Every August produces a panic that turns out to be nothing and a shrug that turns out to be something. Sorting one from the other is the whole game. Here are the four clubs whose opening weekend asked the most awkward questions, with the caveat that stares out from every line below: it is one match.
Losing at Hull would be a poor afternoon in any circumstances. Losing 2-0 at a Hull side carrying a 92.5% relegation projection, with six of their players unavailable including their first-choice goalkeeper, is the sort of result that sets a tone.
Our season projection has United fourth, in a five-team fight for Champions League places separated by fractions of a point. In that context a September of dropped points against the division's weaker sides is far more expensive than one bad Saturday, and the front three has yet to look like a settled unit.
Roberto De Zerbi's first league game ended in a 3-0 defeat at Brentford. It is worth being fair about the circumstances: Kulusevski, Xavi Simons and Odobert were all unavailable, the shape was new, and Brentford's ground has been eating visiting managers' plans for years.
The concern is not the scoreline, it is that Spurs arrived in the best form of any side in the division's top half and were beaten comfortably by a team the model rates below them. New managers are usually given a month. This one has three fixtures before anybody sensible draws a conclusion.
Villa went to Brighton having won four of their last five, and lost 4-0 with João Gomes sent off. The model had preferred Brighton on underlying numbers, but nobody had this.
The mitigation is obvious enough: a red card reshapes a game. The worry is that Brighton were without three of their best attacking players and still scored four, which is not the sort of afternoon a side with European ambitions can file under bad luck.
Forest were 44.8% favourites at home and lost 1-0 to Leeds, who the model made 26.3%. It was the only away win of the weekend, and Forest failed to score at a ground where they will need to be difficult to beat all season.
Of the four clubs here this is the least alarming and the most quietly annoying: a mid-table side dropping three points at home to another mid-table side is exactly how mid-table happens.
Crystal Palace lost 2-0 at Everton and will not be losing sleep. The model had that fixture as the likeliest draw of the round at 31%, and an away defeat at a rebuilt Everton in front of a crowd desperate for a lift is close to the median outcome rather than a warning sign.
Every projection on this page updates continuously through the season on the Premier League outrights page. Ask again in October.