No, Başakşehir have taken 35 points over their last 20 Super Lig games, within 2.46 of the 32.54 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Başakşehir create 1.75 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 34.92 in all, and have scored 32 goals from those chances, 2.92 fewer than that xG would expect.
Başakşehir allow 1.40 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 28.08 in all, and have conceded 22 goals from those chances, 6.08 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Eldor Shomurodov has the most expected goals (xG) for Başakşehir over their last 20 Super Lig games, 9.51 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 14 goals; Davie Selke is next with 5.64 xG.
Başakşehir's results and their chances agree, within 2.5 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 34.92 | 32 | -2.92 | 28.08 | 22 | +6.08 | 32.54 | 35 | +2.46 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 18.66 | 17 | -1.66 | 13.27 | 13 | +0.27 | 16.99 | 17 | +0.01 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.51 | 8 | +0.49 | 7.57 | 9 | -1.43 | 7.43 | 7 | -0.43 |
| Home | 11 | 22.04 | 25 | +2.96 | 11.99 | 6 | +5.99 | 21.09 | 26 | +4.91 |
| Away | 9 | 12.88 | 7 | -5.88 | 16.09 | 16 | +0.09 | 11.45 | 9 | -2.45 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Super Lig | Gaziantep (H) | 2-1 | 1.73 | 1.58 | 1.48 | 3 | W |
| 11 Oct | Super Lig | Konyaspor (A) | 0-0 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 1.60 | 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | Super Lig | Gençler (H) | 4-0 | 2.46 | 0.48 | 2.56 | 3 | W |
| 13 Sep | Super Lig | Amed SK (A) | 5-0 | 0.57 | 3.45 | 0.17 | 0 | L |
| 4 Sep | Super Lig | Galatasaray (H) | 2-3 | 1.87 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | Super Lig | Kasımpaşa (H) | 1-1 | 0.62 | 1.43 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 23 Aug | Super Lig | Trabzonspor (A) | 2-1 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 1.15 | 0 | L |
| 16 Aug | Super Lig | Kocaelispor (H) | 2-0 | 2.82 | 0.52 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| 16 May | Super Lig | Gaziantep (A) | 1-2 | 2.35 | 0.94 | 2.24 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | Super Lig | Samsunspor (H) | 3-0 | 3.45 | 0.45 | 2.77 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Super Lig | Fenerbahçe (A) | 3-1 | 1.00 | 3.05 | 0.40 | 0 | L |
| 24 Apr | Super Lig | Kasımpaşa (H) | 4-0 | 2.17 | 0.30 | 2.58 | 3 | W |
| 19 Apr | Super Lig | Trabzonspor (A) | 1-1 | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.35 | 1 | L |
| 11 Apr | Super Lig | Gençler (H) | 3-0 | 3.00 | 1.05 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 6 Apr | Super Lig | Kocaelispor (A) | 0-0 | 1.98 | 0.86 | 2.11 | 1 | W |
| 18 Mar | Super Lig | Antalyaspor (H) | 0-0 | 1.50 | 0.68 | 1.97 | 1 | W |
| 14 Mar | Super Lig | Galatasaray (A) | 3-0 | 0.48 | 2.42 | 0.31 | 0 | L |
| 7 Mar | Super Lig | Göztepe (H) | 2-1 | 0.57 | 3.21 | 0.20 | 3 | L |
| 27 Feb | Super Lig | Konyaspor (H) | 2-0 | 1.85 | 0.79 | 2.09 | 3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Super Lig | Alanyaspor (A) | 1-2 | 2.56 | 1.28 | 2.12 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldor Shomurodov | attacker | 20 | 1667 | 9.51 | 14 | +4.49 | 0.51 |
| Davie Selke | attacker | 16 | 680 | 5.64 | 7 | +1.36 | 0.75 |
| Umut Güneş | midfielder | 16 | 1240 | 0.20 | 1 | +0.80 | 0.01 |
| Christopher Operi | defender | 10 | 743 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.05 |
| Ömer Ali Şahiner | defender | 18 | 1311 | 0.61 | 1 | +0.39 | 0.04 |
| Amine Harit | attacker | 8 | 498 | 0.74 | 1 | +0.26 | 0.13 |
| Andreas Skov Olsen | attacker | 8 | 581 | 1.11 | 1 | -0.11 | 0.17 |
| Ivan Brnic | attacker | 17 | 736 | 1.21 | 1 | -0.21 | 0.15 |
| Bertuğ Yıldırım | attacker | 14 | 657 | 2.58 | 2 | -0.58 | 0.35 |
| Miguel Crespo | midfielder | 6 | 245 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.21 |
| Nuno Da Costa | attacker | 7 | 146 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.43 |
| Onur Ergün | midfielder | 13 | 268 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.26 |
| Kazımcan Karataş | defender | 9 | 670 | 0.84 | 0 | -0.84 | 0.11 |
| Umut Bozok | attacker | 5 | 176 | 0.91 | 0 | -0.91 | 0.47 |
| Abbosbek Fayzullaev | attacker | 13 | 644 | 2.24 | 1 | -1.24 | 0.31 |
| Yusuf Sarı | attacker | 16 | 983 | 2.66 | 1 | -1.66 | 0.24 |
| Olivier Kemen | midfielder | 19 | 1656 | 1.92 | 0 | -1.92 | 0.10 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 9.1 | 8 | 14.4 | 9 | 8.3 | 12 | +3.7 |
| 2 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 9 | 9 | 13.8 | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 11.2 | 16 | 11.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 4 | Galatasaray | 8 | 17.1 | 17 | 7.9 | 11 | 16.1 | 19 | +2.9 |
| 5 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 6.4 | 5 | 10.2 | 11 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 9.6 | 12 | 10.6 | 9 | 10.5 | 13 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Amed SK | 8 | 13.8 | 18 | 7.1 | 9 | 14.8 | 17 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 8 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Gençlerbirliği | 8 | 8.8 | 7 | 16.8 | 16 | 7 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 12.8 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 20.1 | 22 | 7.9 | 6 | 16.4 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 12 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 8 | 12.9 | 12 | 11.9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | -1 |
| 13 | Gaziantep F.K. | 8 | 9.3 | 8 | 13.1 | 12 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 14 | Rizespor | 8 | 10.1 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | 11.1 | 10 | -1.1 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 8 | 15.7 | 17 | 14.6 | 16 | 11.8 | 9 | -2.8 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 6.5 | 2 | 14.8 | 22 | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| 17 | Konyaspor | 8 | 8.1 | 4 | 9.8 | 9 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Samsunspor | 8 | 10.7 | 7 | 10.8 | 19 | 10.5 | 4 | -6.5 |