No, Fenerbahçe have taken 38 points over their last 20 Super Lig games, within 0.47 of the 38.47 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Fenerbahçe create 2.13 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 42.50 in all, and have scored 48 goals from those chances, 5.50 more than that xG would expect.
Fenerbahçe allow 1.08 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 21.63 in all, and have conceded 23 goals from those chances, 1.37 more than that xGA would expect.
Kerem Aktürkoğlu has the most expected goals (xG) for Fenerbahçe over their last 20 Super Lig games, 5.67 xG in 18 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Talisca is next with 5.66 xG.
Fenerbahçe's results and their chances agree, within 0.5 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 42.50 | 48 | +5.50 | 21.63 | 23 | -1.37 | 38.47 | 38 | -0.47 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 24.81 | 28 | +3.19 | 9.02 | 9 | +0.02 | 21.31 | 20 | -1.31 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 12.68 | 15 | +2.32 | 5.04 | 2 | +3.04 | 9.63 | 10 | +0.37 |
| Home | 11 | 26.60 | 33 | +6.40 | 11.37 | 14 | -2.63 | 22.47 | 24 | +1.53 |
| Away | 9 | 15.90 | 15 | -0.90 | 10.26 | 9 | +1.26 | 16.00 | 14 | -2.00 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Super Lig | Alanyaspor (H) | 3-0 | 4.44 | 0.93 | 2.69 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Super Lig | Rizespor (A) | 0-3 | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.09 | 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | Super Lig | Eyüpspor (H) | 8-0 | 4.68 | 0.71 | 2.73 | 3 | W |
| 14 Sep | Super Lig | Gaziantep (A) | 0-0 | 1.60 | 0.64 | 2.07 | 1 | W |
| 5 Sep | Super Lig | Beşiktaş (H) | 1-2 | 0.73 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Super Lig | Samsunspor (A) | 0-2 | 1.82 | 0.63 | 2.20 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | Super Lig | Konyaspor (H) | 4-2 | 2.49 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | Super Lig | Gençler (A) | 2-1 | 3.11 | 0.67 | 2.64 | 0 | W |
| 17 May | Super Lig | Eyüpspor (H) | 3-3 | 1.69 | 0.34 | 2.36 | 1 | W |
| 9 May | Super Lig | Konyaspor (A) | 0-3 | 3.02 | 0.74 | 2.58 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Super Lig | Başakşehir (H) | 3-1 | 3.05 | 1.00 | 2.46 | 3 | W |
| 26 Apr | Super Lig | Galatasaray (A) | 3-0 | 1.02 | 3.12 | 0.39 | 0 | L |
| 17 Apr | Super Lig | Rizespor (H) | 2-2 | 2.48 | 0.75 | 2.41 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | Super Lig | Kayserispor (A) | 0-4 | 1.61 | 0.50 | 2.18 | 3 | W |
| 5 Apr | Super Lig | Beşiktaş (H) | 1-0 | 2.11 | 1.25 | 1.92 | 3 | W |
| 17 Mar | Super Lig | Gaziantep (H) | 4-1 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.62 | 3 | W |
| 13 Mar | Super Lig | Fatih Karagümrük (A) | 2-0 | 0.83 | 1.43 | 0.92 | 0 | L |
| 8 Mar | Super Lig | Samsunspor (H) | 3-2 | 1.22 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 3 | L |
| 1 Mar | Super Lig | Antalyaspor (A) | 2-2 | 1.66 | 0.86 | 1.93 | 1 | W |
| 23 Feb | Super Lig | Kasımpaşa (H) | 1-1 | 1.66 | 0.77 | 2.00 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi | attacker | 8 | 414 | 3.71 | 7 | +3.29 | 0.81 |
| Dorgeles Nene | attacker | 13 | 621 | 2.70 | 5 | +2.30 | 0.39 |
| Marco Asensio | midfielder | 10 | 619 | 1.39 | 3 | +1.61 | 0.20 |
| Talisca | attacker | 9 | 677 | 5.66 | 7 | +1.34 | 0.75 |
| N'Golo Kanté | midfielder | 20 | 1600 | 0.71 | 2 | +1.29 | 0.04 |
| Fred | midfielder | 10 | 448 | 1.80 | 3 | +1.20 | 0.36 |
| İrfan Can Kahveci | attacker | 7 | 407 | 0.81 | 2 | +1.19 | 0.18 |
| Mattéo Guendouzi | midfielder | 18 | 1552 | 1.36 | 2 | +0.64 | 0.08 |
| Sidiki Chérif | attacker | 10 | 610 | 1.66 | 2 | +0.34 | 0.24 |
| Milan Škriniar | defender | 12 | 1016 | 0.69 | 1 | +0.31 | 0.06 |
| Oğuz Aydın | attacker | 15 | 541 | 1.87 | 2 | +0.13 | 0.31 |
| Archie Brown | defender | 17 | 1168 | 1.41 | 1 | -0.41 | 0.11 |
| Kerem Aktürkoğlu | attacker | 18 | 1123 | 5.67 | 5 | -0.67 | 0.45 |
| Mason Greenwood | attacker | 8 | 597 | 4.89 | 4 | -0.89 | 0.74 |
| Romelu Lukaku | attacker | 7 | 246 | 2.07 | 1 | -1.07 | 0.76 |
| İsmail Yüksek | midfielder | 17 | 730 | 1.60 | 0 | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| Anthony Musaba | attacker | 12 | 595 | 2.12 | 0 | -2.12 | 0.32 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 9.1 | 8 | 14.4 | 9 | 8.4 | 12 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 9 | 9 | 13.8 | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 11.2 | 16 | 11.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 4 | Galatasaray | 8 | 17.1 | 17 | 7.9 | 11 | 16.2 | 19 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 6.4 | 5 | 10.2 | 11 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 9.7 | 12 | 10.6 | 9 | 10.6 | 13 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Amed SK | 8 | 13.8 | 18 | 7.1 | 9 | 14.8 | 17 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 8 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Gençlerbirliği | 8 | 8.8 | 7 | 16.8 | 16 | 7 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 12.8 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Gaziantep F.K. | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.7 | 8 | +0.3 |
| 12 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 20.1 | 22 | 7.9 | 6 | 16.4 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 8 | 10.1 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | 11.1 | 10 | -1.1 |
| 14 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 7 | 11.1 | 10 | 10.3 | 11 | 10.5 | 8 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 8 | 15.7 | 17 | 14.6 | 16 | 11.8 | 9 | -2.8 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 6.5 | 2 | 14.8 | 22 | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| 17 | Konyaspor | 8 | 8.1 | 4 | 9.8 | 9 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Samsunspor | 8 | 10.7 | 7 | 10.9 | 19 | 10.4 | 4 | -6.4 |