Everything you need before the Gameweek 3 Fantasy Premier League deadline (Friday 4 September, 18:30 UK time): Statz projected match points for both sides of every fixture, win, draw and win probabilities derived from them, and the round's headline picks.
The page leads with the calls that actually change a team: the captain pick on projected points, the best clean-sheet shout, the team to target and the team to avoid on total projected match points across the round, the side projected to score most, and the best defender, midfielder and forward by projected points. Double gameweeks are summed, so a team or player with two fixtures is ranked on both.
Every player projection is modelled from the fixture: expected goals and assists, clean-sheet probability, saves, defensive contributions and bonus tendencies, scored under the official FPL rules. Match-level win, draw and win percentages come from the same model, converted from each side's projected match points.
| Kick-off (UK) | Fixture | Projected score | Win / draw / win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 4 Sep, 20:00 | Ipswich Town v Liverpool | 1.3-2.2 | 21% / 21% / 58% |
| Sat 5 Sep, 12:30 | Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth | 1.8-1.5 | 44% / 24% / 32% |
| Sat 5 Sep, 15:00 | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.3-1.2 | 40% / 28% / 32% |
| Sat 5 Sep, 15:00 | Manchester City v Coventry City | 2.7-0.7 | 80% / 13% / 7% |
| Sat 5 Sep, 15:00 | Fulham v Crystal Palace | 1.4-1.2 | 40% / 27% / 33% |
| Sat 5 Sep, 15:00 | Brighton & Hove Albion v Leeds United | 1.8-1.1 | 52% / 25% / 23% |
| Sat 5 Sep, 15:00 | Brentford v Sunderland | 1.9-1.0 | 58% / 23% / 19% |
| Sat 5 Sep, 17:30 | Hull City v Aston Villa | 1.1-1.8 | 22% / 24% / 54% |
| Sun 6 Sep, 14:00 | Everton v Manchester United | 1.3-1.7 | 29% / 25% / 46% |
| Sun 6 Sep, 16:30 | Arsenal v Chelsea | 1.8-0.9 | 59% / 24% / 17% |
The deadline is shown at the top of this page in your local time, with a live countdown. It is always 90 minutes before the first kick-off of the gameweek, and all transfers, captaincy and chip decisions must be confirmed before it passes.
The Statz captain pick is the player with the highest projected points for the round, shown at the top of this page. Projections assume the player starts, so check team news before committing - and remember a double gameweek player is ranked on both of his fixtures combined.
They are match odds derived from our own projections, not a bookmaker's. Each side's projected match points imply a probability of winning and drawing, and the coloured bar under each fixture shows the split - a quick read on which defences are worth backing for a clean sheet.
By total projected match points across the gameweek, summing both fixtures for any team with a double gameweek. The team to avoid is the same measure at the other end - the side our model expects to get least out of the round.
Projections publish inside a rolling window close to each deadline, because they depend on fixtures, prices and expected lineups. Far-future gameweek pages show the fixtures but say so plainly rather than showing placeholder numbers.
Explore the rest of the Statz Fantasy Premier League section: