Wolverhampton Wanderers host West Bromwich Albion at 12:00 UK on Sunday 20 September at Molineux, in the Black Country derby. It is the biggest fixture of the Championship weekend and, on one number at least, potentially the most fractious of the season so far.
The referee is averaging six yellow cards a game. More on that below, because it is the single most striking figure attached to this match.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are third in the Championship for goals scored at 2.33 a game, and 83 per cent of their matches have gone past two and a half goals - fifth-highest in the division. They are not tight at the back either, conceding 1.67 and ranking eighteenth for it. The run reads 4-1 against Stoke, a 4-2 defeat at West Ham United, 2-2 at Birmingham City, a 1-0 win at Sheffield United and a 1-0 defeat at Everton.
West Bromwich Albion are the opposite proposition in almost every column. Third in the division for goals conceded at 1.00 a game, fifth for clean sheets, and twenty-second of twenty-four for matches clearing two and a half goals at 43 per cent. The oddity in their form is the scoreline: they have scored exactly one goal in each of their last five - 1-1 with Queens Park Rangers, 1-0 at Derby County, 1-0 against Watford, 1-1 with Charlton Athletic and a 3-1 defeat at Middlesbrough. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.62 goals for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 0.88 for West Bromwich Albion, a combined 2.50 that lands precisely on the line. Wolves to win is rated at 54 per cent against a price of 4/5 implying 55, and over 2.5 goals at 45 per cent against 10/11.
Nothing in the match markets clears its price, and that is worth saying plainly rather than talking around. The value here, if there is any, is not in the result or the goals - it is in the cards, and the reason is the man in the middle.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Joshua Smith, who has averaged 6 yellow cards and 24 fouls a game across his three Championship matches this season. Six is a remarkable number at this level, and he has drawn a derby.
What makes it interesting rather than merely loud is how differently the two clubs are carded. Wolverhampton Wanderers pick up 1.00 a game, twenty-second of twenty-four - among the cleanest records in the division. West Bromwich Albion are eighth at 2.29, and the model projects 2.42 for them today against 1.65 for Wolves. If the referee runs to his average, the cards are weighted heavily one way.
On the player markets, Marshall Munetsi has committed at least one foul in six straight games for Wolves, the longest streak in the fixture, with Andre and Mateus Mane both on four in a row beside him. Callum Styles has made two or more tackles in four consecutive matches for West Bromwich Albion.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are the better attacking side by a distance and are at home, but West Bromwich Albion have the third-best defensive record in the division and have conceded more than once only twice all season.
The read is a narrow Wolves win or a draw, with the goals line genuinely balanced - a team whose matches clear 2.5 in 83 per cent of cases against one where they do so in 43. The cards market is where this fixture is most likely to produce something the price has not accounted for.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.