Brentford created the most in England this weekend: 3.87 expected goals against Tottenham, from a home side that scored three and could have had more. That is the headline number.
The more interesting one is 3.23, which is what West Ham generated at home to Charlton in the Championship. They lost 2-1. Charlton had 0.70 xG and took all three points.
That is the weekend in one fixture, and the reason this column exists. Below are the top five chance creators in each of the four English divisions, the biggest gaps between what teams deserved and what they got, and the early xG tables for the Championship, League One and League Two.
All figures are total expected goals from the weekend's fixtures, with the opponent's xG alongside for context.
| # | Team | xG | Scored | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brentford | 3.87 | 3 | Brentford 3-0 Tottenham (0.59) |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3.64 | 2 | Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool (1.27) |
| 3 | Brighton | 3.19 | 4 | Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa (0.33) |
| 4 | Manchester United | 2.19 | 0 | Hull City 2-0 Man Utd (0.99) |
| 5 | Manchester City | 2.13 | 2 | Man City 2-1 Bournemouth (0.57) |
Liverpool drawing 2-2 at Newcastle having created 3.64 to their hosts' 1.27 is the sort of result that looks like a title-race wobble and reads, in the numbers, like an away performance that deserved more. United's 2.19 without a goal at Hull is the opposite problem, and one we flagged in our Gameweek 1 review.
| # | Team | xG | Scored | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 3.23 | 1 | West Ham 1-2 Charlton (0.70) |
| 2 | Millwall | 2.93 | 3 | Millwall 3-0 Norwich (0.96) |
| 3 | Cardiff City | 2.81 | 2 | Derby 2-2 Cardiff (1.88) |
| 4 | Lincoln City | 2.44 | 1 | Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth (1.39) |
| 5 | Southampton | 2.43 | 3 | Southampton 3-1 Stoke (1.13) |
Three of those five failed to win. Lincoln lost 3-1 at home having created a full expected goal more than Portsmouth, and just outside the five, QPR drew 0-0 with Bolton having generated 2.09 xG to Bolton's 0.16 - the most lopsided chance count of the weekend anywhere in England.
| # | Team | xG | Scored | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockport County | 3.01 | 1 | Stockport 1-2 Blackpool (1.85) |
| 2 | Wycombe Wanderers | 2.26 | 1 | Wycombe 1-1 Plymouth (0.93) |
| 3 | Luton Town | 2.19 | 2 | Luton 2-2 Notts County (0.55) |
| 4 | Huddersfield Town | 2.06 | 1 | MK Dons 1-1 Huddersfield (1.38) |
| 5 | Blackpool | 1.85 | 2 | Stockport 1-2 Blackpool (3.01) |
Stockport against Blackpool was the weekend's clearest case of a game not going the way the chances did. Stockport created more than 3.0 xG at home, Blackpool created 1.85, and Blackpool won. Luton, meanwhile, drew a game in which they had four times their opponents' expected goals.
| # | Team | xG | Scored | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 3.42 | 5 | Bristol Rovers 5-3 Newport (0.64) |
| 2 | Colchester United | 2.48 | 2 | Colchester 2-1 Oldham (0.42) |
| 3 | York City | 2.19 | 1 | Rotherham 1-1 York (0.83) |
| 4 | Exeter City | 2.15 | 2 | Exeter 2-0 Accrington (0.85) |
| 5 | Crawley Town | 2.10 | 2 | Rochdale 1-2 Crawley (0.88) |
Bristol Rovers had the highest xG in the EFL and the highest score in the country, and the match still produced one of the strangest lines of the weekend: Newport scored three goals from 0.64 expected. Eight goals from a combined 4.06 xG is not a normal afternoon.
Two lists, both from this weekend, across all four divisions.
| Team | Goals | xG | Match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 3 | 0.64 | Bristol Rovers 5-3 Newport |
| Barnet | 3 | 1.38 | Shrewsbury 1-3 Barnet |
| Portsmouth | 3 | 1.39 | Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth |
| Notts County | 2 | 0.55 | Luton 2-2 Notts County |
| Charlton Athletic | 2 | 0.70 | West Ham 1-2 Charlton |
| Team | Goals | xG | Match |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 1 | 3.23 | West Ham 1-2 Charlton |
| Manchester United | 0 | 2.19 | Hull City 2-0 Man Utd |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0 | 2.09 | QPR 0-0 Bolton |
| Walsall | 0 | 2.03 | Walsall 0-0 Grimsby |
| Stockport County | 1 | 3.01 | Stockport 1-2 Blackpool |
None of this means the results were wrong. Finishing is a skill, goalkeepers have good days, and a 0.64 xG afternoon that yields three goals is a real three goals. What the gap tells you is how repeatable the performance was - and over a season, teams in the second list usually start scoring more.
Two games in. Everything below is a very small sample and should be read as a description of what has happened, not a projection of what will. Full, updating versions live at Championship xG, League One xG and League Two xG.
The tables are ordered by expected points - what a team's chances, and the chances they gave up, were worth on average rather than what the scoreline delivered.
| # | Team | xG | xGA | xPts | Actual pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall | 6.3 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 6 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 4.1 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 3 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 3.6 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 2 |
| 4 | Wolves | 3.6 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 4 |
| 5 | QPR | 4.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 4 |
| 6 | Southampton | 4.0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3 |
| 7 | West Ham United | 4.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 8 | West Bromwich Albion | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 6 |
Millwall are the only side in the division top of both tables: most expected points, and six actual points from two games. At the other end of the same list, Charlton have six points from 1.6 expected - the largest gap in the EFL - and West Ham have one point from 3.4.
| # | Team | xG | xGA | xPts | Actual pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheffield Wednesday | 4.5 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 3 |
| 2 | Luton Town | 3.9 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 4 |
| 3 | Huddersfield Town | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 4 | Wigan Athletic | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 0 |
| 5 | Reading | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 6 | Stockport County | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3 |
Wigan are the story here: fourth on expected points and pointless. Bradford, meanwhile, sit 18th on expected points with a maximum six.
| # | Team | xG | xGA | xPts | Actual pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walsall | 4.9 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4 |
| 2 | Chesterfield | 4.4 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bristol Rovers | 5.4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3 |
| 4 | York City | 4.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 5 | Northampton Town | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 6 | Crewe Alexandra | 3.2 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 6 |
League Two is the tightest of the three. Bristol Rovers have the division's best raw xG at 5.4 but only three points; Barnet and Crewe have maximum returns from mid-table expected-points figures.
If you want the numbers that update themselves rather than a weekend snapshot, the Championship, League One and League Two xG tables refresh as each round imports, and our EFL Best Bets column uses the same underlying model.