FC Bayern München host RB Leipzig at the Allianz Arena on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 5.30pm UK. It is the Bundesliga's most prolific attack against the second most prolific, and the home side go in having conceded only four league goals all season.
Bayern are 3rd in the Bundesliga on 11 points from five games, unbeaten with three wins and two draws. Leipzig are 5th on 9 points, with three wins and two defeats. Between them they have scored 31 league goals in ten matches, and the model expects plenty more here.
Bayern have scored 16 and conceded 4 in the league, which is 3.2 goals a game, the most in the division, and the fewest against at 0.8. They also lead the league for shots on target at 9 a game and for corners at 9.4. The last two games have been draws: 2-2 at Augsburg on 10 October, then 3-3 at Viking in the Champions League on Tuesday. Before that came a 7-0 win over Union Berlin and a 2-1 win at Elversberg.
Leipzig average 3 goals a game, the 2nd most, and have conceded 5 in five. They have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their league games, the highest rate in the division, and only 20% of their games have seen both teams score, the 2nd lowest. Their form is lively: a 6-0 win over Frankfurt last Saturday, then a 1-0 win over PSV in the Champions League on Tuesday. Before that came a 2-0 defeat at Leverkusen and a 5-0 win over Hamburg.
Both sides play in Europe in midweek and both come in on the back of a high-scoring run. Eight in ten of each side's league games have gone over 2.5 goals. Leipzig have the 2nd most shots on target in the league at 7 a game.
FC Bayern München possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Saibari, DÃaz; Kane
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Vandevoordt; Baku, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; Banzuzi, El Aynaoui, Maksimovic; Nusa, Nkunku, Rômulo
Harry Kane has had three or more shots in four straight games and a shot on target in each of them, averaging 5.5 shots a game across his last five. He has hit two or more shots on target in four of those five, and bet365 offer 1.40 on him to do it again.
Luis DÃaz has put a shot on target in all of his last five games, and Michael Olise has done the same, averaging 2.4 shots on target a game over that run. DÃaz is 1.29 at bet365 to find the target again.
For Leipzig, Antonio Nusa has had two or more shots in each of his last five games, averaging 2.4, and is 1.83 at Ladbrokes to make it six. Ezechiel Banzuzi has made two or more tackles in five straight games, averaging 2.6, and is 1.22 at bet365 to keep that going.
We back Bayern to win at 1.25 with Ladbrokes. Our model gives them a 70% chance, with a draw at 16% and a Leipzig win at 15%. The bookmakers agree on the favourite, so the interest is in the player markets above.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern win | 1.25 (Ladbrokes) | 70% |
| Draw | 7.50 (bet365) | 16% |
| RB Leipzig win | 10.00 (bet365) | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (Ladbrokes) | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 83% |
We expect 3.07 goals from Bayern and 1.43 from Leipzig, and a 3-1 win is the likeliest single scoreline at 8%, narrowly ahead of 2-1. Both teams score in 73% of our simulations, even though Leipzig's own league games have rarely produced that. Over 3.5 goals comes in at 66%. Leipzig keep a clean sheet in only 5% of our runs, while Bayern manage one in 24%.
Our prediction is Bayern 3-1 RB Leipzig.