FC Barcelona welcome Real Madrid to Spotify Camp Nou on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 20:00 UK. Barcelona sit 1st with nine wins from nine and 39 goals scored. Real Madrid are 3rd on 21 points, six behind, with two defeats in the league.
Both sides have conceded just nine all season, and Madrid have scored 23 themselves. We expect a high-scoring game, with both teams to score at 71%.
Barcelona have won nine league games out of nine. They went down 4-2 at PSG in the Champions League on 20 October, their only defeat in their last ten matches, after a 5-2 win at Betis and a 4-1 win at Galatasaray in the days before. They score 4.33 goals a game in La Liga, the most in the division, and top the league for shots on target at 8.44 a game and for corners at 7.33. At the back they've conceded 1.00 a game, the 3rd fewest, and kept a clean sheet in 44% of their matches, the 2nd highest rate.
Real Madrid have won seven of nine in La Liga and four in a row in all competitions since a 2-1 defeat at Atlético on 20 September. They beat Villarreal 1-0, came through a 4-3 game at Roma, then won 4-1 against Sevilla and 4-1 against RB Leipzig on Wednesday. Their goals average of 2.56 is the 2nd most in the league, and they have the 2nd most shots on target too. Both teams to score has landed in 67% of their games, the 4th highest rate.
Barcelona last played on Tuesday, at PSG, and Madrid on Wednesday, at home to Leipzig.
FC Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Joan GarcÃa; Cancelo, CubarsÃ, Gerard MartÃn, Xavi Espart; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, FermÃn López, Gordon; Raphinha
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Rüdiger, Huijsen, Konaté, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Valverde; Bellingham, Diomande; Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé has had at least one shot in nine straight games, averaging 5.4 shots a game across the run. He is 1.02 at midnite for a shot.
Lamine Yamal has had three or more shots in eight consecutive games, averaging 5.8 across the run. That market is 1.12 at ladbrokes.
Raphinha has had at least one shot in eight in a row, averaging 3.3 across the run, and is 1.01 at midnite for another.
Anthony Gordon has had a shot on target in four of his last five games, with four in each of two of them and 12 in total. A shot on target is 1.22 at bet365.
Ibrahima Konaté has committed a foul in seven straight games, averaging 1.6. That's 1.33 at midnite.
We back Barcelona to win, and the best price is 1.65 at coral. The best price on a draw is 5.75 at bet365 and Real Madrid are 4.00, also at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 1.65 (coral) | 58% |
| Draw | 5.75 (bet365) | 20% |
| Real Madrid win | 4.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.25 (bet365) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.17 (bet365) | 74% |
We predict Barcelona 2-1. We project 2.4 goals for Barcelona and 1.48 for Madrid. 1-1 is the next likeliest score at 7.9%, ahead of 3-1 at 7.0%. Barcelona's 89% over 2.5 rate is the highest in La Liga, and Madrid's 78% is the 2nd highest.
Dean Huijsen has made at least one tackle in six straight games for Madrid and is 1.20 at bet365 to make it seven. Xavi Espart has had a shot in six straight for Barcelona and is 1.50 at bet365.