straight games, averaging 2.2 a game, and is 1.25 at Ladbrokes to extend it. He has also made a tackle in four in a row.
Diego Carlos has committed a foul in six straight games, at 1.35 with Ladbrokes, and made a tackle in four straight, at 1.10 at bet365.
El Bilal Touré has put a shot on target in four of his last five and averages 0.8 per game, at 1.73 with bet365. Alongside him, David Romero has hit the target in four of five too, at 1.33 with bet365.
We lean to Udinese, whom we make a 36% chance to win, at 2.70 with bet365. Parma are 2.75 with Midnite and the draw is 3.20 with Ladbrokes. Over 2.5 goals is 2.10 at bet365 and both teams to score is 1.83 at Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 2.75 (Midnite) | 33% |
| Draw | 3.20 (Ladbrokes) | 31% |
| Udinese win | 2.70 (bet365) | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Coral) | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (Midnite) | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 37% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 14%, though we make Udinese slightly likelier to win than Parma, 36% to 33%. A 0-0 is next at 12%.
In the player markets, Ekkelenkamp has a shot in eight straight games and Miller a foul in six, both at short prices, and a shot on target from Touré is 1.73 at bet365.
Prediction: Parma 1-1 Udinese