Updated 2 November 2026.
Atlético Madrid and FC Bayern München meet at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Tuesday 3 November, with kick-off at 8pm UK, in the Champions League league phase. Atlético are 16th of 36 on 4 points and Bayern 14th on 5, and the two arrive with contrasting numbers: Atlético have conceded 3 goals in three games, Bayern have scored 10.
Bayern's Champions League games so far include a 3-3 draw at Viking and a 2-2 draw with Arsenal, and all three have gone over 2.5 goals. Atlético's include a 2-0 win over Man Utd and a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart. We make Bayern the likelier winners at 47% to Atlético's 30%, with 1-1 the likeliest single score.
Atlético sit 16th of 36 in the Champions League table with 4 points from 3 games: one win, one draw and one defeat, 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. Bayern are 14th with 5 points, having won once and drawn twice, with 10 scored and 5 against.
Atlético are unbeaten in their last five in all competitions. They beat Levante 2-0 on Saturday and Deportivo 1-0 the Saturday before, after a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart in the Champions League. In Europe they concede 1 goal a game, the 10th fewest of the 81 teams in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, and they have kept a clean sheet in a third of their games, the 13th highest rate. At the other end they average 1.33 goals, the 35th fewest.
Bayern have not lost in their last five either, though only two of them were wins. They drew 2-2 with Dortmund on Saturday, won 3-1 at Freiburg, drew 2-2 with Arsenal, hammered RB Leipzig 6-1 and drew 3-3 at Viking. They average 3.33 goals a game, the 5th most, and 8.33 shots on target, the 6th most. Every one of their three Champions League games has gone over 2.5 goals, and they win 8 corners a game, the 5th most. They concede 1.67 a game, the 33rd fewest.
Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Simeone, Barrios, Mendoza; Baena; Alvarez, David
FC Bayern München possible starting lineup:
Urbig; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Bischof, Karl, Brown; Kane
Harry Kane has had at least three shots in each of Bayern's three Champions League games, averaging 5 a game, and a shot on target in all three, averaging 2.3. Ladbrokes make a shot on target 1.25 and three or more shots 1.48.
Julián Alvarez has had two or more shots in each of Atlético's three Champions League games, averaging 2.7, and is 1.25 at bet365 for two or more again.
Dayot Upamecano has made at least one tackle in each of Bayern's three Champions League games, averaging 3 a game. One or more fouls from him is 1.57, with two or more at 3.50.
Marcos Llorente has made at least one tackle in each of Atlético's three Champions League games, averaging 2.7 a game.
We back Bayern, who are 2.45 at bet365 to win in Madrid. Atlético are 2.60 at Ladbrokes and the draw is 4.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 2.60 | 30% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23% |
| FC Bayern München win | 2.45 | 47% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 68% |
We project 1.97 goals for Bayern and 1.55 for Atlético, and the likeliest single scoreline is Atlético Madrid 1-1 FC Bayern München at 9.5%, so that is our prediction. We still make Bayern the more likely winners overall, at 47% to 30%, and 1-2 is the next scoreline at 8.9%. We give both teams to score a 68% chance, and over 2.5 goals 68% too.
We project 5.70 shots on target for Bayern against 4.98 for Atlético.
Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München in the 2026/27 Champions League league phase kicks off at 20:00 UK on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid. Atlético are 16th of 36 and Bayern 14th.
We predict Atlético Madrid 1-1 FC Bayern München in the 2026/27 Champions League, the likeliest scoreline at 9.5%. Bayern are still the likelier winners overall, with a 47% chance against 30% for Atlético.
Bayern are favourites for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München in the 2026/27 Champions League, with a 47% win chance in our model against 30% for Atlético Madrid and 23% for a draw. We project 1.97 goals for Bayern and 1.55 for Atlético.
Our model gives both teams to score a 68% chance in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München in the 2026/27 Champions League, and over 2.5 goals also comes in at 68%. All 3 of Bayern's league phase games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Harry Kane has had at least 3 shots in each of Bayern's 3 games in the 2026/27 Champions League, averaging 5 a game, ahead of the match against Atlético Madrid on 3 November. He has also had a shot on target in all 3, averaging 2.3.
Ahead of Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München, Bayern are 14th of 36 with 5 points and Atlético Madrid are 16th with 4 points after 3 games each in the 2026/27 Champions League league phase.
Atlético Madrid's possible starting lineup against Bayern München in the 2026/27 Champions League on 3 November features Oblak, Llorente, Grimaldo, Alvarez and David, while Bayern's has Urbig, Upamecano, Tah, Kimmich and Kane leading the line.