Updated 5 November 2026.
FSV Mainz 05 host FC Bayern München at the Mewa Arena on Saturday 7 November, with kick-off at 14:30 UK. The league leaders arrive unbeaten after eight games, 18 points and 27 goals scored, and they meet a Mainz side that has conceded three or more goals in four of its last five league games.
Mainz sit 9th in the Bundesliga table on 10 points from eight games, with three wins, one draw and four defeats. Bayern are 1st on 18 points with five wins and three draws, and have conceded only eight times.
Mainz have scored and conceded freely. They won 4-3 at Gladbach, lost 4-3 at home to Leverkusen, beat Schalke 1-0 away, then lost 2-3 to Bremen before a 4-1 defeat at Elversberg last time out. Their goals against average of 2.13 per game is the 5th most in the division, and they have a 63% both-teams-to-score rate, the 7th highest. At the other end, they score 2.13 goals per game, the 6th most. They also foul 13.13 times a game, the 3rd most, and pick up 2.75 cards a game, also the 3rd most.
Bayern have not lost. They won 6-1 against RB Leipzig, drew 2-2 with Arsenal in the Champions League, won 3-1 at Freiburg, drew 2-2 with Dortmund and then won 2-0 at Atlético in midweek. They average 3.38 goals a game, the most in the league, with the most shots on target (9.5) and the most corners (8.63). Seven of their eight league games have gone over 2.5 goals, an 88% rate that is the highest in the Bundesliga. Bayern pick up 1 card a game, the 2nd fewest in the league.
Bayern concede 1 goal a game, the 2nd fewest in the league, yet both teams have scored in six of their eight league games, the 3rd highest rate. Their shots on target average of 9.5 a game is the most in the Bundesliga.
FSV Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Da Costa, Gruber, Potulski, Caci; Sano, Nebel, Widmer; Amiri, Tietz, Becker
FC Bayern München possible starting lineup:
Urbig; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Karl, Brown; Kane
Phillip Tietz has had a shot on target in eight straight league games, and a shot in all eight, averaging 3.8 shots a game. He is 1.67 at bet365 for a shot on target here.
Harry Kane has had two or more shots in eight straight games, averaging 4.6, and 2+ shots is 1.05 at bet365.
Michael Olise has registered three or more shots in six straight games, averaging 4.7, and 3+ shots is 1.30 at bet365.
Dayot Upamecano has had a shot in each of his last five and a shot on target in four straight, and a shot on target is 4.00 at bet365. A foul is 1.57.
Joshua Kimmich has had a shot in each of his last five and is 1.44 at bet365 for a shot here. For Mainz, Sheraldo Becker has made a tackle in four of his last five, and a tackle is 1.30 at bet365.
We back Bayern to win, at 70% in our model. They are 1.33 at bet365, with Mainz 7.50 at midnite and the draw 6.50 at bet365. We make both teams to score 72% (1.44 at bet365) and over 2.5 goals 82% (1.22 at bet365).
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mainz win | 7.50 (midnite) | 14% |
| Draw | 6.50 (bet365) | 16% |
| Bayern win | 1.33 (bet365) | 70% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 82% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.06 (bet365) | 94% |
We predict a 1-3 win for Bayern, which is the likeliest single scoreline at 7.7%, with 1-2 just behind at 7.6%. We project 3.06 goals for Bayern against 1.41 for Mainz, and we give Mainz a 5% chance of a clean sheet and Bayern 24%.
Mainz vs Bayern in the 2026/27 Bundesliga kicks off at 14:30 UK on Saturday 7 November at the Mewa Arena, with 9th-placed Mainz on 10 points hosting league leaders Bayern München on 18 points after 8 games each.
Our prediction for Mainz vs Bayern in the 2026/27 Bundesliga is a 1-3 win for Bayern, the likeliest scoreline at 7.7%. We give Bayern a 70% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Mainz 14%.
Our model gives a 72% chance of both teams scoring in Mainz vs Bayern in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, with over 2.5 goals at 82%. Seven of Bayern's eight league games have gone over 2.5 goals, and Mainz have conceded 17 in eight.
Before Mainz vs Bayern in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, Bayern lead in 1st place with 18 points from 8 games, unbeaten with five wins and three draws. Mainz are 9th on 10 points from 8 games, with three wins, one draw and four defeats.
Ahead of Mainz vs Bayern in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, Phillip Tietz has had at least 1 shot on target in 8 straight league games. He averages 3.8 shots a game over that run and is 1.67 at bet365 to have a shot on target against Bayern.
Predicted lineups for Mainz vs Bayern in the 2026/27 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026: FSV Mainz 05 may start Zentner; Da Costa, Gruber, Potulski, Caci; Sano, Nebel, Widmer; Amiri, Tietz, Becker. FC Bayern München may start Urbig; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Karl, Brown; Kane.