Everton host Newcastle United at Hill Dickinson Stadium in the Carabao Cup fourth round (the last 16) on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 19:45 UK. Both clubs may change some players. Neither rotated heavily in the last round, with Everton making five changes and Newcastle United three, but the percentages and predicted score below come from season-long numbers that assume each club's usual side, so a changed XI could move them. We make Everton 46% to win in 90 minutes, Newcastle United 28% and the draw 26%.
A tie that is level after 90 minutes goes to a penalty shoot-out. Everton won 1-0 at home to Wolves in the previous round and Newcastle United won 1-0 at Millwall.
Everton have lost their last two, going down 2-0 at Arsenal on 24 October and 0-2 to Chelsea at home a week earlier. Before that they drew 2-2 at Hull on 11 October, and in September they won 1-0 against Ipswich in the league and 1-0 against Wolves in this competition. Over their last ten games in all competitions they have won four, drawn four and lost two.
In the cup this season Everton have kept a clean sheet in every game, averaging 8 shots on target and 2.5 goals a game.
Newcastle United won 2-0 at Crystal Palace on 25 October after a 1-0 home defeat to Aston Villa on 17 October and a 4-1 loss at Coventry City on 12 October. Before that they beat Hull 2-1 on 19 September and lost 4-1 at Leeds on 14 September. They have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten games in all competitions.
Everton's previous Carabao Cup tie was a 1-0 home win over Wolverhampton Wanderers on 16 September, with Jordan Pickford in goal and an XI of Vitaliy Mykolenko, Michael Keane, Jake O'Brien, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, James Garner, Hayden Hackney, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Tyler Dibling and Thierno Barry. That was five changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 0-0 draw at Tottenham Hotspur on 12 September. Six of that cup XI (Mykolenko, Pickford, Barry, Garner, O'Brien and Dewsbury-Hall) started the 2-0 defeat at Arsenal on 24 October, so Everton may keep part of that group and change a few.
Newcastle United's previous cup tie was a 1-0 win at Millwall on 8 September, with Lukas Hornicek in goal and an XI of Fabian Schär, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Amar Dedić, Nico González, Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes and Yoane Wissa. That was three changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 2-2 home draw with AFC Bournemouth on 5 September. Eight of the Millwall XI (Barnes, Hall, Schär, Murphy, Willock, Hornicek, Dedić and González) started the 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on 25 October, so Newcastle may also keep most of that group.
The two clubs meet again in the Premier League on Monday 2 November, with Newcastle at home. After that Everton host Coventry City on Friday 6 November and Newcastle visit Fulham on Saturday 7 November.
Our possible starting lineup for Newcastle United below is the same eleven that started at Millwall, and Everton's has ten of the eleven that started against Wolves, with Jarrad Branthwaite in for Mykolenko.
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Branthwaite, Keane, O'Brien; Hackney, Garner; Dibling, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry
Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Hornicek; Dedić, Schär, Botman, Hall; Ramsey, Willock, González; Murphy, Barnes, Wissa
Thierno Barry has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, 10 in all, and is 1.33 at bet365 to do it again. Yoane Wissa has had two or more shots in each of his last five, 19 in all, an average of 3.8 a game with a high of 7, and is 1.44 at bet365 for two or more shots.
Harvey Barnes has also had two or more shots in each of his last five games, 15 in all, and is 1.40 at bet365 for the same line. Joe Willock has made at least one tackle in each of his last five games and is 1.20 at bet365 to make one here.
We back Everton to win in 90 minutes at 46%, against 28% for Newcastle United and 26% for the draw. The best prices are 2.20 on Everton with Ladbrokes, 3.50 on the draw with bet365 and 3.10 on Newcastle United with bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 2.20 (Ladbrokes) | 46% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 26% |
| Newcastle United win | 3.10 (bet365) | 28% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (Midnite) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (Coral) | 53% |
We predict a 1-1 draw on the season-long numbers, the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Everton the likelier winner in 90 minutes. We project 1.6 goals for Everton and 1.18 for Newcastle United and give both teams to score a 56% chance. Those figures assume each club's usual side, so a changed XI could move them either way.