Adana Demirspor have the biggest shortfall in the Super Lig: 14 points from chances worth 27.1 xPts, a gap of 13.1. At the other end, Galatasaray have taken 95 points from an xPts figure of 70.4, 24.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 18 | 46 | 43.4 | +2.6 | 15 | 15.2 | -0.2 | +31 | 28.2 | +2.8 | 48 | 39.3 | +8.7 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 18 | 42 | 40.7 | +1.3 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 | +24 | 25.6 | -1.6 | 44 | 38.5 | +5.5 |
| 3 | Göztepe | 18 | 36 | 38.3 | -2.3 | 16 | 18.5 | -2.5 | +20 | 19.8 | +0.2 | 36 | 36.5 | -0.5 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 18 | 34 | 36.1 | -2.1 | 22 | 18.7 | +3.3 | +12 | 17.3 | -5.3 | 35 | 34.6 | +0.4 |
| 5 | Rizespor | 18 | 33 | 33.9 | -0.9 | 25 | 17.3 | +7.7 | +8 | 16.6 | -8.6 | 31 | 33.8 | -2.8 |
| 6 | Samsunspor | 18 | 32 | 25.9 | +6.1 | 21 | 14.1 | +6.9 | +11 | 11.8 | -0.8 | 35 | 31.7 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 18 | 40 | 33.5 | +6.5 | 22 | 24.2 | -2.2 | +18 | 9.3 | +8.7 | 35 | 30.4 | +4.6 |
| 8 | Alanyaspor | 18 | 26 | 30.3 | -4.3 | 21 | 20.2 | +0.8 | +5 | 10.1 | -5.1 | 29 | 30.1 | -1.1 |
| 9 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 18 | 34 | 32.7 | +1.3 | 23 | 22.9 | +0.1 | +11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | 31 | 30.1 | +0.9 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 18 | 26 | 27.1 | -1.1 | 19 | 20.6 | -1.6 | +7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 32 | 29.1 | +2.9 |
| 11 | Kasımpaşa | 18 | 31 | 31.2 | -0.2 | 33 | 26.5 | +6.5 | -2 | 4.6 | -6.6 | 22 | 28.0 | -6.0 |
| 12 | Kayserispor | 18 | 28 | 27.5 | +0.5 | 26 | 24.5 | +1.5 | +2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 18 | 15 | 19.7 | -4.7 | 19 | 20.8 | -1.8 | -4 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 20 | 24.3 | -4.3 |
| 14 | Gaziantep F.K. | 18 | 24 | 24.1 | -0.1 | 14 | 25.3 | -11.3 | +10 | -1.2 | +11.2 | 34 | 24.2 | +9.8 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 17 | 32 | 24.2 | +7.8 | 22 | 23.5 | -1.5 | +10 | 0.7 | +9.3 | 32 | 23.9 | +8.1 |
| 16 | Antalyaspor | 18 | 23 | 19.4 | +3.6 | 22 | 22.9 | -0.9 | +1 | -3.5 | +4.5 | 34 | 22.7 | +11.3 |
| 17 | Sivasspor | 18 | 29 | 20.9 | +8.1 | 22 | 26.7 | -4.7 | +7 | -5.8 | +12.8 | 27 | 21.2 | +5.8 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 18 | 24 | 21.1 | +2.9 | 31 | 33.9 | -2.9 | -7 | -12.8 | +5.8 | 17 | 18.1 | -1.1 |
| 19 | Adana Demirspor | 18 | 14 | 19.3 | -5.3 | 42 | 32.2 | +9.8 | -28 | -12.9 | -15.1 | 6 | 17.4 | -11.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 17 | 47 | 37.0 | +10.0 | 20 | 18.7 | +1.3 | +27 | 18.3 | +8.7 | 39 | 34.0 | +5.0 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 18 | 45 | 35.3 | +9.7 | 16 | 24.3 | -8.3 | +29 | 11.1 | +17.9 | 47 | 31.0 | +16.0 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 18 | 25 | 28.4 | -3.4 | 14 | 18.2 | -4.2 | +11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | 27 | 31.0 | -4.0 |
| 4 | Kasımpaşa | 18 | 31 | 25.6 | +5.4 | 30 | 27.7 | +2.3 | +1 | -2.1 | +3.1 | 25 | 24.3 | +0.7 |
| 5 | Göztepe | 18 | 23 | 22.7 | +0.3 | 34 | 24.4 | +9.6 | -11 | -1.7 | -9.3 | 14 | 23.3 | -9.3 |
| 6 | Samsunspor | 18 | 23 | 23.0 | +0.0 | 20 | 26.8 | -6.8 | +3 | -3.8 | +6.8 | 29 | 22.7 | +6.3 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 18 | 18 | 20.2 | -2.2 | 23 | 23.7 | -0.7 | -5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | 16 | 22.2 | -6.2 |
| 8 | Bodrum FK | 18 | 11 | 20.7 | -9.7 | 24 | 26.0 | -2.0 | -13 | -5.3 | -7.7 | 17 | 21.6 | -4.6 |
| 9 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 18 | 26 | 23.9 | +2.1 | 33 | 28.1 | +4.9 | -7 | -4.2 | -2.8 | 23 | 21.5 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Eyüpspor | 18 | 19 | 23.9 | -4.9 | 24 | 29.8 | -5.8 | -5 | -5.9 | +0.9 | 20 | 21.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Rizespor | 18 | 19 | 19.4 | -0.4 | 33 | 29.2 | +3.8 | -14 | -9.8 | -4.2 | 18 | 20.0 | -2.0 |
| 12 | Kayserispor | 18 | 17 | 22.1 | -5.1 | 31 | 31.8 | -0.8 | -14 | -9.7 | -4.3 | 16 | 19.7 | -3.7 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 18 | 17 | 18.4 | -1.4 | 29 | 26.8 | +2.2 | -12 | -8.4 | -3.6 | 16 | 19.2 | -3.2 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 18 | 19 | 18.3 | +0.7 | 31 | 29.0 | +2.0 | -12 | -10.6 | -1.4 | 14 | 18.6 | -4.6 |
| 15 | Antalyaspor | 18 | 14 | 16.6 | -2.6 | 40 | 31.1 | +8.9 | -26 | -14.5 | -11.5 | 10 | 16.5 | -6.5 |
| 16 | Gaziantep F.K. | 18 | 21 | 19.5 | +1.5 | 36 | 34.5 | +1.5 | -15 | -15.0 | +0.0 | 11 | 16.0 | -5.0 |
| 17 | Sivasspor | 18 | 15 | 15.8 | -0.8 | 38 | 32.9 | +5.1 | -23 | -17.1 | -5.9 | 8 | 14.8 | -6.8 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 18 | 23 | 19.1 | +3.9 | 43 | 41.9 | +1.1 | -20 | -22.7 | +2.7 | 9 | 14.0 | -5.0 |
| 19 | Adana Demirspor | 18 | 20 | 13.2 | +6.8 | 50 | 44.4 | +5.6 | -30 | -31.2 | +1.2 | 8 | 9.6 | -1.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beşiktaş | 5 | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | +7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 5 | 13 | 12.8 | +0.2 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | +12 | 8.4 | +3.6 | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 |
| 3 | Göztepe | 5 | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 | 11 | 6.2 | +4.8 | -3 | 4.8 | -7.8 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| 5 | Konyaspor | 5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | +0 | 3.6 | -3.6 | 6 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
| 6 | Rizespor | 5 | 16 | 10.8 | +5.2 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | +8 | 3.5 | +4.5 | 12 | 7.9 | +4.1 |
| 7 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 5 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 | 13 | 9.9 | +3.1 | -3 | 2.7 | -5.7 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 |
| 8 | Trabzonspor | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | +0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +4 | 0.9 | +3.1 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 |
| 10 | Kasımpaşa | 5 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 0.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 |
| 11 | Samsunspor | 5 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | +6 | -0.1 | +6.1 | 13 | 6.8 | +6.2 |
| 12 | Bodrum FK | 5 | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | -5 | -0.4 | -4.6 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 13 | Gaziantep F.K. | 5 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | -3 | -2.2 | -0.8 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 |
| 14 | Antalyaspor | 5 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | -4 | -3.3 | -0.7 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Sivasspor | 5 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | -4 | -4.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 14 | 10.4 | +3.6 | -10 | -5.1 | -4.9 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 17 | Kayserispor | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | -2 | -6.0 | +4.0 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 5 | 14 | 6.5 | +7.5 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5 | +2 | -7.0 | +9.0 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 |
| 19 | Adana Demirspor | 5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 15 | 15.5 | -0.5 | -8 | -9.9 | +1.9 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
Galatasaray overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, with 91 goals from chances worth 78.7 xG, a gap of 12.3. Fenerbahçe were next on 11.3.
Bodrum FK underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, with 26 goals from chances worth 40.4 xG, a shortfall of 14.4. Alanyaspor were next on 5.7.
Galatasaray were the luckiest side in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, with 95 points from performances worth 70.4 xPts, 24.6 more than their chances deserved. Fenerbahçe were next on 10.5.
Adana Demirspor were the unluckiest side in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, with 14 points from performances worth 27.1 xPts, 13.1 short of what they deserved. Göztepe were next on 9.8.
Fenerbahçe would be top of the Super Lig in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 72.5 xPts from 77.7 xG created and 33.8 conceded across 35 matches. Galatasaray were next on 70.4.
Galatasaray created the most xG in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, 78.7 from 36 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Fenerbahçe were next on 77.7.
Adana Demirspor created the least xG in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, 32.5 from 36 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Antalyaspor were next on 35.9.
Adana Demirspor conceded the most xG in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, 76.6 from 36 matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Hatayspor were next on 75.8.
Fenerbahçe conceded the least xG in the Super Lig in 2024/2025, 33.8 from 35 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Beşiktaş were next on 36.9.
Super Lig teams averaged 1.43 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 341 matches played, and scored 1.47 goals a game from it.
Super Lig teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.61 a game against 1.24 away, a home advantage of +0.37.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 35 | 89 | 77.7 | +11.3 | 38 | 33.8 | +4.2 | +51 | 43.9 | +7.1 | 83 | 72.5 | +10.5 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 36 | 91 | 78.7 | +12.3 | 31 | 39.4 | -8.4 | +60 | 39.3 | +20.7 | 95 | 70.4 | +24.6 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 36 | 59 | 64.5 | -5.5 | 36 | 36.9 | -0.9 | +23 | 27.5 | -4.5 | 62 | 65.7 | -3.7 |
| 4 | Göztepe | 36 | 59 | 60.9 | -1.9 | 50 | 42.9 | +7.1 | +9 | 18.0 | -9.0 | 50 | 59.8 | -9.8 |
| 5 | Samsunspor | 36 | 55 | 48.9 | +6.1 | 41 | 40.9 | +0.1 | +14 | 8.0 | +6.0 | 64 | 54.5 | +9.5 |
| 6 | Rizespor | 36 | 52 | 53.3 | -1.3 | 58 | 46.6 | +11.4 | -6 | 6.8 | -12.8 | 49 | 53.8 | -4.8 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 36 | 58 | 53.7 | +4.3 | 45 | 48.0 | -3.0 | +13 | 5.7 | +7.3 | 51 | 52.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Kasımpaşa | 36 | 62 | 56.8 | +5.2 | 63 | 54.3 | +8.7 | -1 | 2.5 | -3.5 | 47 | 52.3 | -5.3 |
| 9 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 36 | 60 | 56.6 | +3.4 | 56 | 51.0 | +5.0 | +4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 54 | 51.6 | +2.4 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 36 | 43 | 48.7 | -5.7 | 50 | 47.0 | +3.0 | -7 | 1.7 | -8.7 | 45 | 49.3 | -4.3 |
| 11 | Konyaspor | 36 | 45 | 45.4 | -0.4 | 50 | 49.6 | +0.4 | -5 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 46 | 47.7 | -1.7 |
| 12 | Kayserispor | 36 | 45 | 49.7 | -4.7 | 57 | 56.3 | +0.7 | -12 | -6.6 | -5.4 | 45 | 47.2 | -2.2 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 36 | 26 | 40.4 | -14.4 | 43 | 46.9 | -3.9 | -17 | -6.5 | -10.5 | 37 | 46.0 | -9.0 |
| 14 | Eyüpspor | 35 | 51 | 48.1 | +2.9 | 46 | 53.3 | -7.3 | +5 | -5.2 | +10.2 | 52 | 45.1 | +6.9 |
| 15 | Gaziantep F.K. | 36 | 45 | 43.6 | +1.4 | 50 | 59.8 | -9.8 | -5 | -16.1 | +11.1 | 45 | 40.2 | +4.8 |
| 16 | Antalyaspor | 36 | 37 | 35.9 | +1.1 | 62 | 54.0 | +8.0 | -25 | -18.0 | -7.0 | 44 | 39.2 | +4.8 |
| 17 | Sivasspor | 36 | 44 | 36.7 | +7.3 | 60 | 59.6 | +0.4 | -16 | -22.9 | +6.9 | 35 | 36.0 | -1.0 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 36 | 47 | 40.2 | +6.8 | 74 | 75.8 | -1.8 | -27 | -35.5 | +8.5 | 26 | 32.0 | -6.0 |
| 19 | Adana Demirspor | 36 | 34 | 32.5 | +1.5 | 92 | 76.6 | +15.4 | -58 | -44.2 | -13.8 | 14 | 27.1 | -13.1 |