Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 19 October 2026, after the last game
Samsunspor have the biggest shortfall in the Super Lig: 4 points from chances worth 10.5 xPts, a gap of 6.5. At the other end, Alanyaspor have taken 12 points from an xPts figure of 8.3, 3.7 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 4 | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | +4 | 8.7 | -4.7 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| 2 | Amed SK | 5 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | +11 | 6.1 | +4.9 | 15 | 10.3 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | +9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 |
| 4 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 5 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 16 | 12.4 | +3.6 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Göztepe | 3 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | -3 | 3.9 | -6.9 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 |
| 8 | Kasımpaşa | 4 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 | +10 | 3.3 | +6.7 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 |
| 10 | Samsunspor | 4 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 13 | 5.2 | +7.8 | -9 | 1.0 | -10.0 | 1 | 5.9 | -4.9 |
| 11 | Kocaelispor | 4 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 | +4 | 0.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 3 | 0 | 4.6 | -4.6 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | -6 | 1.5 | -7.5 | 0 | 5.1 | -5.1 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | -1 | -3.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 4 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 4 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | -6 | -1.7 | -4.3 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| 16 | Erzurumspor FK | 4 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 4.5 | +4.5 |
| 17 | Gaziantep F.K. | 4 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -1.8 | -2.2 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 |
| 18 | Alanyaspor | 3 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | +1 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Rizespor | 5 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | +3 | -1.6 | +4.6 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 3 | Galatasaray | 4 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +2 | 0.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 4 | Göztepe | 5 | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 | 9 | 10.8 | -1.8 | +4 | -2.7 | +6.7 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 5 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 2.3 | +2.7 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 |
| 6 | Konyaspor | 4 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 |
| 7 | Alanyaspor | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.2 | -2 | -4.9 | +2.9 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
| 8 | Samsunspor | 4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 9 | Gaziantep F.K. | 4 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | +0 | -2.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Amed SK | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | -2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 11 | Kasımpaşa | 4 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | +0 | -2.1 | +2.1 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 12 | Çorum FK | 4 | 12 | 4.3 | +7.7 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | +3 | -3.7 | +6.7 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 |
| 13 | Erzurumspor FK | 4 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -6 | -2.3 | -3.7 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 |
| 14 | Trabzonspor | 4 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | +1 | -3.2 | +4.2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 15 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 3 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | -6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 |
| 16 | Kocaelispor | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | -3 | -5.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 17 | Eyüpspor | 4 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 14 | 8.5 | +5.5 | -14 | -6.6 | -7.4 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | Gençlerbirliği | 3 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | -8 | -4.5 | -3.5 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beşiktaş | 5 | 15 | 10.7 | +4.3 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | +8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 15 | 12.7 | +2.3 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | +13 | 7.7 | +5.3 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Göztepe | 5 | 12 | 12.3 | -0.3 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | +3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 8 | 9.6 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Amed SK | 5 | 13 | 8.7 | +4.3 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | +7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 | Çorum FK | 5 | 14 | 7.5 | +6.5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | +10 | 3.0 | +7.0 | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 |
| 6 | Galatasaray | 5 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 |
| 7 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 5 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Samsunspor | 5 | 2 | 6.6 | -4.6 | 14 | 6.0 | +8.0 | -12 | 0.6 | -12.6 | 0 | 7.1 | -7.1 |
| 9 | Trabzonspor | 5 | 13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 | +10 | 0.2 | +9.8 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 5 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | +1 | -1.3 | +2.3 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 12 | Kasımpaşa | 5 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | +2 | -1.5 | +3.5 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 10.5 | -4.5 | -1 | -3.6 | +2.6 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 14 | Rizespor | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Kocaelispor | 5 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 9.0 | -4.0 | +0 | -2.6 | +2.6 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 16 | Gaziantep F.K. | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | -4 | -4.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Gençlerbirliği | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 14 | 11.0 | +3.0 | -11 | -5.5 | -5.5 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 5 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | 19 | 11.7 | +7.3 | -19 | -7.8 | -11.2 | 0 | 3.5 | -3.5 |
Çorum FK are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 18 goals from chances worth 10.0 xG, a gap of 8.0. Trabzonspor are next on 4.8.
Eyüpspor are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 2 goals from chances worth 6.5 xG, a shortfall of 4.5. Konyaspor are next on 4.1.
Alanyaspor are the luckiest side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 12 points from performances worth 8.4 xPts, 3.6 more than their chances deserved. Kocaelispor are next on 3.5.
Samsunspor are the unluckiest side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 4 points from performances worth 10.4 xPts, 6.4 short of what they deserved. Konyaspor are next on 4.7.
Fenerbahçe would be top of the Super Lig in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.4 xPts from 20.1 xG created and 7.9 conceded across eight matches. Galatasaray are next on 16.2.
Fenerbahçe have created the most xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 20.1 from eight matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Galatasaray are next on 17.1.
Erzurumspor FK have created the least xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 6.4 from eight matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Eyüpspor are next on 6.5.
Gençlerbirliği have conceded the most xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 16.8 from eight matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Eyüpspor are next on 14.8.
Beşiktaş have conceded the least xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 5.0 from seven matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Amed SK are next on 7.1.
Super Lig teams have averaged 1.41 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 70 matches played, and have scored 1.45 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.31 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Super Lig teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.68 a game against 1.15 away, a home advantage of +0.53, against +0.35 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 22 | 20.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | +16 | 12.2 | +3.8 | 16 | 16.4 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 17 | 17.1 | -0.1 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | +6 | 9.2 | -3.2 | 19 | 16.1 | +2.9 |
| 3 | Amed SK | 8 | 18 | 13.8 | +4.2 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | +9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 17 | 14.8 | +2.2 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | +8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 8 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 | 12 | 11.9 | +0.1 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Göztepe | 8 | 17 | 15.7 | +1.3 | 16 | 14.6 | +1.4 | +1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 11.8 | -2.8 |
| 7 | Çorum FK | 8 | 18 | 10.0 | +8.0 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 | +5 | -0.9 | +5.9 | 13 | 11.5 | +1.5 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 8 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Samsunspor | 8 | 7 | 10.7 | -3.7 | 19 | 10.8 | +8.2 | -12 | -0.1 | -11.9 | 4 | 10.5 | -6.5 |
| 10 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | 9 | 10.6 | -1.6 | +3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 |
| 11 | Konyaspor | 8 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | -5 | -1.7 | -3.3 | 5 | 9.7 | -4.7 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 16 | 11.2 | +4.8 | 5 | 11.1 | -6.1 | +11 | 0.1 | +10.9 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
| 13 | Gaziantep F.K. | 8 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 12 | 13.1 | -1.1 | -4 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 13.8 | -5.8 | +1 | -4.8 | +5.8 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 |
| 15 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | -6 | -3.8 | -2.2 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 |
| 16 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 14.4 | -5.4 | -1 | -5.4 | +4.4 | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 |
| 17 | Gençlerbirliği | 8 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 16 | 16.8 | -0.8 | -9 | -8.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | 22 | 14.8 | +7.2 | -20 | -8.3 | -11.7 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 |