Sunderland host Brentford at the Stadium of Light in the Carabao Cup fourth round (the last 16) on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 19:45 UK, with a place in the quarter-finals at stake. Both clubs are likely to rotate: in the previous round Sunderland made 11 changes from their league side and Brentford eight.
Our model makes Brentford 43% to win in 90 minutes, Sunderland 32% and the draw 25%, with 1-1 the likeliest single score. Those figures come from season-long numbers and assume each club's usual side, so a rotated tie is likelier to be closer and looser than they show.
Sunderland have not won in three. They drew 0-0 at home to Leeds on Sunday, drew 1-1 at Lech Poznań in the Europa League on 22 October and lost 2-0 at Bournemouth on 18 October. Before that they won 2-1 at Torreense in the Europa League on 15 October and lost 2-0 at home to Brighton on 10 October. That is three goals in their last five games, and their last ten in all competitions are three wins, three draws and four defeats. In the cup this season they have not conceded a goal.
Brentford have lost one of their last ten in all competitions, winning four and drawing five. The latest five are a 1-1 draw at Hull on Sunday, a 2-1 home defeat to Liverpool on 17 October, a 2-2 draw at Aston Villa on 10 October, a 3-0 home win over Chelsea on 18 September and a 2-1 win at Reading in this competition on 15 September. In the cup this season they have averaged four goals a game and conceded one, and both teams have scored in each of their cup games. The two sides drew 1-1 at Brentford in the Premier League on 5 September.
Sunderland's previous cup tie was a 1-0 home win over Hull City on 8 September, with Melker Ellborg in goal and an XI of Trai Hume, Dayann Methalie, Omar Alderete, Luke O'Nien, Chris Rigg, Jules Ahoka Jules, Jocelin Ta Bi, Chemsdine Talbi, Malick Fofana and Wilson Isidor.
That was 11 changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 1-1 draw at Brentford on 5 September, and none of that league XI kept their place. Three of the Hull XI (Hume, Rigg and O'Nien) started Sunday's draw with Leeds, so a rotated side on Wednesday is likely to mix league starters with squad players. Sunderland's next fixtures are a Premier League trip to Coventry City on Saturday 31 October and Dinamo Zagreb at home in the Europa League on Thursday 5 November.
Brentford's previous cup tie was a 2-1 win at Reading on 15 September, with Ellery Balcombe in goal and an XI of Michael Kayode, Kristoffer Ajer, Rico Henry, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Mamadou Sangaré, Mikkel Damsgaard, Fábio Carvalho, Dango Ouattara, Keane Lewis-Potter and Callum Wilson.
That was eight changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth on 12 September; only Sangaré, Ajer and Lewis-Potter kept their place. Five of the Reading XI (Ouattara, Sangaré, Ajer, Lewis-Potter and Kayode) started Sunday's draw at Hull, so a rotated side on Wednesday is likely to mix league starters with squad players. Brentford's next fixtures are Nottingham Forest at home on Saturday 31 October and a trip to Brighton on Sunday 8 November, both in the Premier League.
The possible starting lineups further down already lean on last round's players: Brentford's is the same eleven that started at Reading, and ten of Sunderland's started against Hull City.
Sunderland possible starting lineup:
Ellborg; O'Nien, Hume, Alderete; Methalie, Ahoka Jules, Ta Bi, Rigg; Talbi, Tuterov, Fofana
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Balcombe; Kayode, Ajer, Henry, Diouf; Sangaré, Damsgaard, Carvalho; Ouattara, Lewis-Potter, Wilson
Bookmakers have Brentford at 2.05 with Ladbrokes to win, Sunderland at 3.50 with bet365 and the draw at 3.60 with bet365. Our model agrees that Brentford are the likelier winners in 90 minutes, with the caveat above: its numbers are built on each club's season, not the changed sides we expect.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to win | 3.50 (bet365) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.60 (bet365) | 25% |
| Brentford to win | 2.05 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (Midnite) | 80% |
We predict Sunderland 1-1 Brentford on the model's numbers. That is the likeliest single score at 12%, with 1-2 next at 9%, though we make Brentford 43% to win against 32% for Sunderland. We project 1.4 goals for Sunderland and 1.6 for Brentford, and Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 20% of our simulations against 26% for Brentford.