Kayserispor have the biggest shortfall in the Super Lig: 30 points from chances worth 38.0 xPts, a gap of 8.0. At the other end, Trabzonspor have taken 69 points from an xPts figure of 53.6, 15.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 17 | 46 | 41.8 | +4.2 | 14 | 13.8 | +0.2 | +32 | 28.0 | +4.0 | 43 | 37.6 | +5.4 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 17 | 40 | 38.6 | +1.4 | 19 | 14.0 | +5.0 | +21 | 24.6 | -3.6 | 39 | 37.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 17 | 30 | 32.4 | -2.4 | 20 | 15.0 | +5.0 | +10 | 17.4 | -7.4 | 31 | 34.6 | -3.6 |
| 4 | Göztepe | 17 | 24 | 26.7 | -2.7 | 14 | 15.6 | -1.6 | +10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | 31 | 30.6 | +0.4 |
| 5 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 17 | 33 | 30.6 | +2.4 | 17 | 20.6 | -3.6 | +16 | 10.0 | +6.0 | 30 | 30.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 17 | 15 | 20.8 | -5.8 | 13 | 13.7 | -0.7 | +2 | 7.1 | -5.1 | 23 | 28.3 | -5.3 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 17 | 22 | 24.6 | -2.6 | 17 | 17.7 | -0.7 | +5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 28 | 28.3 | -0.3 |
| 8 | Trabzonspor | 17 | 29 | 25.1 | +3.9 | 18 | 18.0 | +0.0 | +11 | 7.1 | +3.9 | 33 | 27.8 | +5.2 |
| 9 | Rizespor | 17 | 24 | 25.9 | -1.9 | 23 | 20.7 | +2.3 | +1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | 27 | 27.1 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 17 | 21 | 25.8 | -4.8 | 19 | 23.1 | -4.1 | +2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 24 | 25.7 | -1.7 |
| 11 | Kasımpaşa | 17 | 15 | 19.6 | -4.6 | 19 | 17.2 | +1.8 | -4 | 2.4 | -6.4 | 21 | 25.1 | -4.1 |
| 12 | Gaziantep F.K. | 17 | 22 | 23.4 | -1.4 | 27 | 22.1 | +4.9 | -5 | 1.3 | -6.3 | 20 | 25.1 | -5.1 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 17 | 23 | 21.2 | +1.8 | 17 | 19.8 | -2.8 | +6 | 1.3 | +4.7 | 23 | 24.6 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Kayserispor | 17 | 15 | 21.2 | -6.2 | 32 | 23.0 | +9.0 | -17 | -1.8 | -15.2 | 19 | 22.3 | -3.3 |
| 15 | Fatih Karagümrük | 17 | 18 | 19.6 | -1.6 | 23 | 22.6 | +0.4 | -5 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 21 | 22.3 | -1.3 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 17 | 19 | 20.3 | -1.3 | 21 | 23.3 | -2.3 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 19 | 21.5 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Gençlerbirliği | 17 | 24 | 21.0 | +3.0 | 24 | 24.5 | -0.5 | +0 | -3.5 | +3.5 | 25 | 21.3 | +3.7 |
| 18 | Antalyaspor | 17 | 22 | 16.5 | +5.5 | 33 | 22.8 | +10.2 | -11 | -6.3 | -4.7 | 19 | 19.2 | -0.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 17 | 37 | 27.0 | +10.0 | 18 | 18.4 | -0.4 | +19 | 8.6 | +10.4 | 35 | 28.4 | +6.6 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 17 | 29 | 28.6 | +0.4 | 20 | 22.7 | -2.7 | +9 | 5.9 | +3.1 | 29 | 27.2 | +1.8 |
| 3 | Galatasaray | 17 | 31 | 25.6 | +5.4 | 16 | 18.7 | -2.7 | +15 | 6.9 | +8.1 | 34 | 26.9 | +7.1 |
| 4 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 17 | 25 | 25.7 | -0.7 | 18 | 21.5 | -3.5 | +7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | 27 | 26.0 | +1.0 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 17 | 32 | 26.9 | +5.1 | 21 | 23.8 | -2.8 | +11 | 3.1 | +7.9 | 36 | 25.8 | +10.2 |
| 6 | Göztepe | 17 | 18 | 22.7 | -4.7 | 18 | 21.9 | -3.9 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 24 | 24.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 17 | 24 | 22.3 | +1.7 | 28 | 25.2 | +2.8 | -4 | -2.9 | -1.1 | 23 | 22.1 | +0.9 |
| 8 | Konyaspor | 17 | 22 | 20.4 | +1.6 | 31 | 27.0 | +4.0 | -9 | -6.6 | -2.4 | 16 | 19.2 | -3.2 |
| 9 | Rizespor | 17 | 22 | 18.2 | +3.8 | 29 | 25.1 | +3.9 | -7 | -6.9 | -0.1 | 14 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 17 | 18 | 13.9 | +4.1 | 24 | 22.8 | +1.2 | -6 | -8.9 | +2.9 | 14 | 18.2 | -4.2 |
| 11 | Gaziantep F.K. | 17 | 21 | 18.6 | +2.4 | 31 | 28.3 | +2.7 | -10 | -9.7 | -0.3 | 17 | 17.1 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Kayserispor | 17 | 12 | 16.7 | -4.7 | 30 | 30.2 | -0.2 | -18 | -13.5 | -4.5 | 11 | 15.8 | -4.8 |
| 13 | Kocaelispor | 17 | 11 | 12.5 | -1.5 | 25 | 24.2 | +0.8 | -14 | -11.7 | -2.3 | 14 | 15.2 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Kasımpaşa | 17 | 18 | 13.8 | +4.2 | 30 | 27.1 | +2.9 | -12 | -13.3 | +1.3 | 14 | 14.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 17 | 14 | 15.6 | -1.6 | 27 | 28.9 | -1.9 | -13 | -13.3 | +0.3 | 14 | 14.7 | -0.7 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği | 17 | 12 | 14.6 | -2.6 | 23 | 29.4 | -6.4 | -11 | -14.8 | +3.8 | 9 | 14.7 | -5.7 |
| 17 | Fatih Karagümrük | 17 | 13 | 13.6 | -0.6 | 31 | 28.5 | +2.5 | -18 | -14.9 | -3.1 | 9 | 14.6 | -5.6 |
| 18 | Antalyaspor | 17 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 | 22 | 31.2 | -9.2 | -11 | -20.5 | +9.5 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 5 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 3.9 | +4.1 | +2 | 7.4 | -5.4 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | +2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 |
| 3 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 5 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 5 | 6 | 10.4 | -4.4 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | +0 | 3.7 | -3.7 | 5 | 9.2 | -4.2 |
| 5 | Gençlerbirliği | 5 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | +3 | 0.7 | +2.3 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | -3 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Göztepe | 5 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 | -5 | -0.8 | -4.2 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 9 | Kocaelispor | 5 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -3 | 0.0 | -3.0 | 2 | 6.4 | -4.4 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 5 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | +2 | -0.9 | +2.9 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 |
| 11 | Kayserispor | 5 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 12 | Alanyaspor | 5 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 13 | Trabzonspor | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Gaziantep F.K. | 5 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | -4 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 5 | 13 | 4.8 | +8.2 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | +8 | -2.2 | +10.2 | 11 | 5.3 | +5.7 |
| 16 | Samsunspor | 5 | 12 | 6.3 | +5.7 | 7 | 9.9 | -2.9 | +5 | -3.6 | +8.6 | 12 | 5.3 | +6.7 |
| 17 | Antalyaspor | 5 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | -5 | -3.9 | -1.1 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 18 | Konyaspor | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -4.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
Fenerbahçe overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, with 77 goals from chances worth 65.6 xG, a gap of 11.4. Galatasaray were next on 9.6.
Kayserispor underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, with 27 goals from chances worth 37.9 xG, a shortfall of 10.9. Göztepe were next on 7.4.
Trabzonspor were the luckiest side in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, with 69 points from performances worth 53.6 xPts, 15.4 more than their chances deserved. Galatasaray were next on 12.4.
Kayserispor were the unluckiest side in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, with 30 points from performances worth 38.0 xPts, 8.0 short of what they deserved. Fatih Karagümrük were next on 6.9.
Fenerbahçe would be top of the Super Lig in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 66.0 xPts from 65.6 xG created and 32.4 conceded across 34 matches. Galatasaray were next on 64.6.
Galatasaray created the most xG in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, 67.4 from 34 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Fenerbahçe were next on 65.6.
Antalyaspor created the least xG in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, 27.2 from 34 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Fatih Karagümrük were next on 33.2.
Antalyaspor conceded the most xG in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, 54.0 from 34 matches, 1.6 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Gençlerbirliği were next on 53.9.
Fenerbahçe conceded the least xG in the Super Lig in 2025/2026, 32.4 from 34 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Galatasaray were next on 32.5.
Super Lig teams averaged 1.31 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 306 matches played, and scored 1.33 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.43 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Super Lig teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.49 a game against 1.14 away, a home advantage of +0.35, against +0.37 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 77 | 65.6 | +11.4 | 37 | 32.4 | +4.6 | +40 | 33.2 | +6.8 | 74 | 66.0 | +8.0 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 34 | 77 | 67.4 | +9.6 | 30 | 32.5 | -2.5 | +47 | 34.8 | +12.2 | 77 | 64.6 | +12.4 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 59 | 61.0 | -2.0 | 40 | 37.7 | +2.3 | +19 | 23.3 | -4.3 | 60 | 61.8 | -1.8 |
| 4 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 34 | 58 | 56.4 | +1.6 | 35 | 42.1 | -7.1 | +23 | 14.2 | +8.8 | 57 | 56.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Göztepe | 34 | 42 | 49.4 | -7.4 | 32 | 37.5 | -5.5 | +10 | 12.0 | -2.0 | 55 | 55.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 61 | 52.0 | +9.0 | 39 | 41.8 | -2.8 | +22 | 10.2 | +11.8 | 69 | 53.6 | +15.4 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 46 | 46.9 | -0.9 | 45 | 42.9 | +2.1 | +1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 51 | 50.4 | +0.6 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 34 | 46 | 44.1 | +1.9 | 52 | 45.8 | +6.2 | -6 | -1.7 | -4.3 | 41 | 46.1 | -5.1 |
| 9 | Konyaspor | 34 | 43 | 46.2 | -3.2 | 50 | 50.1 | -0.1 | -7 | -3.9 | -3.1 | 40 | 44.9 | -4.9 |
| 10 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 26 | 33.3 | -7.3 | 38 | 37.9 | +0.1 | -12 | -4.6 | -7.4 | 37 | 43.5 | -6.5 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 41 | 35.1 | +5.9 | 41 | 42.7 | -1.7 | +0 | -7.6 | +7.6 | 37 | 42.7 | -5.7 |
| 12 | Gaziantep F.K. | 34 | 43 | 42.0 | +1.0 | 58 | 50.4 | +7.6 | -15 | -8.4 | -6.6 | 37 | 42.1 | -5.1 |
| 13 | Kasımpaşa | 34 | 33 | 33.5 | -0.5 | 49 | 44.3 | +4.7 | -16 | -10.9 | -5.1 | 35 | 39.9 | -4.9 |
| 14 | Kayserispor | 34 | 27 | 37.9 | -10.9 | 62 | 53.2 | +8.8 | -35 | -15.3 | -19.7 | 30 | 38.0 | -8.0 |
| 15 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 31 | 33.2 | -2.2 | 54 | 51.0 | +3.0 | -23 | -17.9 | -5.1 | 30 | 36.9 | -6.9 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 33 | 35.9 | -2.9 | 48 | 52.2 | -4.2 | -15 | -16.4 | +1.4 | 33 | 36.2 | -3.2 |
| 17 | Gençlerbirliği | 34 | 36 | 35.6 | +0.4 | 47 | 53.9 | -6.9 | -11 | -18.3 | +7.3 | 34 | 36.0 | -2.0 |
| 18 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 33 | 27.2 | +5.8 | 55 | 54.0 | +1.0 | -22 | -26.8 | +4.8 | 32 | 30.3 | +1.7 |